926
FXUS61 KPBZ 010521
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
121 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry this week with a warming trend. Uncertainty
increases this weekend, with the next substantive rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Much of this week will be defined by a transition from eastern
troughing to eastern ridging, which will generally correspond to
a warming trend. But details will determine what each day looks
like.

For today into Tuesday, the New England trough will linger, with
a shortwave passage late today through Tuesday. In theory, this
would provide some ascent, but the moisture starved column may
only be able to muster some cumulus at the top of the mixed
layer today with high clouds south of I-80. Late Tuesday into
Tuesday afternoon, the core of the 500mb shortwave will move
overhead, providing some non- zero rain chances for the high
terrain with ridge-top convergence, and the steepest lapse
rates, though plentiful dry air above the LCL will still make
widespread convention difficult. The highest chance for any
showers peaks at 30% in the WV mountains. Temperatures will sit
near-normal.

Wednesday into Thursday, clusters turn bi-modal but both spell a
similar outcome here. In one scenario, the trough progresses
east and allows ridging to ensue. In another, a low closes off
and lingers to the south/southeast, allowing ridging overtop of
it. Both scenarios show a warming trend with dry conditions.

By Friday, all ensemble members show ridging winning out with
the highest confidence in temperatures topping 80F with
predominately dry conditions. Forecast uncertainty increases
late Friday into the weekend with one scenario showing
continued ridging with well-above average temperatures and
predominately dry conditions. The other scenario would be a
central CONUS ridge development promoting weak eastern
troughing, shoving the northeast back into a frontal zone,
accompanied by more substantive rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected throughout the period. A mix of high clouds and
high-based cumulus are expected through the period. High clouds
are most likely to the south with cumulus most likely to the
north. Winds will start calm to light and out of the north this
morning, increasing up to 10kts by afternoon, decreasing and
veering slightly overnight again with clouds dissipating.

Outlook...
A high probability for an extended period of VFR through Friday,
save a slight chance of a terrain-drivern shower for LBE/MGW
Tuesday morning/afternoon. Restriction chances increase in to
the weekend, but forecast confidence remains low.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Milcarek
AVIATION...Milcarek