765
FXUS61 KPBZ 281659
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1259 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light rain shower/sprinkles chances increased slightly this
afternoon. No other major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mostly dry stretch of weather through Thursday with
warming temperatures, before a late week front returns
precipitation chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wraparound moisture/clouds from the lingering nor`easter will
continue to spin across our region today in northerly flow. A
few sprinkles or light rain showers remain possible near and
north of Pittsburgh this afternoon, especially in upslope-prone
regions, but limited lift and instability will keep any
precipitation totals very light. Temperatures should continue to
run a few degrees below climatology, save for areas near ZZV
that are receiving more sunshine and will be a bit closer to
normal.

The upper low associated with the coastal system will drift
northward across southern New England tonight towards the Gulf
of Maine, finally devolving into an open wave over the Canadian
Maritimes tomorrow night. Clouds will begin to break tonight as
this process begins. Any locations that manages to clear may
quickly fog in given the nearly saturated boundary layer and a
very weak surface pressure gradient.

The cloud decrease continues Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid-level
ridging crosses the Upper Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure
also arrives and remains in control into Thursday. The increased
sunshine and rising heights will push temperatures back above
normal while maintaining dry conditions. NBM probabilities for
80F or greater high temperatures that day remain in the 55 to
80 percent range for most non-ridge locations south of I-80.
Dewpoints in the lower 60s that day, however, point to less heat
stress - probabilities for Moderate or higher HeatRisk values
remain under 20 percent for the most part.

500mb flow flattens after Thursday as a shortwave trough crosses
eastern Canada. Strength and timing issues remain with this
disturbance, although most of the uncertainty lies to our north.
That said, at least scattered shower activity becomes more
likely Thursday night/Friday in the moistening warm sector with
an approaching front, with rain chances lingering into the
weekend. Severe weather potential looks muted by meager
instability, and probabilities for problematic rainfall totals
remain quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Except for ZZV, which is enjoying VFR conditions, MVFR ceilings
will linger at most TAF sites into the evening. Some patchy
light rain and drizzle will continue over western PA terminals
as well, potentially dropping ceilings to IFR levels at times.
Some improvement to upper-end MVFR heights, or even VFR, is
possible during the evening.

Overnight, clouds should begin to break with the nor`easter
pulling further offshore. Given the saturated boundary layer and
light wind, stratus and radiation fog formation is forecast
towards 06Z at sites that manage to clear briefly. Do expect
IFR to LIFR in fog for most locations Tuesday morning.

After fog lifts Tuesday mid morning, ceilings should rise to VFR
levels by the afternoon. There is potential for a repeat of
radiation fog late Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Outlook...
VFR is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Restrictions are
possible Friday with showers returning.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...CL