368
FXUS61 KPBZ 111150
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
750 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and isolated light precipitation chances with a low
pressure system over the Great Lakes. A coastal low may increase
the chances of light rain showers east of Pittsburgh after
midnight. Dry and warm conditions expected Tuesday into
Wednesday with a building ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Increasing clouds today with a low pressure disturbance
- Light precipitation chances north of Pittsburgh
---------------------------------------------------------------

GOES-19 satellite imagery shows increasing cloud coverage
associated with a low pressure disturbance centered over the
Great Lakes. Given the presence of abundant dry air and weak
atmospheric forcing, precipitation chances remain low and will
primarily be confided near the I-80 corridor today.

Temperatures around and south of Pittsburgh are expected to
trend slightly above average under southwest flow. Meanwhile,
areas north of Pittsburgh will likely experience near-average
temperatures (mid to low-60s) with a prolonged period of cloud
cover and noticeable cold advection over the next 6 hours as the
low`s center tracks across Lake Erie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rainfall through Monday favors northern and eastern areas.
----------------------------------------------------------------

The mentioned factors in the TONIGHT period take shape for
Sunday and into Monday. The further track east will mean that
the bulk of the precip will be east of the ridges. Rain chances
peak across our eastern ridge counties Sunday and Sunday night
as energy transfers to the coastal low (30-50%). POPs in the
Pittsburgh Metro peak between 20-30% on Sunday and quickly fall
off the further west you go. At this point it looks as though
northern and eastern counties see the highest chances for
showers during this time. Rainfall totals are likely to be lower
across our area, with most of the rain falling across our
eastern counties (0.10-0.30") and then a very sharp gradient
immediately west as totals decline to a few hundredths across
the remainder of western PA. Instability is quite low but there
could be a couple of rumbles of thunder Saturday night mainly
in the far northeastern parts of the forecast area. The overall
message is a lessening trend of precip amounts and this is
confirmed by the NBM probs suggesting that the far eastern tier
of counties has a 30% to 50% probability of 0.25 inches in 48
hours.

Temperatures for highs and lows on Sunday and Monday will
feature near normal values. If anything the daytime highs are
near or 3-5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry/warm weather continues into Tuesday
- Uncertainty builds mid-week with large-scale pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A persistent ridge axis east of the Rocky Mountains, reaching
into the Ohio River Valley, will bring dry weather and warmer-
than-average temperatures through Tuesday.

By mid-week, it remains uncertain if a trough will form over the
Great Lakes or if the ridge will stay, and long-range ensemble
temperatures indicate about a 10-degree spread between the 25th
and 75th percentile. Should a trough pattern dominate, freezing
conditions could return, accompanied by lake-enhanced
precipitation under a northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOES-19 satellite depicts increasing status clouds that range
from 5-7kft this morning. Light precipitation, drizzle, may
track in the vicinity of DUJ/FKL through late morning. However,
confidence in measurable precipitation is low given weak
forcing and lingering dry air.

A coastal low tracking up the eastern seaboard could return
restrictions and potential for showers Sunday morning. There
will likely be an east-west cutoff of to the restrictions with
the highest probability lying farther east, but some uncertainty
exists with how far west sufficient moisture exists.

.OUTLOOK...

Probabilities for ceiling restrictions and showers will remain
highest farther east with an east/west cutoff likely through
late Sunday/early Monday.

High pressure will build back into the region midweek.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/AK
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/Hefferan