863
FXUS61 KPBZ 140524
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
124 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions are expected Tuesday with a building
ridge. Frost and freeze potential builds Wednesday and Thursday
night. Above average temperatures expected over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Patchy fog possible across eastern Ohio/northern WV this
  morning
- High confidence in dry conditions
---------------------------------------------------------------

Sharp delineation between clear (west) and overcast (east)
skies lies just east of the PA state line this morning.
Subsidence should slowly erode the cloud cover through the
morning, though this is fighting moisture in northeasterly
flow. Areas that remain clear with calm conditions through the
overnight (i.e. valleys across Ohio and the WV Panhandle) may
develop patchy fog closer to sunrise.

Widespread 40s are expected for morning lows, generally a few
degrees above average.

Central CONUS ridge axis will slowly shift east into the Ohio
Valley today. This will support above-average temperatures and
dry conditions. Tonight, a dry cold front will cross the area,
though the only noticeable change will be an increase in cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in dry conditions
- Frost/freeze possible Wednesday night and Thursday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

Confidence remains high in dry conditions through the period as
a result of continued high pressure. Tonight`s dry cold front,
along with decreasing heights as a result of amplifying central
CONUS ridge, will usher in cooler, but still above- average,
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will
remain firmly planted across the Great Lakes through the period.

Clear skies Wednesday and Thursday nights will promote efficient
radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to fall into the
mid/low 30s. The NBM probabilities of temperatures ranging
from 32 to 35 degrees is elevated (above 60%) for a large
portion of the region. As the growing season is ongoing, frost
and freeze headlines will likely be needed for Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. The expanse and magnitude of frost/freeze
conditions Wednesday night will dictate need for headlines the
next night, as the growing season may end for many locations on
Thursday. Regardless, Thursday night looks to be a few degrees
colder still, with many areas north and east of Pittsburgh below
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures return Friday into the weekend
- Rain chances return late this weekend

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long-range ensemble guidance remains consistent in showing the
aforementioned ridge axis pivoting over Pennsylvania by mid-day
Friday and lingering across the Northeast through early Sunday.
This will maintain dry and warmer-than-normal conditions into
the weekend.

A passing trough and its associated cold front over the Great
Lakes will likely increase chance for rain on Sunday. Current
ensemble guidance indicates 24-hour totals generally ranging
from 0.25" to 0.50" across the region within the 25th to 75th
percentile range. However, a few ensemble members indicate the
potential for higher amounts, approaching an inch in some
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/VFR stratocumulus, rotating around the Atlantic coastal
low maintain through dawn and possibly build a bit westward
into eastern Ohio with low-level northerly moisture advection
through dawn. Expect MVFR and IFR ceilings to continue through
the night at some terminals. This will begin to lift by m id
morning. Given the persistence of clouds, significant fog is
not expected at most sites.

ZZV will largely escape the cloud cover through dawn. However,
greater radiational cooling and some signs for potential
advection fog off Lake Erie may drive lower stratus/fog into
eastern OH (10-25% probability for IFR or lower visibility at
ZZV). Confidence is not very high for the fog so will leave it
out of the TAF for now.

Slow improvement will occur after sunrise and through the coming
day, with most sites expected to achieve VFR by midday.
Afternoon mixing will provide some 15 to 20 knot northerly gusts
during the afternoon. Clear skies will return for the end of
the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will promote VFR conditions through Tuesday night
before a dry cold front crosses Wednesday that may create
periods of MVFR cigs shortly after its passage (30% probability
of MVFR at western PA and northern WV terminals).

High pressure is expected to dominate the region and maintain
VFR Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...CL/Shallenberger