991
FXUS61 KPBZ 301218
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
818 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and dry Saturday will be followed by more seasonable
temperatures for Sunday and Labor Day. The next rain chances
arrive Wednesday and Thursday with the approach of the next cold
front. Cooler and drier conditions favored once again late-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Fog burns off early, cool and dry weather prevails.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Patchy valley fog is expected to burn off after sunrise with
mostly clear skies and patchy high clouds allowing for daytime
mixing. Cold low-levels persist for the day with 850mb to 700mb
standardized temperature anomalies one to two standard
deviations below normal. This will allow for the continuation of
below average temperature for the day today, with shallow lake-
enhanced moisture allowing for a scattered fair weather daytime
cumulus deck, most prevalent in the afternoon. Winds will
remain light and mostly out of the north. All in all, a pleasant
day with no hazards expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Valley fog forecast each morning, with a slight warming trend
  in temperatures with dry conditions for most.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Another night of mostly clear skies will lend to efficient
radiative cooling Saturday night as area lows dip into mostly
the 40s. Because of thermal contrast between area rivers and
the air, vally fog will be likely yet again, locally dense at
times but confined in spatial area. Typical sheltered valley and
higher elevations in the I-80 corridor and eastern Tucker may
see some locally cooler spots. High clouds may increase late.

A shortwave trough axis is expected to pass Sunday on the
backside of a departing height min over the Canadian Maritimes.
WInds aloft will reorient more northerly in its wake, though
piratical impacts will be minimal. Height rises in its wake may
result in surface temperatures a bit closer to normal, with a
fair weather cumulus deck. Slightly cooler low levels and warmer
surface temperature may result in a slightly higher, but still
low chance of rain in eastern Tucker County WV.

ANother mostly clear forecast is expected Sunday night with
Valley fog possible, through temperatures may be a few ticks
warmer than the preceding nights with an increase, but still
low amount, of low-level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry, quiet, and seasonable Labor Day.
- The next rain chances appear Wednesday and Thursday, with a
  cold frontal passage likely on Thursday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A broad pattern of upper troughing will persist for much of
next week, with a general pattern of surface high pressure and
dry mid-to-upper levels. This should keep the area mostly dry,
with temperatures only getting up to around seasonal normals
Monday and Tuesday, with lows a few ticks below normal in
radiative cooling and daily chances of morning vally fog under
mostly clear skies.

Rain chances finally increase again Wednesday and Thursday with
the approach of the next front. A bit of temperatures and
precipitation uncertainty exists on Wednesday and pre-frontal
southwest flow may advect moisture in along a weak Appalachian
trough. In the event the area does see deeper saturation,
temperatures may be a bit below normal during the day, while in
the event moisture struggles to get into the area, more
seasonable and drier conditions are more likely. More moisture,
of course, would mean a cloudier solution as well.

The cold front itself and affiliated rain (and perhaps thunder)
are fairly confident to pass sometime Thursday and the exact
timing may affect daytime highs. An earlier passage would mean
cooler conditions, while a later passage would mean warmer
temperatures. NBM 25th-75th percentiles sit anywhere between the
upper 60s and upper 70s. A well mixed pre/post frontal
environment with 40kts to 50kts of sfc to 500mb shear also
indicates Thursday might be a gustier day, with winds up to
20mph to 30mph.

Another seasonably cool and mostly dry weekend appears most
likely for the first full weekend in September under residual
upper troughing. CPC outlooks agree, slightly favoring cool
temperatures in the 9-10 and 8-14 day period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BKN/SCT ceilings are expected to dissipate this morning. Lingering
cold advection and moisture is likely to result in a few to
scattered 3-6kft cumulus today. Wind will remain light and northerly
through the period.

Tonight, any clearing could lead to some river valley fog tomorrow
morning with the light winds overnight.

.OUTLOOK...
Save daily morning fog chances, VFR is confidently forecast
through the Labor Day weekend with prevailing high pressure.
Slight chance for CIG restrictions returning Tuesday with the
return of upper-level troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...Hefferan/Lupo