292
FXUS61 KPBZ 240003
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
703 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather into Monday evening. Rain
chances and mild temperatures arrive Tuesday ahead of Great
Lakes low pressure. A cold frontal passage occurs by Wednesday
night, bringing well-below normal temperatures and gusty wind.
Snow shower chances increase Thanksgiving and Friday, mainly
north of Pittsburgh.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry, mostly clear night
---------------------------------------------------------------

Wind gusts have diminished below advisory thresholds in Tucker
County, so the Advisory was allowed to expire. Gusty winds will
continue to relax overnight.

Tonight, a passing cirrus deck will depart, leaving mostly clear
skies before additional cloud cover overspreads the area Monday
morning. Dry and clear conditions should allow low temperatures
to fall back into the upper 20s/lower 30s overnight, though
light breezy conditions at least early in the night will prevent
more efficient radiational cooling. Patchy river valley fog is
possible overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Milder Monday with increasing clouds
- Rain returns by Tuesday morning, with wetting rain areawide during
  the day
----------------------------------------------------------------

A crossing mid-level ridge axis will continue to provide dry weather
Monday. The sky will be mostly clear early, but return flow behind
departing high pressure should push mid and upper clouds into the
region through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly
seasonable, adding 2 or 3 degrees to today`s highs in spots.

The next mid-level shortwave, over the central Plains Monday
morning, is forecast to ride northeast into the Middle Ohio Valley
by Tuesday afternoon, dampening as it does so. A surface low
reflection forms in the lee of the Rockies tomorrow and should track
into the Upper Midwest by 00Z Wednesday. An approaching warm front
and right entrance region jet dynamics provide the support for lift.
Combined with an moistening air mass with precipitable water
values climbing towards one inch, this will provide increasing
rain chances after 06Z Tuesday, with widespread rain coverage
developing after sunrise. Most locations are expected to receive
a wetting rainfall, with eastern Ohio having the best chance of
exceeding a half-inch (40 to 50 percent chance). Temperatures
will rise to between 5 and 10 degrees above normal both Monday
night and Tuesday in this pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Diminishing rain chances into Wednesday
- Gusty shower potential Wednesday afternoon
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Increasing mid-level dry air entrainment should lessen rain coverage
and intensity Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Areas east of
Pittsburgh have better chances of adding an additional tenth of an
inch or so of rain as compared to locations like eastern Ohio.
Temperatures remain mild, with some locations likely not getting
below 50 degrees Tuesday night.

A surface cold front should pass across the Upper Ohio Valley
Wednesday afternoon or evening, while the surface low is in the
vicinity of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Timing remains a bit
uncertain, depending partially on the progression of the larger
500mb trough across the Great Lakes. A line of gusty showers may
accompany the front as steepening low-level lapse rates provide both
some modest instability and a path for a 30-40 knots low-level
jet to mix down.

Although frontal timing is questionable, there is high confidence in
temperatures crashing to well below-normal behind it,
particularly for Thanksgiving and Friday. With lingering
blustery conditions, wind chill values in the teens may
accompany actual temperatures in the 20s Thursday night.

Any remaining showers are forecast to change to snow by Thanksgiving
morning, with lake-effect activity likely developing and continuing
into at least Friday. At this distance, low-level wind still appears
to have more of a westerly direction than northwest, which would
suggest lower potential for impactful snow across most of the
forecast areas.  However, long-range probabilities do continue to
highlight portions of Mercer, Venango, and Forest Counties as
having a bit better potential for more persistent banded
activity, and it is here where some sort of winter headline may
eventually be needed.

Most guidance pushes the trough east of the region by Friday
evening, leading to a decrease of lake-effect activity. Details
become murkier next weekend, but rising heights and a renewed push
of moisture may lead to more widespread precipitation and moderating
temperature by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds have started to relax across the area and VFR is observed
at all terminals to start the 00Z TAf period. Light winds and
VFR conditions prevail throughout the entire period, with the
exception of some patchy fog possible around MGW and ZZV towards
sunrise. A passing deck of cirrus this evening should depart
overnight, giving way to mostly clear skies late tonight through
early morning before another upper-level cloud deck overspreads
the area during the day Monday.

Outlook...
Restrictions and rain return Tuesday with a crossing warm front
and continue into Wednesday with a cold front. Patchy cig
restrictions and scattered snow showers follow the passage of
the cold front late Wednesday through Thursday as cold
advection sets up and an upper trough passes over the area. Snow
shower activity retreats northward to areas along/north of I-80
on Friday. Westerly winds strengthen behind the cold front late
Wednesday and remain gusty through the end of the week before
relaxing late Friday into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLB/CL
NEAR TERM...Rackley/MLB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...MLB