948
FXUS61 KPBZ 030530
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1230 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes accompany this latest forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After morning sprinkles, dry and warm through early Wednesday

2) Rain returns late Wednesday into early Thursday, with an
unsettled pattern through early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Weak low level ascent in warm advection/weak 925 mb warm front
should result in a potential for isolated areas of very light
rain early this morning. This should lift north of the area
later this morning, as a ridge begins to build in across the
Upper Ohio Valley region head of a deepening trough across the
central CONUS. This ridge will maintain dry weather and warm
temperatures into early Wednesday, before shifting east. High
temperatures, both today and Wednesday, are expected to be 15 to
20 degrees above average for this time of the year.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The main upper trough is expected to deepen into a closed low
across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An initial shortwave in
southwest flow ahead of the low, along with a surface occluded
front, should bring increasing rain chances by afternoon into
the evening as this approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley
region. Some jet assisted ascent aloft should also bring some
enhancement to the coverage of the rain by Wednesday night.
The most likely QPF amounts range from 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Lower
end (10th percentile) amounts are generally 0.1 to 0.25 inches,
with high end amounts (90th percentile) ranging from 0.7 to 1.3
inches, with the highest amounts across Ohio.

The initial shortwave and surface occlusion should exit to the
east of the area Thursday morning, with decreasing rain chances.
Model ensembles then indicate a more active, amplified pattern
through early next week, with a broad upper trough across the NE
CONUS. A series of embedded shortwave troughs should then
periodically cross the area, keeping occasional rain chances in
the forecast. With decreasing 500 mb heights, temperatures
should gradually fall to more seasonably cool readings over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level moisture and warm advection should result in mainly
VFR stratocu cigs across the area tonight. More favorable low
level moisture north of PIT should bring MVFR cigs to FKL and
BVI through early Tuesday morning. Isolated light rain is also
possible, especially north of PIT, though limited coverage and
impact precludes a TAF mention at this time.

A ridge is then expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley
region later this morning, with lower clouds clearing, scattered
cirrus, and south wind around 5 kt.

Outlook...
A ridge of high pressure should maintain VFR through part of
Wednesday. An occluded front returns rain and restrictions to
the area late Wednesday into early Thursday. A series of
crossing upper troughs will maintain periodic restriction and
rain chances Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM