417
FXUS61 KPBZ 290254
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1054 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update to Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quiet weather and above-average temperatures continue. Light
rain possible north of I-80 Thursday night. Rain potential
Sunday into Monday is decreasing.

2) Better chances of a wetting rain arrive next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Largely dry weather is still forecast to linger through Saturday
as large-scale surface high pressure persists. Temperatures
today and Thursday will run some 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
A mid-level shortwave passage this afternoon is only providing
increased cloud cover.

Come Thursday night/Friday morning, a weak cold front is still
progged to drop across the region. As this event has come into
the range of the CAMs, precipitation potential north of
Pittsburgh has increased slightly as moisture from Lake Erie
becomes involved. Still, any rainfall is most likely to remain
under a tenth of an inch.

Rainfall potential later Sunday into Monday continues to
decrease, as models are now trending weaker with an Ohio Valley
disturbance tracking south of the main 500mb ridge axis. A
system that appeared to be capable of producing a soaking
rainfall a few days ago, now has a 30 percent or less chance of
producing 0.10" in our area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ensembles continue to converge on the idea of a strong closed
500mb low over the central CONUS by 12Z Tuesday. After that
point, the low ejects northeastward towards the Great Lakes, and
there is disagreement regarding the strength and timing of the
resulting shortwave. However, there is still a notable chance of
a wetting rainfall. Ensemble probabilities for an inch or more
of rain are still in the 20-30 percent range for the LREF suite,
while NBM probabilities are a bit higher. No flooding threats
are anticipated given the recent dry stretch, but such amounts
could mitigate any building fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear and calm conditions will likely prompt river valley fog
early Thursday morning, mainly between 08Z and 12Z. VFR
conditions are likely after sunrise, winds will be light from
the south.

The probability of cig restrictions and very light rain/drizzle
increases early Friday morning with a passing cold front. FKL
and DUJ are expected to be impacted first. Cigs are expected to
drop to MVFR (ranging between 2500ft to 1500ft). However, there
could be a brief period of IFR cigs before sunrise on Friday.
Sites south of BVI could hold onto VFR cigs if low-level
moisture fizzles out as the front tracks south.

Outlook...
Light rain could return late Sunday into Monday with large-
scale disturbance.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...Hefferan