018
FXUS61 KPBZ 051934
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
234 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wintry mix tonight changes to rain Thursday morning. Dry
weather returns Friday under high pressure before wet weather
returns over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and cloudy skies expected through the rest of the
  afternoon.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Dry weather and cloudy skies continue through the rest of this
afternoon. Light northeast winds and dense cloud cover are
resulting in temperatures trending several degrees below what
was originally progged in model guidance. Will need to keep an
eye on this as it could impact the extent of ice accumulation
late this evening and overnight as low pressure approaches and
rain overspreads the area from the south and west.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Wintry mix/freezing rain likely tonight, transitioning to all
  rain Thursday morning
- Ice Storm Warning for the ridges tonight through Thursday
  morning
- Winter Weather Advisory for the lowlands along and north of
  I-70 tonight through Thursday morning
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Precipitation overspreads the region from the south and west
tonight as low pressure approaches the area. Strong warm air
advection will result in a prominent warm nose developing
around 850mb. Freezing rain is expected at the onset of
precipitation in areas where surface temperatures are near or
below freezing, with rain expected elsewhere. Most ice
accumulation should be light (a glaze to a tenth of an inch) and
focused north of I-70, with higher amounts up to one to two
tenths along and north of Rt 422. The main impact will be
hazardous travel on untreated roads. Lowland areas along and
north of I-70 remain in a Winter Weather Advisory. However, it`s
worth noting that temperatures are currently trending several
degrees colder than model guidance originally expected at this
time. If this continues, freezing rain may be observed farther
south and advisory expansions may be needed.

With E-SE upslope flow across the higher terrain, temperatures
should remain at or below freezing resulting in a prolonged
period of freezing rain. Ice accumulation of around a quarter of
an inch is expected in the ridges as a result. An Ice Storm
Warning continues in these areas, where the weight of the ice
could result in downed power lines and more significant travel
impacts. In addition, rainfall amounts could be high enough to
cause elevated river and stream levels across the higher
terrain areas of WV.

A warm front pushes through the area from south to north
overnight, shifting low-level winds to southerly and ushering
warmer temperatures into the region. This will transition
precip type to all rain by Thursday morning as temps climb
above freezing. Rain then tapers from west to east Thursday
afternoon as the upper trough axis shifts east and a cold front
moves through the area. Generally dry weather is expected
Thursday night as high pressure begins to build across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather Friday, followed by more wintry weather and rain
  possible Saturday and Saturday night.
- Generally dry Sunday and Monday.
- Another low brings unsettled weather mid next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate a broad trough across the central-
eastern CONUS through the period. Friday should be dry as
surface high pressure tracks across the region. A shortwave
embedded in the broad trough should return a wintry mix
potential to the region Saturday, depending on the exact track
of an associated surface low across the Upper Ohio Valley
region. Rainfall amounts will need to be monitored especially
for areas across WV. Surface high pressure returns dry weather
again Sunday and Monday.

Another low moving across the MS/TN valley region Tuesday brings
precip chances back to the region. Given the track of this low
to the south of the local area, another round of wintry
precipitation may be in store, though confidence in timing and
amounts remain low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are in place at the start of the TAF period, with
mid and upper clouds in a warm advection pattern. Still cannot
totally rule out a few snowflakes over portions of western PA,
but with weak forcing and a dry layer to overcome, any such
precipitation is likely to be non-restrictive.

After 00Z, restrictions arrive from the south as a wintry mix of
precipitation spreads in. Ceilings will lower with time as the
column moistens, with IFR expected at most terminals by 12Z with
high confidence. Freezing rain is expected at most terminals
for at least a brief period overnight, save at MGW, with the
longest duration/best potential for ice accretion at FKL and
DUJ. A transition to all rain will occur from south to north
late Wednesday night into Thursday (last at DUJ by 15Z or so). A
rumble or two of thunder is possible overnight with modest elevated
instability, but chances are too low for TAF inclusion at this
time. The 12Z HREF starts to decrease IFR ceiling probabilities
during the late morning, but expect these restrictions to
continue through the end of the TAF period, while precipitation
coverage wanes from west to east after 12Z.

Outlook...
There is a low probability for thunder (less than 30%) along
and south of I-70 into Thursday afternoon. VFR returns Friday
under high pressure. Another round of restrictions arrives with
widespread precipitation on Saturday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ013-020-021-029-073.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ007>009-014>016-022-077.
     Ice Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for PAZ074-076-078.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for WVZ001>003.
     Ice Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for WVZ512-514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak
AVIATION...CL