Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
877 FXUS61 KPBZ 050545 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1245 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precipitation chances and timing were adjusted Friday into Saturday. Otherwise, no major changes to the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain ends this morning, then cooler with rain chances returning Friday and Saturday 2) Near average temperatures and mainly dry to start the upcoming week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough continues to drift northeastward across the Upper Midwest. A shortwave in southwest flow ahead of the low, and a surface cold front, will complete their passage across the Upper Ohio Valley region this morning. Rain associated with this system should taper off from west to east early this morning after the passage of the front. Partial clearing is then expected by this afternoon as low level ridging briefly builds across the region. Clouds will increase again tonight into Friday as a deepening upper low develops in the trough, and tracks southeast across the Great Lakes region. This low is expected to result in periodic rain across the region Friday and Saturday. The latest operational and ensemble guidance are in good agreement that the upper low should be centered across wrn PA Saturday morning. The 850 mb temperatures under the low drop to -1 to -3 deg C, which could result in some snow mixing in with the rain across the higher elevations of Tucker county WV on Saturday, though no accumulation is expected. Otherwise boundary layer temperatures should be warm enough for rain elsewhere. High temperatures should be much cooler on Saturday, with readings around 5 degrees below average. The upper low should exit the region Saturday night, with diminishing rain chances. KEY MESSAGE 2... Model ensembles indicate a broad upper trough should persist across the NE CONUS through the middle of the upcoming week, as surface high pressure builds across the area. This pattern should result in mainly dry and seasonably cool temperatures across the region from Sunday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will continue to track across the region tonight, with areas of rain. MVFR restrictions are expected with FROPA, as low level moisture increases along and behind the front. FKL and DUJ will likely also see a period of IFR cigs with greater low level moisture. Cigs should gradually increase after sunrise, reaching VFR levels by mid afternoon with mixing and dry advection. Partial clearing is also then expected as a ridge of high pressure briefly builds in. Light S-SE wind will shift to the SW after FROPA, with gusts up to 20kt later this morning into the afternoon with mixing and an increased pressure gradient behind the front. Outlook... Restriction and rain potential returns later Friday through Saturday with a crossing upper low. Cold NW flow behind the trough could maintain ceiling restrictions into Sunday, especially north of PIT, before VFR returns by Monday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...WM