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FXUS61 KPBZ 291050
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
650 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region this morning,
producing spotty showers or areas of drizzle. Conditions will
turn dry for the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier weather and below average temperature today.
- Potential for locally dense fog overnight
---------------------------------------------------------------

A cold front will continue to track south and exit over the
Laurel Highlands later this morning, eroding a stratus layer
with post-frontal patchy fog dissipating with diurnal heating.
Building high pressure will then promote dry weather with broken
to scattered clouds this afternoon.

The combination of clouds and advancing cool air aloft in the
wake of the front will result in below average temperatures
this afternoon (~10 degrees below the daily average). Residual
pressure gradients and deeper mixing favor afternoon wind gusts
ranging between 20-25mph northeast of Pittsburgh and in the
higher terrain.

Clearing skies late tonight into early Saturday will support
radiational cooling, increasing the potential for fog across
parts of the region favoring river valleys. High resolution
guidance highlights the best chance for dense fog to be north of
Pittsburgh, near I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

-Below average temperatures continue but with drier conditions
----------------------------------------------------------------

Diurnal heating/mixing will erode any morning fog and give way
to mostly sunny skies as high pressure settles over Michigan.
Temperatures will trend a bit warmer than Friday but remain
below seasonal averages under northerly flow aloft. Another
clear, seasonably cool night may allow for river valley steam
fog on an otherwise quiet overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry Labor Day weekend
- Below average temperatures expected Sunday
- Rain chances return Wednesday/Thursday
- Potential for cooler temperatures Thursday/Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The upper-level trough that brought precipitation to the region
over the last 24 hours will shift east of New England and
toward Nova Scotia on Sunday. In its wake, deep northerly flow
along the East Coast, reinforced by ridging over the Midwest,
will keep temperatures running slightly below normal, with highs
in the mid-70s. A potential inverted trough across the
Appalachian Mountains may prompt isolated showers over the
ridges of West Virginia Sunday afternoon. However, probability
of measurable precipitation is considered low (less than 30%).

Long range guidance remains consistent in showing precipitation
chances returning Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an
approaching trough and cold front. Machine learning is currently
picking up a signal for potential strong storms with this
passing trough (5-15% chance of severe storms over the East
Coast) that will need to be monitored over the next few days.

By Friday into Saturday,trends in the synoptic pattern strongly
favor a cooler setup as an upper-level trough axis settles over
the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Passage of a cold front will generally promote clearing of an
MVFR/IFR stratus deck SE of Pittsburgh through 15z, though cold
advection may allow for isolated bkn cigs to linger an hour or
two after frontal passage.

Dry northwest flow and building high pressure favor VFR for most
of the TAF period, with diurnal heating producing scattered to
briefing broken cigs between 2-5kft. Residual surface gradients
may allow for afternoon gusts between 15-20kts out of the
northwest that will ease at sunset.

Light wind and clear skies favor strong radiational cooling
overnight that will likely result in river valley steam fog
development. Hi-resolution models favor development near
FKL/DUJ/HLG (30-50% probability for visibility < 1SM), though
most terminals may see some pre-dawn visibility reduction.

.OUTLOOK...
Save daily morning fog chances, VFR is confidently forecast
through the Labor Day weekend with prevailing high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Frazier
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Frazier
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier