533
FXUS61 KPBZ 180036
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
736 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues for most of the night. A passing system
early Tuesday may produce a brief period of wintry mix or snow
before transitioning to rain in the afternoon and evening.
Milder conditions are expected toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry conditions through most of the night
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Quiet conditions are expected through most of the nighttime
hours. The sky has cleared for locations south of US-422, while
a stratocumulus deck remains to the north that will be slow to
erode. Still, along with light and variable wind at the
surface, radiational cooling will likely bring temperatures
below freezing in most locations. Clouds will begin to increase
towards morning from the southwest as warm advection aloft
commences.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Potential for hazardous travel early Tuesday with mixed
  precipitation chances
- Rain chances increase early afternoon Tuesday; heavier amounts
  expected south of I-70
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A disturbance moving across the Great Plains will continue
eastward late tonight into early Tuesday. Precipitation chances
will increase just before or shortly after sunrise across
eastern Ohio. Initial precipitation will be light, and will have
to fight through a dry layer aloft. Surface temperatures in
this area are likely to be near to a couple degrees below
freezing. Model soundings do show some warming aloft, but it is
questionable if the warm will be of sufficient intensity to
completely melt hydrometeors as they descend. This would tilt
precip type more towards sleet than freezing rain. However,
stronger warm advection aloft and/or earlier precipitation
arrival (always possible in warm advection setups) could lead to
a higher chance for freezing rain. Snow is a brief possibility
at onset as well depending on timing, warm advection, and wet-
bulbing. In any case, boundary layer warming after sunrise
should cause a transition to mainly rain by 14Z or 15Z, so there
is a 3 to 4 hour window of potential impact that unfortunately
encompasses the morning commute. For now, given the uncertainty
and the slightly higher potential for sleet as opposed to
freezing rain, will continue to hold off on a Winter Weather
Advisory for eastern Ohio. Cannot rule out an overnight issuance
if the potential for freezing rain increases.

The eastern slopes of the Laurels as well as northern West
Virginia will need to be watched for mixed precipitation
potential as well, although onset is more likely to wait until
around 14Z here, which may limit the impact window to an hour or
two. Also, west/southwest low-level flow will not be favorable
for replenishing low-level cold air to keep any freezing rain
going for a length of time. Thus, ice impacts and headline
potential for this area is lower.

In the vicinity of Pittsburgh and north, a period of snow is
expected during the mid to late morning. Accumulations could
range from a trace to one inch; localized higher amounts will
depend on where stronger frontogenesis develops. At the moment,
high- resolution models indicate that Columbiana, Beaver,
Allegheny, and Hancock Counties may be where higher snowfall
amounts reside. The snow will likely be `wet` and heavy in
nature, with snow-to-liquid ratios around 5:1.

By early afternoon, models indicate warm air aloft will likely
overtake the region and precipitation type will transition to
rain. The heaviest rainfall, ranging between 0.50 to 0.80
inches, is expected south of I-70. With these projected amounts,
Morgantown, WV could be close to a daily precip record
(0.75"/1984).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures into next weekend
- Rain chances rise again late week with another passing
  disturbance likely
- Possible dry conditions on Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles continue to agree on height rises during the latter half
of the week which will support moderating temperatures. Despite
ridge aloft, a weak shortwave will move along it and could support
low end rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday.

Thursday night, a majority of clustered ensembles continue to favor
a trough dropping from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes.
There continues to be large differences in both strength and
timing of this wave. A faster trough would result in less rain
compared to a slower trough. The strength of the trough (weaker
or stronger) results in similar precipitation amounts.
Regardless of how the trough pans out, the start of rain is
likely to occur Thursday evening with an advancing warm front.
Following the warm front, Friday`s daytime temperatures are
expected to be up to 5-10 degrees above normal (typically in the
upper 40s). The associated cold frontal passage looks to occur
Friday afternoon/evening triggering a northwest flow regime
which would likely keep POPs elevated through Saturday due to
the chance for lake enhanced showers.

A drier trend may return by Sunday as ensembles weakly agree on
subtle height rises. This will likely be a brief period of dry
conditions before an upper-level trough moves in Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Generally clear sky is expected early this eve at most terminals
(except FKL/DUJ, where residual lake enhancement is supporting
a 4-5kft deck). With low boundary-layer dewpoint and slackening
wind, overnight cooling will be efficient, pre-conditioning the
atmosphere for morning impacts.

Amid strengthening warm advection, saturation aloft may yield
rapid, broad onset of light precipitation Tue morning,
potentially as early as 12Z at ZZV, spreading ewd quickly thru
the morning. The onset of warm air at the surface will be
delayed as a result of wet-bulb effect, which may foster a quick
transition from initial snow to FZRA/PL to rain as the
precipitation advances.

Timing of onset will be crucial to this result, with earlier
onset making a variety of PTYPEs more probable (especially at
ZZV/HLG) and a later onset enabling the boundary layer to warm
sufficiently before precipitation starts to make FZRA/PL less
likely anywhere, and instead yield a quicker transition to
rain.

Moderate rain can be expected at all terminals south of I-80 by
mid-late afternoon, with highest rain rates forecasted south of
a line from BVI-AGC-LBE.

Snow remains the dominant PTYPE for a longer period of time at
FKL/DUJ, where cold air will be longer ensconced, but
precipitation rate also will be lower in this area, with greater
rates favoring the srn terminals.

Precipitation ought to wind down late Tue evening as wind veers
to the north with the sewd advance of an inverted sfc trough.

Outlook...

Periodic restrictions and precipitation are expected through
next weekend as the area remains within a relatively active
weather pattern.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/CL
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/CL
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/CL
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Kramar/Hefferan