118
FXUS61 KPBZ 160835
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
335 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery and cooler weather is on tap for Sunday with
northwest- flow showers. Lake-effect snow is expected north of
I-80 Sunday night into Monday. Another passing system brings a
rain/snow mix Tuesday. Temperatures rise midweek before rainfall
returns late-week.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Blustery and colder Sunday, with showers continuing north of
  Pittsburgh
- Wind gusts to 55 mph over east Tucker County WV ridges
- Likely lake effect snow band late Sunday into Monday north of
  I-80
---------------------------------------------------------------

A tight pressure gradient and steep low-level lapse rates keep
gusty winds through Monday. The highest wind gusts across the
lowlands will peak near 35 mph. Wind can gust into the low 50s
at the highest elevations of eastern Tucker County, where a Wind
Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Monday.

Scattered showers are expected to begin coming in off the lakes
in northwest flow over the coming hours. Showers are expected
to start as rain and then mix with and turnover to all snow,
especially near and north of I-80, as 850mb temperatures fall
about 10 degrees C over the course of the coming 12 hours.
Showers closer to Pittsburgh are expected to be largely rain,
with daylight temperatures in the low to mid 40s. By sunset on
Sunday, little accumulation of snow is expected with SFC temps
largely unsupportive and a lower likelihood of snowfall rates
high enough to overcome these.

That changes as we move into Sunday night. 850mb temperatures
fall to as low as -7C to -9C. This allows for an around 20
degree C difference between 850mb and the lake surface
temperatures, generating very efficient lake effect snow. Model
guidance continues to point towards the generation of a dominant
lake band with a possible Superior/Huron/Erie triple
connection. Placement of this band remains more difficult to
forecast than its occurrence which seems highly likely. At this
time it seems most likely to strike northeastern Forest County
and to a lesser degree, northeastern portions of Venango,
Clarion and Jefferson Counties. The band looks to waver some but
could supply very efficient snowfall from around sunset Sunday
evening into the midday hours of Monday. At this time between
2-5" remains likely in areas that see some residence time of
this band but isolated totals up to a foot of snow seem possible
where the band sits for the longest time.

At this time Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
Venango, Clarion and Jefferson Counties until Monday afternoon.
These counties will likely see a very sharp gradient in snow
totals from southwest to Northeast. A Winter Storm Watch has
been issued for Forest County until Monday afternoon, where snow
totals are expected to be higher with a longer snow band
residence time. South of I-80 accumulations are likely to be a
coating or less owing to warm ground temps to start and less
persistent snow shower coverage.

Low temperatures Sunday morning vary widely from mid 40s south
and west to near freezing north and east. Daytime highs will
display a similar pattern nearing 50 in the southwest and
scraping 40 degrees northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow showers to wind down Monday night
- Gusty winds to slowly abate Monday night
- Another system crosses the region Tuesday returning a
  rain/snow mix
----------------------------------------------------------------

SFC and 850mb flow looks to back by late Monday afternoon,
shutting off the most efficient lake effect showers and leading
to a general drying trend.

The pressure gradient slackens meaningfully for the first time
in the forecast period Monday night and light winds overspread
the area. This, along with largely clear skies will result in
very efficient radiative cooling and low temperatures Tuesday
morning can be in the low to mid 20s across much of the region.
Areas that have a fresh snowpack on the ground may be able to
push this even further.

Cloud cover and POPs rise again by sunrise on Tuesday as
another disturbance races through the Ohio River Valley spurred
on by a 500mb shortwave. Precipitation may begin as snow across
the region, with residual dry air in the low levels allowing for
wet-bulbing. Through the day however, WAA strengthens and a
turnover to rain is expected by early afternoon. The system
exits east as quickly as it came and POPs begin to fall again by
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures mid to late week
- Rain chances rise again late week with another passing
  disturbance likely
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long range ensembles favor height rises and ridge building
across the Ohio Valley as early as Wednesday morning. This
likely supports above-average temperatures during this period.
Despite upper ridge building, a lingering SFC trough could
support lower end rain chances (roughly 30%) through Thursday.

About 75% of long-range ensembles favor another trough dropping
down from central Canada and flattening the ridge by Friday
morning. At the SFC, there is a signal for another disturbance
emanating from the high plains to rise northeast through the
Great Lakes and drag fronts across the region Friday into
Saturday. Rain chances from this system rise as early as
Thursday night as the warm front is progged to cross the region.
POPs begin to fall off but not disappear by sunrise on Saturday
as the lingering affects of the upper trough could prolong rain
chances. By Saturday, long-range ensembles differ greatly in
the upper-level pattern and confidence in forecast outcomes
drops drastically.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR ceilings prevail behind the cold front as subsidence
and dry advection quickly shut off lingering precipitation. A
brief period of MVFR is possible early this morning for PIT and
northwards as an upstream 2-3kft deck crosses. This should lift
and begin to clear from the west by sunrise before diurnal
heating and Lake Erie influence in cold NW flow aids low
VFR/high MVFR stratocu development along the I-80 corridor.
Diurnal mixing also is expected to return higher-end gust
potential today, ranging from 25-35kts.

Cold northwesterly 850mb flow is likely to aid in the
development of one or more persistent lake effect snow bands in
the general region of FKL and DUJ by late morning. Confidence in
impact at DUJ is fairly high, but probability is lower at FKL,
where snow showers may be more isolated. Moderate to heavy
snowfall is possible with snow bands overnight, most likely at
DUJ. Periods of MVFR are possible at FKL. VFR is favored
elsewhere.

Outlook...
Lake effect snow band(s) may persist across the I-80 corridor on
Monday before diminishing Monday night. Periodic restriction
and precipitation chances are favored through next weekend as an
active weather pattern is likely to continue.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
     Monday for PAZ008-015-016.
     Winter Storm Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Monday
     afternoon for PAZ009.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Rackley/Frazier