158
FXUS66 KPDT 171800
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1000 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025


.UPDATED AVIATION.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions start out except at YKM and
PSC. YKM begins at MVFR and PSC at LIFR due to low ceilings and
visibility. Forecast is expect these two to improve going through
the later morning hours by the 11AM/12PM hour. Winds will be
generally light thanks to an area of high pressure moving ashore,
but we`ll still see some areas of PROB30 light rain in PDT/YKM
through the late morning to early afternoon hours. No expecting
any heavy rainfall or sub-VFR conditions caused by rain this
period. Guidance is suggesting conditions will be far more
favorable for widespread VFR conditions tomorrow morning but still
hints at some temporary MVFR conditions in YKM/PDT/ALW. ALW seems
to be a bit more aggressive in bringing MVFR conditions more
dominantly with low ceilings, but haven`t been too confident
about the outlook (will re-visit in the 00Z TAFs). They have
recently developed 200 foot SCT conditions which could turn into a
BKN/OVC deck heading later in the morning hours (5-15% chance).


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025/

DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday: A band of light showers
associated with a passing shortwave continues to transit eastern
portions of the Columbia Basin tonight, while patches of dense fog
with visibilities down to a quarter mile and low stratus have
developed across western portions of the Columbia Basin, including
adjacent valleys and the eastern Gorge. Meanwhile, very light
showers straddling the OR Cascade crest are currently pushing
north and nearing the OR/WA border. These showers are associated
with a trough centered offshore the western CONUS.

By mid-morning, a brief lull in precip activity will develop
across the forecast area as the main low circulation in the trough
offshore dives south, leaving behind a weaker low circulation
over Vancouver Island. Some light precip will continue across the
Cascade crest, northern Blues, and Wallowa mountains through this
morning. The low will transit the PacNW late this afternoon and
tonight, providing mainly light precip to the WA Cascades and
northern Blues, though low chances (15-35%) of light rain will be
possible into portions of the Columbia Basin north of the Horse
Heaven Hills and Rattlesnake mountain, and along the northern Blue
Mountain foothills. Snow levels will fall to pass level tonight,
resulting in a transition from rain to rain/snow mix, then to snow
by middle of the night. A shortwave trough will quickly follow-
up the low as it exits to the northeast Tuesday afternoon, though
precip will be much lighter, with mainly snow or rain/snow mix
developing across the Cascade crest and Blue mountains. Tuesday
night, precip chances will come to an end across the forecast area
as a transient ridge of high pressure moves inland, with dry
conditions continuing into the overnight hours. Clearing cloud
cover and a colder airmass filtering into the region will result
in near to below freezing low temperatures across the lower
elevations of the forecast area, with moderate confidence (60-75%)
that portions of the eastern Columbia River Gorge will see their
first freeze of the fall/winter.

Thursday through Sunday:An active weather pattern, though with
light precipitation, will continue through the latter half of this
week. Ensemble 00Z guidance is in better agreement tonight of an
upper trough approaching the PacNW, then transitioning into a
closed low that will dive south along the coast and into CA. The
closed low will clip the forecast area, resulting in light rain
and mountain snow developing across the Cascade crest as well as
across portions of central OR and the Blues. Dry conditions will
briefly develop Thursday night as the low moves further south of
the region, but light rain and high elevation snow will redevelop
along the Cascade crest and far northern Blues Friday through the
weekend as zonal flow develops aloft (confidence 45-70%).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  38  50  30 /  40  30  20   0
ALW  56  42  49  34 /  50  40  30  10
PSC  57  38  52  30 /  20  20  10   0
YKM  56  33  51  29 /  30  30   0   0
HRI  58  39  51  30 /  30  30  10   0
ELN  53  33  47  27 /  50  50  10   0
RDM  56  30  48  20 /  40  10   0   0
LGD  56  38  50  27 /  60  30  30  10
GCD  57  36  51  29 /  50  20  20  10
DLS  56  40  53  34 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for WAZ027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...82
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...95