Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
529 FXUS66 KPDT 150515 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1015 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Updated Aviation Discussion .AVIATION...06Z TAFs...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Area wild fires may produce smoke/haze vsby impacts briefly in the morning around sunrise, but confidence too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise, breezy winds 12-20kts with gusts up to 30kts will decrease to 12kts or less tonight at all sites. Winds will increase from the north at most sites (from the east at site DLS) 12-17kts with gusts up to 25kts after 18Z, becoming light late tomorrow evening. Lawhorn/82 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 108 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Hot temperatures will give way to more seasonable temperatures by tomorrow as an upper- level wave clips the forecast area to the northeast. Winds will ramp up as the axis of this system treks through this evening, before a cooler air mass settles in for tomorrow. Winds will shift more north and east as a result of this system`s passage, before temperatures gradually trend upward for the rest of the work week. As far as active headlines are concerned, the ongoing Heat Advisory will end tonight, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect as hot temperatures and dry conditions coincide with gusty winds as a result of this oncoming system. Looking at obs this afternoon, confidence is not great that we will ultimately meet criteria, as RHs are a bit more elevated today with the slightly cooler temperatures, but with winds expected to be as gusty as they are, feel like the RFW is appropriate to at the very least highlight elevated conditions. Evans/74 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Ensembles are gradually coming into better agreement on the synoptic pattern through next weekend after a long period of uncertainty. Overall trend appears to be that of a short warming pattern followed by a series of shortwaves, arriving Thursday and then Saturday, that could potentially spawn critical fire weather conditions across the forecast area. These systems are generally northwesterly in origin, which would typically signal a dampened thunderstorm threat, however the dry air mass coming in from the NW will work to crater RHs and up winds to potentially create conditions ripe for Red Flag Warnings. Confidence on the issuance of future RFWs based on ensemble synoptic patterns alone is low (30-40%), as details on exact RH and wind readings will need some assistance from higher res guidance, but should point out that the NBM is already suggesting RHs in the low 20s and teens both Thursday and Saturday, with wind gusts in the 20- 25 mph range (likely to increase the closer we get to each day). By the tail end of the period, ensemble clusters generally suggest a continued troughing pattern, which will invite cooler temps into the forecast area, helping to partially negate conditions prone to wildfire spread, should such solutions verify. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 61 88 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 63 88 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 64 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 63 89 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 63 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 61 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 48 86 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 58 81 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 54 85 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 62 94 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...82