Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
543 FXUS66 KPDT 192210 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 210 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 .KEY POINTS... 1. High mountain snow, low elevation rain this afternoon/evening 2. Cold overnight temperatures with patchy fog/freezing fog 3. Progressive weather patterns starting Friday and again next week .DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows some continued low level clouds lingering along the eastern slopes of the OR Cascades and along the eastern mountains. Otherwise, high level to clear skies across the remainder of the region. .Today through Thursday afternoon....Models show an incoming upper level elongated low that will bring precipitation back to the area this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will bring in precipitation in across the area with the models showing the highest QPF amounts to be along the OR Cascades and their adjacent eastern slopes. The timing of the system is still a bit on the difficult side to pick up on. Regardless, the OR Cascades, east slopes and central OR will see rain this evening and continuing through Thursday late morning. 50- 70% of the raw HREF ensembles show that central OR will see between 0.03-0.06 inches of rainfall and 60-80% showing the eastern mountains will see between 0.03-0.06 inches as well with higher amounts nearing 0.10 along the ridgetops. Models do show temperatures along the higher elevation will remain slightly cold and snow levels will steadily decrease to near 4000-4500 ft as the system pushes onshore. 80-100% of the HREF raw ensembles do show 0.01-0.05 inches of snow between 4000-5000 feet and 2-3 inches above 5000 feet. Nothing highlight worthy at this time however, Santiam Pass is one area models are showing 1-2 inches of snowfall occurring over the next 24 hours. Temperatures overnight will be slightly warmer than the previous night. However, 80-100% of the raw NBM ensembles as well as the HREF show the vast majority of the region to see overnight temperatures below 36 degrees. The eastern slopes of the Cascades, Kittitas/Yakima Valleys, foothills of the Blues, central/N central OR and all ridgetops will see at or below freezing temperatures tonight into Thursday morning. Another round of patchy fog/freezing fog have 30-50% probabilities of occurring in isolated areas like Basins and valleys overnight and/or in the early morning. .Friday through Sunday night...An upper level flattened ridge will make its way across the region over the weekend. This system will remain primarily dry with a for shortwaves rippling across the top only affecting the far northern portions of the Cascades. Elsewhere, conditions will remain dry with temperatures cresting into the upper 40s to low 50s over the weekend (50-70%) with upper 30s to low 40s along the eastern slopes and ridgetops. .Monday onwards...Models again show yet another upper level system with an associated surface cold front making its way into the PacNW by Monday morning. Temperatures ahead of the cold front will be much like the previous days, but models show the cold front to bring nearly a 10 degree drop in temperatures. Models are also showing this system to be bringing yet another round of precipitation with it. Clusters are a bit diverged this far out, especially with the timing of the cold front and precipitation. However, all are leaning towards bringing mountain rain and snow showers back to the Cascades Monday through Tuesday above 4000 feet with 60-80% probabilities of up to 1 inch of snow before drying out again. 90 .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Predominantly VFR conditions are forecast for TAF sites this afternoon into the early overnight hours as low-level stratus has broken at DLS/RDM/BDN. Cannot rule out temporary MVFR CIGs this afternoon and evening at RDM/BDN as lingering stratus sloshes around central Oregon, but confidence is low (30 percent). Tonight, CIGs will lower again as a weather system slides overhead. MVFR or IFR CIGs are forecast (60-80 percent confidence) at DLS/BDN/RDM with lower confidence (30-50 percent) in sub-VFR CIGs elsewhere. Overnight into Thursday morning, light precipitation will spread over the region, with the best chances at BDN/RDM. While precipitation type is expected to be predominantly rain at BDN/RDM, some light snow may mix in as well (30 percent confidence). Light rain is forecast at DLS, while at other TAF sites precipitation chances are lower (10-30 percent). Light winds (10 kts or less) are forecast through the period (80 percent confidence). 86 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 32 45 31 50 / 20 30 0 0 ALW 35 45 34 48 / 20 40 10 10 PSC 33 48 30 47 / 10 20 0 0 YKM 33 50 28 48 / 20 20 0 0 HRI 34 47 31 48 / 20 20 0 0 ELN 30 47 27 47 / 20 20 0 10 RDM 29 47 23 50 / 70 40 0 0 LGD 35 47 30 50 / 20 60 10 0 GCD 36 47 29 51 / 30 50 0 0 DLS 39 52 35 50 / 70 50 10 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...90 LONG TERM....90 AVIATION...86