543
FXUS66 KPDT 192210
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
210 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY POINTS...

1. High mountain snow, low elevation rain this afternoon/evening

2. Cold overnight temperatures with patchy fog/freezing fog

3. Progressive weather patterns starting Friday and again next week

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows some continued low level
clouds lingering along the eastern slopes of the OR Cascades and
along the eastern mountains. Otherwise, high level to clear skies
across the remainder of the region.

.Today through Thursday afternoon....Models show an incoming upper
level elongated low that will bring precipitation back to the area
this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will bring in precipitation in
across the area with the models showing the highest QPF amounts to
be along the OR Cascades and their adjacent eastern slopes. The
timing of the system is still a bit on the difficult side to pick up
on. Regardless, the OR Cascades, east slopes and central OR will see
rain this evening and continuing through Thursday late morning. 50-
70% of the raw HREF ensembles show that central OR will see between
0.03-0.06 inches of rainfall and 60-80% showing the eastern
mountains will see between 0.03-0.06 inches as well with higher
amounts nearing 0.10 along the ridgetops. Models do show
temperatures along the higher elevation will remain slightly cold
and snow levels will steadily decrease to near 4000-4500 ft as the
system pushes onshore. 80-100% of the HREF raw ensembles do show
0.01-0.05 inches of snow between 4000-5000 feet and 2-3 inches above
5000 feet. Nothing highlight worthy at this time however, Santiam
Pass is one area models are showing 1-2 inches of snowfall occurring
over the next 24 hours.

Temperatures overnight will be slightly warmer than the previous
night. However, 80-100% of the raw NBM ensembles as well as the HREF
show the vast majority of the region to see overnight temperatures
below 36 degrees. The eastern slopes of the Cascades,
Kittitas/Yakima Valleys, foothills of the Blues, central/N central
OR and all ridgetops will see at or below freezing temperatures
tonight into Thursday morning. Another round of patchy fog/freezing
fog have 30-50% probabilities of occurring in isolated areas like
Basins and valleys overnight and/or in the early morning.

.Friday through Sunday night...An upper level flattened ridge will
make its way across the region over the weekend. This system will
remain primarily dry with a for shortwaves rippling across the top
only affecting the far northern portions of the Cascades. Elsewhere,
conditions will remain dry with temperatures cresting into the upper
40s to low 50s over the weekend (50-70%) with upper 30s to low 40s
along the eastern slopes and ridgetops.

.Monday onwards...Models again show yet another upper level system
with an associated surface cold front making its way into the PacNW
by Monday morning. Temperatures ahead of the cold front will be much
like the previous days, but models show the cold front to bring
nearly a 10 degree drop in temperatures. Models are also showing
this system to be bringing yet another round of precipitation with
it. Clusters are a bit diverged this far out, especially with the
timing of the cold front and precipitation. However, all are leaning
towards bringing mountain rain and snow showers back to the Cascades
Monday through Tuesday above 4000 feet with 60-80% probabilities of
up to 1 inch of snow before drying out again. 90

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Predominantly VFR conditions are forecast for
TAF sites this afternoon into the early overnight hours as low-level
stratus has broken at DLS/RDM/BDN. Cannot rule out temporary MVFR
CIGs this afternoon and evening at RDM/BDN as lingering stratus
sloshes around central Oregon, but confidence is low (30 percent).

Tonight, CIGs will lower again as a weather system slides overhead.
MVFR or IFR CIGs are forecast (60-80 percent confidence) at
DLS/BDN/RDM with lower confidence (30-50 percent) in sub-VFR CIGs
elsewhere.

Overnight into Thursday morning, light precipitation will spread
over the region, with the best chances at BDN/RDM. While
precipitation type is expected to be predominantly rain at BDN/RDM,
some light snow may mix in as well (30 percent confidence). Light
rain is forecast at DLS, while at other TAF sites precipitation
chances are lower (10-30 percent).

Light winds (10 kts or less) are forecast through the period (80
percent confidence). 86


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  32  45  31  50 /  20  30   0   0
ALW  35  45  34  48 /  20  40  10  10
PSC  33  48  30  47 /  10  20   0   0
YKM  33  50  28  48 /  20  20   0   0
HRI  34  47  31  48 /  20  20   0   0
ELN  30  47  27  47 /  20  20   0  10
RDM  29  47  23  50 /  70  40   0   0
LGD  35  47  30  50 /  20  60  10   0
GCD  36  47  29  51 /  30  50   0   0
DLS  39  52  35  50 /  70  50  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...86