Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
911 FXUS66 KPDT 020529 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1029 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025 .Updated for Aviation... .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...Isolated SHRA/TSRA has all but ended across the area, and expect dry weather and VFR conditions through the night and into Saturday. Additional afternoon SHRA/TSRA are expected in the afternoon and early evening, but these should stay mostly south and east of the TAF sites. With the exception of DLS, where gusty winds to around 25 kts are expected Saturday afternoon, winds will generally be 10 kts or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025/ AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. The last of the showers in the Columbia Basin are ending, with little to no precipitation impacts expected through the period. Winds will be light, 12kts or less, at most sites. Site DLS will see breezy winds 12-20kts with gusts up to 30kts through 4Z, becoming 12kts or less overnight, then increasing again after 17Z. Lawhorn/82 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 106 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025/ DISCUSSION...FLASH FLOOD WATCH for Portions of northeast Oregon, including the following areas, Grande Ronde Valley, Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon, Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon and Wallowa County and southeast Washington, including the following areas, Foothills of the Blue Mountains of Washington and Northwest Blue Mountains. for heavy rainfall rates of up to one inch an hour. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Landslides and debris flows are possible during this flood event over burn across in the areas. People, structures, and roads located below steep slopes, in canyons, and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from rapidly moving landslides. Current radar is showing showers moving over the foothills of the Blues, eastern mountains as well as over the Wallowas. Some of these cells have begun producing some lightning as well as produced some rain. Ground observations over the last 3 hours shows that Pendleton received 0.18 inches, portions of the foothills of the northern Blues at 0.01-0.04 inches, areas in Morrow County at 0.01-0.04 inches and areas at or near the Wallowas has seen 0.10-0.20 inches. More thunderstorms and continued rainfall is expected through the afternoon with high confidence (90-95%). Models are in decent agreement with the upper level system and the weak wave moving across the region. Southwest flow aloft has continued to bring moisture and instability into the region allowing for some convective build up. Models show this set up to remain over the area with continued southwest flow and moisture advection coupled with some instability. Ensembles show 30-40% agreement thunderstorms will return again Saturday, Sunday and Monday afternoons. Much of the thunderstorms threat remains in the southern and eastern portions of the region following the upper level flow. Thunderstorms will mainly occur in Deschutes, Crook, Grant, Union and Wallowa Counties. Models show over 70% of the ensembles having 0.3-0.5 inches of rain through tonight. This does not include the heavy rainfall rates some of the CAMs models expect due to these storms through tonight. Models are showing much of the precipitation accumulation tomorrow to be around 0.08 along the foothills of the Blues, the lower Columbia Basin and portions of central OR with accumulations as high as 0.25 inches along the higher terrains. Sunday however, models are in decent agreement that a weak atmospheric river will get caught up in the southwesterly flow bringing in a decent flux of moisture. NBM QPF amounts show up to nearly 0.50 inches available which could bring another round of potential flash flooding concerns. A weak cold front will accompany the next system Sunday night bringing a drop in temperatures beginning Monday. Thunderstorms are still expected to occur Monday, however, with the cooler temperatures, confidence is a low/moderate (30-50%). After Monday the region will see a brief drying trend with temperatures slowly hedging back into the upper 80s and low 90s by next weekend. Bennese/90 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 62 93 61 88 / 10 0 0 20 ALW 67 93 66 89 / 10 10 0 10 PSC 62 96 60 92 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 62 94 61 90 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 63 96 63 91 / 10 0 0 10 ELN 61 90 59 86 / 10 0 0 0 RDM 52 89 53 83 / 20 10 10 30 LGD 57 89 56 86 / 20 20 20 40 GCD 57 90 58 86 / 10 30 30 50 DLS 64 90 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...90 LONG TERM....90 AVIATION...77