Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
883 FXUS66 KPDT 150518 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1018 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .UPDATED AVIATION...06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. All TAF sites with the exception of DLS will remain below 10 kts with DLS continuing to range between 10-15 kts with with gusts between 20-35 kts. CIGs will be SCT-FEW 20kft through the overnight hours before burning off later in the period. Bennese/90 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1255 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...An upper-level low centered off the Gulf of Alaska will keep the PacNW locked into a SW flow pattern aloft for much of the next week, as building high pressure to our southeast keeps this pattern stagnant. This will allow breezy winds to remain relatively persistent through the Cascade Gaps and into the Basin through the next several days. Skies are mostly clear early this afternoon as mid-level flow and thus moisture transport is weak, but this will change later this evening as the aforementioned low circulates a weak shortwave through the forecast area, providing for more cloud cover over primarily the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. CAMs tap into some slight chances for orographic showers across mainly the Wallowas Sunday afternoon, but given this oncoming cloud cover and unfavorable forecast soundings as far as instability is concerned, not expecting much in the way of moisture tomorrow. Slightly better rain chances materialize for Monday as a more organized shortwave moves through the PacNW, however our forecast area looks to largely be caught up in the dry slot of this system. A few CAMs (namely the NAMNEST) tap into some moisture along the eastern mountains, and the NAM picks up on better instability, but am not feeling more confident than 20% for shower and storm chances across the eastern mountains Monday afternoon based on what CAMs are currently showing. Evans/74 LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Ensemble guidance keeps this Alaskan low in place until around late Thursday into Friday. In the days preceding, however, winds will amplify along its southern flank, thus making for windy conditions through the Cascade Gaps and into the Basin for much of the period. NBM probabilistic guidance suggests a 40-50% for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph through the Gorge and Kittitas Valley each day Tuesday through Saturday, which will make for elevated wildfire spread risks, even as cooler air filters into the forecast area all the while and allows for better RH recoveries. PoPs also start to become relatively persistent from the midweek onward for the WA Cascades as this amplified flow supports at least light shower activity at crest level. Ensembles do generally agree that this low will finally push onshore by the end of the work week, making for, again, windy conditions, but also more widespread rain chances and cool conditions, with NBM temps suggesting widespread 70s and even 60s by the start of next weekend. So while the forecast area will get little in the way of relief as far as winds are concerned, the overall cooling trend does provide some form of promise for ongoing wildfire fighting efforts. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 51 84 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 55 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 51 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 50 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 52 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 49 85 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 40 82 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 51 80 52 80 / 0 10 0 10 GCD 50 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 50 85 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...90