382
FXUS66 KPDT 142322 CCA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
422 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions expected with clear skies.
Gusty winds will prevail this afternoon out of the NW, as high as 30
kts for all sites. Winds will then decrease to less than 12 kts
overnight before gusts of 20-25 kts return Tuesday between 18Z and
21Z. Feaster/97

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 108 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025/

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Hot temperatures will
give way to more seasonable temperatures by tomorrow as an upper-
level wave clips the forecast area to the northeast. Winds will
ramp up as the axis of this system treks through this evening,
before a cooler air mass settles in for tomorrow. Winds will shift
more north and east as a result of this system`s passage, before
temperatures gradually trend upward for the rest of the work week.

As far as active headlines are concerned, the ongoing Heat Advisory
will end tonight, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect as hot
temperatures and dry conditions coincide with gusty winds as a
result of this oncoming system. Looking at obs this afternoon,
confidence is not great that we will ultimately meet criteria, as
RHs are a bit more elevated today with the slightly cooler
temperatures, but with winds expected to be as gusty as they are,
feel like the RFW is appropriate to at the very least highlight
elevated conditions. Evans/74

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Ensembles are gradually
coming into better agreement on the synoptic pattern through next
weekend after a long period of uncertainty. Overall trend appears to
be that of a short warming pattern followed by a series of
shortwaves, arriving Thursday and then Saturday, that could
potentially spawn critical fire weather conditions across the
forecast area. These systems are generally northwesterly in origin,
which would typically signal a dampened thunderstorm threat, however
the dry air mass coming in from the NW will work to crater RHs and
up winds to potentially create conditions ripe for Red Flag
Warnings.

Confidence on the issuance of future RFWs based on ensemble synoptic
patterns alone is low (30-40%), as details on exact RH and wind
readings will need some assistance from higher res guidance, but
should point out that the NBM is already suggesting RHs in the low
20s and teens both Thursday and Saturday, with wind gusts in the 20-
25 mph range (likely to increase the closer we get to each day). By
the tail end of the period, ensemble clusters generally suggest a
continued troughing pattern, which will invite cooler temps into the
forecast area, helping to partially negate conditions prone to
wildfire spread, should such solutions verify. Evans/74

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  88  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  63  88  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  64  90  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  63  89  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  63  91  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  61  89  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  48  86  48  91 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  81  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  54  85  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  62  94  64  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-507.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-026>029.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...97