539
FXUS66 KPDT 140529
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1029 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.Updated for Aviation...

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR conditions expected. Winds generally 10 kts or less
are expected overnight then wind guts in the 20 to 25 kt range are
expected to develop on Monday, with 25 to 30 kts at DLS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025/

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions throughout this TAF period with
KDLS/KRDM/KBDN having sustained winds of 12-20kts with gusts at
20-25kts this evening. Although KDLS may remain breezy, winds
will return to relatively light for KRDM/KBDN between 03Z and 09Z.
However, gusts may develop at 20-30kts tomorrow during morning
and afternoon hours for all sites. Feaster/97

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025/

.Fire Weather Watch through Monday evening for winds and RHs...

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Not a significant change in
the forecast from yesterday. High pressure will continue over the
region and will persist through mid week. With the uptick in
temperatures and the lack of overnight low temperature recoveries,
a Heat Advisory has been issued for today through Monday for the
Basin, Gorge, Yakima/Kittitas Valleys, and the foothills of the
northern Blues. HeatRisk shows a marginal risk for meeting the
advisory threshold Monday, but with highs wavering around 100
degrees and little reprieve in overnight temperatures.

Models show the surface pressure difference across the Cascades
will lead to 20-25 mph sustained winds through the Gorge and
Kittitas Valley with 50-70% of the ensembles in agreement and
50-70% of the ensembles in agreement the Kittitas Valley could see
gusts as high as 40 mph while the Gorge will see 50-70%
probabilities of 25-30 mph gusts.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Pattern shift is eminent
however, models have continued to show quite a bit of disagreement
with the incoming next system. Mainly beginning Wednesday and
after. Models are showing either a shortwave trough sweeping
across the northern portion of the region or benign westerly flow
with the trough staying a bit farther north. The primary tell will
be dependent on the depth of the track the trough takes. As of
now it shows we will remian dry and the track of the system will
be a bit to the northeast. However, confidence in the forecast
after Wednesday is low.

If the trough digs farther south, models and ensembles are in
agreement that this will bring with it a change in prevailing
wind direction with prevailing winds shifting to the north then to
the east which will become a major concern for boots on the
ground at wildfire incidents. This track will also allow for the
insurgence of moisture from the south that will lead to the
likelihood of thunderstorms moving across central OR and the
eastern mountains. Bennese/90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  97  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  71  97  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  68  99  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  68  96  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68  98  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  68  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  56  95  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  63  94  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60  96  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  71  89  62  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-507.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for WAZ024-026>029.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for WAZ690-691.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...77