331
FXUS66 KPDT 011755
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1055 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through
the period, with periodic MVFR or lower conditions possible with
rain impacts this morning and afternoon. A cold front moving
through the region will continue to bring rain impacts across
sites through early this evening. Sites YKM/DLS/PSC will see
periodic light rain through 21Z this afternoon, while sites
RDM/BDN will see periodic light rain 21Z-01Z. Sites PDT/ALW will
see highest chances of rainfall, with prevailing rain introduced
this forecast. Low chance (<25%) of bkn-ovc CIGs dropping to less
than 3kft with precip, however chances are 40-50% for vsby to drop
to MVFR with precip. South winds will increase to 15-20kts with
gusts up to 30kts at sites RDM/BDN, then shifting to the west
10-15kts with gusts up to 25kts behind the cold front passage this
evening. West winds will increase 15-20kts with gusts up to 30kts
at sites PDT/DLS this afternoon, with winds persisting to early
evening for DLS and through tonight for site PDT. Winds at site
YKM will increase from the west around 12kts this afternoon. Site
PSC will see winds increase from the southwest around 15kts with
gusts to around 25kts post front passage.Winds at site ALW will
mainly be from the south around 12kts. Winds will become light,
12kts or less overnight tonight at all sites. Low level wind shear
impacts at site PSC will persist into the afternoon. Lawhorn/82


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025/

DISCUSSION...Today through Monday: Based on current satellite and
radar imagery, a band of rain showers from an upper-level system are
clipping the WA Cascades and Kittitas Valley as low to mid clouds
move across the remaining forecast area. For the rest of today, a
weak shortwave trough with the associated cold front will continue
to move across the PacNW with widespread rain showers and gusty
winds. Wetting rain may exceed to 0.50 inches or higher for the
WA/OR Cascades (15-30% prob) and 0.15 to 0.25 inches for Northwest
Blues of WA/OR (40-60% prob) with the lower elevations having less
than 0.10 inches (20-40% prob). In addition to the southwesterly
flow aloft, today`s biggest concern will be the winds as they will
become breezy (15-25 mph) this late morning before gusting up to 40-
50 mph this afternoon through late evening for the Columbia Basin
extending to Central OR. Being said, wind advisories will remain in
effect for those aforementioned areas from 11AM to 11PM PDT today.
Confidence level is 50-70% with the surface pressure gradients
strengthening from the approaching front and models trending in that
direction. Tonight, that shortwave will flatten to a zonal pattern
as the system weakens. Gusty winds may persist over the crest of
WA/OR Cascades and Simcoe Highlands up to 35-45 mph with the
remaining areas receiving gusts at 20-30 mph (>50% confidence).

Dry conditions will return tomorrow as we come across weak ridging
before another system arrives Monday. Winds will be mainly light
with occasional breezes during morning and afternoon hours for both
days, thanks to the westerly flow. Monday, we will see widespread
rain showers as that system approaches the PacNW. NBM CONUS seem to
favor a 30-40% probability for wetting rain up to 0.15 inches over
the crest of the Cascades with lighter rain amounts for the lower
elevations. However, the models struggle to be aligned with timing
and impact as the ECMWF show the system arriving sooner than the
other models. The other models even show more dry conditions than
the ECMWF as well. While rain showers could develop, this can be
challenging to forecast on how much rain we may actually get.

Tuesday through Saturday: The long term period will be busy with
multiple cold fronts passing through. This will also bring more
widespread rain showers across the area as well as mountain snow up
to 1 feet for the Upper and Lower Slopes of WA Cascades (<20%
chance). Wednesday and Thursday will be our gusty days up to 20-30
mph from the increased southwesterly winds aloft. These gusts
will be over the eastern mountains and Central OR Wednesday and
then the Foothills Blues of OR extending to Central OR for
Thursday during morning into evening hours for both days. Friday
onward, winds will gradually become light again with continued
rain showers. Feaster/97



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  70  37  56  34 /  50  60   0   0
ALW  67  42  55  38 /  70  70   0   0
PSC  65  36  59  34 /  40  20   0   0
YKM  65  33  56  35 /  80  10   0   0
HRI  66  39  57  35 /  40  30   0   0
ELN  56  31  52  30 /  90  30   0   0
RDM  68  29  54  28 /  50  40   0   0
LGD  65  36  52  31 /  40  90   0   0
GCD  72  37  54  33 /  20  70   0   0
DLS  63  42  59  41 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ044-507-508-
     510-511.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ028-029-521.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...82