706
FXUS66 KPDT 141717
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1017 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion

.AVIATION...18z TAFs...VFR conditions expected. Winds will become
gusty this afternoon out of the W and NW, gusting to as high as 30
kts, especially for DLS and PDT, before dropping down to less than
15 kts overnight. Skies will remain clear through the period.
Evans/74

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Not a significant change in
the forecast from yesterday. High pressure will continue over the
region and will persist through mid week. With the uptick in
temperatures and the lack of overnight low temperature recoveries,
a Heat Advisory has been issued for today through Monday for the
Basin, Gorge, Yakima/Kittitas Valleys, and the foothills of the
northern Blues. HeatRisk shows a marginal risk for meeting the
advisory threshold Monday, but with highs wavering around 100
degrees and little reprieve in overnight temperatures.

Models show the surface pressure difference across the Cascades
will lead to 20-25 mph sustained winds through the Gorge and
Kittitas Valley with 50-70% of the ensembles in agreement and
50-70% of the ensembles in agreement the Kittitas Valley could see
gusts as high as 40 mph while the Gorge will see 50-70%
probabilities of 25-30 mph gusts.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Pattern shift is eminent
however, models have continued to show quite a bit of disagreement
with the incoming next system. Mainly beginning Wednesday and
after. Models are showing either a shortwave trough sweeping
across the northern portion of the region or benign westerly flow
with the trough staying a bit farther north. The primary tell will
be dependent on the depth of the track the trough takes. As of
now it shows we will remian dry and the track of the system will
be a bit to the northeast. However, confidence in the forecast
after Wednesday is low.

If the trough digs farther south, models and ensembles are in
agreement that this will bring with it a change in prevailing
wind direction with prevailing winds shifting to the north then to
the east which will become a major concern for boots on the
ground at wildfire incidents. This track will also allow for the
insurgence of moisture from the south that will lead to the
likelihood of thunderstorms moving across central OR and the
eastern mountains. Bennese/90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  97  60  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  97  63  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 100  63  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  97  63  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  99  61  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  90  60  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  94  47  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  95  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  96  54  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  91  61  92  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-507.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-026>029.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...74