485
FXUS61 KPHI 301744
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
144 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated messages 1, 3, aviation and marine sections, but no big
changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Weak high pressure dominates with a warming trend through
most of Friday.

2. Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back bays of New
Jersey and Delaware.

3. Unsettled conditions late this week and late this weekend as
a cold front passes through the region Friday night, followed
by low pressure on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak high pressure dominates with a warming
trend through most of Friday.

Weak high pressure slowly sliding eastward off the coast will
dominate through Thursday. This will provide a warming trend
with southwesterly flow and no significant weather, though
passing disturbances on the north side of the high will keep
some clouds around at times, so not close to a wall-to-wall
clear sky at any time. Thickest clouds likely overnight tonight,
decreasing in coverage as the day wears on Thursday. The
southwest flow and clouds will moderate temps, with low 60s
common tonight and near 80 for much of the area on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back
bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

Tidal levels continue to decline and recede as offshore flow
continues to allow the back bays to drain. While some of the
back bays of Barnegat Bay, Rehoboth Bay, Jefferson Creek and
Little Assawoman Bay may see some spotty minor tidal flooding
continue through Wednesday, the bulk of the threat has now
ended. As a result, no coastal flooding headlines are currently
in effect.

Outside of these areas, a few locales may touch spotty minor
with tonight`s high tide cycle, otherwise, no further tidal
flooding is expected elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled conditions late this week and late
this weekend as a cold front passes through the region Friday
night, followed by low pressure on Sunday.

A weak cold front will pass through the region late Friday and
Friday night and will settle over the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.
Weak low pressure then develops on that stalled boundary on
Sunday and passes through the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Sunday
through Sunday night.

Scattered showers will develop Friday afternoon, mainly north
and west of the I-95 corridor, then scattered showers spread
east Friday night. Showers taper off Saturday morning over
Delmarva as the front slides south of Delmarva and becomes
nearly stationary over the Mid- Atlantic. Overall, QPF will be
less than 1/10 inch, though up to 2/10 inch possible in Delmarva
where showers will linger a bit longer.

High pressure then builds into the region Saturday. Mostly
sunny skies for most of the area and partly to mostly cloudy
skies across Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey with
seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to around
70.

Low pressure then develops on that boundary and passes through
the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Sunday and Sunday night. Models
are bouncing a bit back and forth with how far north that will
track and how far north the precipitation will spread. Previous
models kept the low south of the area with minimal
precipitation, and the 12Z suite of models are bringing low back
farther north. Best chances for rain will be over Delmarva and
southern New Jersey.

High pressure then builds into the region for the start of the
new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Thursday...VFR. Winds generally SW 5-10 kts, possibly
going light/variable for a time overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.

Friday through Friday night...MVFR or lower in scattered SHRA.

Saturday...VFR.

Sunday through Sunday night...Sub-VFR in SHRA, mainly along,
south, and east of the I-95 corridor terminals,

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Thursday. Overall,
a southwest flow 5-10 kts today, increasing to 10-15 kts
Thursday. Seas around 2 today increasing to around 3 feet
Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Sub-SCA conditions.

Saturday through Sunday...A brief period of SCA conditions
possible Saturday morning, otherwise, sub-SCA.

Monday...SCA conditions possible late.

Rip Currents...

For today...Northwest winds in the morning around 5 to 10 mph
will become south in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of 1
to 2 feet are expected with a lingering 1 to 2 foot easterly
swell around 8 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to
maintain a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for both the
Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Thursday...South-southwest winds increase to around 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave
heights of 1 to 3 feet are expected with a 2 foot easterly swell
around 9 seconds. Given the increasing parallel flow along the
New Jersey Coast and slightly longer period swell, have opted
to go with a MODERATE risk for rip currents for New Jersey
beaches; with a LOW risk for rip currents for the Delaware
beaches.

The surf season will conclude for the year today. No further
rip current forecasts will be issued beyond today until 2027.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJL/RCM
AVIATION...MJL/RCM
MARINE...MJL/RCM