385
FXUS61 KPHI 282315
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
715 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Rip Current Section for Tuesday and Wednesday and the
aviation discussion for the 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. The nor`easter slowly departs the region through tonight.

2. Coastal flooding threat lowered in many areas but still a concern
along the back bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

3. Unsettled weather possible Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The nor`easter slowly departs the region through
tonight.

The nor`easter is now centered south of Long Island, with high
pressure centered to the north. The low will continue to weaken
as it tracks slowly northeastward.

Winds have now weakened substantially compared to the past few
days, now only around 10 mph or so during the rest of the day
out of the N to NW. Still some spotty sprinkles out there, but
coverage continues to mostly dwindle. Cloud coverage will
linger through tonight into Tuesday, though gradually waning
through the period, with a few breaks possible this afternoon
and much better chance of some sun on Tuesday. That said, not
expecting a wall-to-wall sunny day just yet.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Coastal flooding threat lowered in many areas but
still a concern along the back bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

Overall, tidal flooding concerns continue to diminish as winds have
shifted offshore. Additional flooding at high tides is expected to
be spotty minor for most locations.

With that being said, the Coastal Flood Advisory for Cape May,
Atlantic, Monmouth, and Middlesex counties in NJ have been allowed
to expire and additional coastal flooding headlines are not
anticipated here.

Moderate flooding of back bays continues to affect Ocean County NJ
and Sussex County DE. Given the offshore flow, water levels should
be receding from here. However, minor flooding is expected to
persist through tonight and into Tuesday. A Coastal Flood Advisory
is in effect until 2 PM Tuesday for these locations.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather possible Friday through
Sunday.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area late Friday into
Friday night. As it moves into the area, there will be a chance of
showers. However, as the vorticity impulse aloft weakens, the
showers may dissipate for many areas as the move eastward. However,
additional rain fall is expected to move back into the area Saturday
night into Sunday. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop
along the front as it stalls to our south Saturday, then move
northward across the area through Sunday. Showers will increase
Saturday night into Sunday as a couple of short wave/vorticity
impulses move into the area, along with the surface low
pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Borderline VFR/MVFR stratus will linger into the early
overnight hours as probabilities for <3kft cigs hover around or
above 50% for all but ILG and ACY. Based on latest trends, have
erred a bit more optimistic with cigs on the VFR side (save TTN
and MIV which have been more solidly within the lower cloud
deck), though do think some sporadic dips to MVFR will continue,
so have included TEMPOs through about 04z. Beyond that, VFR
should eventually win out for all in the latter half of the
overnight hours. Light and variable wind. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with NW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night-Friday...VFR conditions expected.

Friday night-Saturday...Occasional MVFR conditions with a chance of
showers.

Saturday night...MVFR conditions increase, possible IFR, with
increasing rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Remaining Small Craft Advisories were allowed to expire for this
afternoon.

Seas 2-4 feet with winds north to northwest gusting up to 20
kts through Tuesday, though slightly lighter on Tuesday than
this afternoon. May still be some vsby restrictions this evening
but improvements likely by Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Conditions expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday...Northwest winds in the morning around 10 mph will
become west-southwest in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of
1 to 3 feet are expected with a lingering 2 foot easterly swell
around 7 to 9 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to
maintain a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Wednesday...Northwest winds in the morning around 5 to 10
mph will become south in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of
1 to 2 feet are expected with a lingering 2 foot easterly swell
around 8 to 10 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to go
with a LOW risk for rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and
Delaware Beaches.

The surf season will conclude for the year on September 30th. No
further rip current forecasts will be issued beyond September
30th until 2027.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ020-026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/MJL/RCM/Robertson
AVIATION...RCM/Robertson/MLB
MARINE...DeSilva/RCM/Robertson