947
FXUS61 KPHI 061705
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
105 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday. A cold front moves
through the area Wednesday followed by a return of high pressure to
end the week. A deepening low pressure system could affect the area
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
We are mostly sunny today with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s
with dew points creeping up into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds
will be light, around 5-10 mph out of the SSW.

Our high pressure system slides offshore Monday night with light
south to southwest return flow remaining. This will keep
temperatures on the more mild side with lows in the mid 50s to low
60s. Another night of some patchy fog development is possible, but
incoming cloud cover and winds not completely calm should limit the
fog development a bit compared to some of the previous nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cloud cover increases west to east through Tuesday ahead of a cold
front that is expected to bring rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warm-air advection strengthens as the front approaches, allowing
high temperatures Tuesday to get into the upper 70s/low 80s despite
the increasing clouds. Guidance continues to have the bulk of the
precipitation coming in later, so nearly everyone should have a dry
Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will feature a cold front approaching
and moving through, bringing some much needed rain to the area. Most
of the rain will fall overnight Tuesday night into the Wednesday
morning hours, with just some lingering showers near the coast in
the afternoon. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder as model
soundings show some elevated instability, but the severe and flash
flooding threat remains very low. Current forecast still has a
widespread rainfall nearing an inch for the majority of the entire
area. Some areas likely will fall short, while some over-perform. As
this event gets closer, those details will become more ironed out.
Temperatures on Wednesday hover around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian high pressure moves in on Wednesday night, remaining in
control through the end of the week. Cold-air advection sets up in
the wake of the departing front, resulting in seasonably cool
temperatures both Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the
low to mid 60s. Overnight lows Wednesday night should generally
range from the upper 30 to the upper 40s with even some mid 30s
likely by Thursday night in the colder spots such as the Lehigh
Valley into the southern Poconos and NW NJ. This will be the result
of mainly clear skies and light winds. Would not be surprised to see
the first Frost headlines of the season for northern New Jersey and
southern Poconos by the end of the week.

The weekend forecast is more uncertain. Forecast guidance develops a
low to our south over the Atlantic but since this is almost a week
out, there`s uncertainty regarding the track it takes. If high
pressure centered to our north remains dominant, this could
suppress the system south and east keeping the area dry.
Otherwise the potential exists for a deepening low to track
northward bringing the area a soaking rainfall by later next
Saturday night into Sunday. Stuck with the NBM which has a 20 to
30 percent chance of rainfall Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Today (through 00z)...VFR with FEW/SCT cumulus between
FL035-050. South/southwest winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...Primarily VFR. Small chance (10-15%) of fog developing
at all terminals between 09z-13z with a 10% chance of fog being
dense (VSBY < 1SM). Since probability is low, kept out of the
TAFs for now. Winds generally out of the south/southwest 5 kt or
less though some sites likely see periods of calm or variable
winds. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Southwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.


Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected
with periods of rain and low clouds coming through.

Wednesday night through Friday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through Monday night. S to SW winds
around 5-15 kts withs seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Wind gusts on the ocean could get near
25 kt at times, potentially resulting in SCA conditions.

Wednesday night through Thursday...SCA conditions expected with a
low chance of gales (15-20%). Northerly wind gusts nearing 30 kt
with seas 5 to 7 feet.

Thursday night...SCA conditions diminishing as winds and seas
decline but some lingering 5 foot seas cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Guzzo/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/Hoeflich
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/Hoeflich