057
FXUS61 KPHI 151011
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
611 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the 7-day forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mainly quiet this week with high pressure in control.

2. Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible at times late
this week and next weekend as multiple systems move through.
However at this point significant impacts due not appear likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly quiet this week with high pressure in
control.

An expansive area of high pressure will remain in control
through Thursday resulting in a stretch of nice mid-September
days.

A sunny day is on tap for today with light east winds as the
high slightly shifts to the east. Expect highs mainly in the
middle to upper 70s with 60s to low 70s over the Poconos into NW
NJ. Humidity levels will remain comfortable.

By Wednesday, temperatures climb into the above normal range
with highs in the low to mid 80s. This stretch of above normal
temperatures should continue until Friday with increasing levels
of humidity through the period.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible at times
late this week and next weekend as multiple systems move through.
However at this point significant impacts due not appear likely.

A cold front still looks to move southward through the area Thursday
night into Friday and this could result in a few showers. However,
guidance has backed off on coverage of showers and now the end of
the week looks to overall remain mainly dry for most.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the aformentioned front may try
to push back northward as a warm front by late Saturday followed
by another cold front Sunday Night as low pressure moves by
north of the area. This will bring additional chances for
showers and perhaps a few storms with the highest probability
for precipitation looking to be late Sunday into Monday.

Medium range guidance shows the unsettled period continuing
into early next week with multiple waves of low pressure moving
through. Still over 5 days out, so things could change with the
forecast and it is a bit early to get into specific impacts.
However, there is no real overwhelming signal in both
deterministic and ensembles of any major impacts at this time
with these systems.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Winds gradually veering through the morning,
starting out of the north/northeast and eventually becoming
southeasterly for the afternoon around 5 to 8 kt. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Light south/southeasterly winds 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15-20%) of showers
though widespread restrictions look unlikely.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through tonight. Northeasterly winds
around 10-20 kt this morning will decrease to under 10 kt for
the afternoon and overnight hours. Winds also turn more
east/southeasterly for the afternoon and evening hours. Seas 2
to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

Today...While winds will be onshore today, they will be light
and only 5 to 10 MPH. Breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet expected
with a 6 to 9 second period. With light winds and low breaking
wave heights with a medium period swell, elected for a LOW risk
of rip currents at all beaches.

Wednesday...Tranquil conditions continue with 1 to 2 foot waves
and a light south/southeasterly wind around 5 to 10 MPH. A 6 to
8 second period is expected. These conditions will result in
another LOW risk for the development of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich
MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich