705
FXUS61 KPHI 122002 CCA
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
402 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will affect the region through Monday bringing
significant impacts to parts of our area. Improving conditions
expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens and moves out to sea.
High pressure will begin building back into the region during
the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A significant coastal storm is impacting the region this afternoon.
The forecast remains on track overall. Most severe impacts remain
near and along the coast as wind gusts over 50 MPH have been
observed for the past several hours. As a brisk low-level jet moves
overhead later this afternoon and evening at the coast, winds could
become even stronger, with gusts near 60 MPH at the Jersey Shore and
Delaware beaches. No changes were made to the wind headlines, with a
High Wind Warning still in place for the immediate coastlines of New
Jersey and Delaware as well as all of Cape May County through 5 AM
tomorrow. Wind Advisory remains in place for Monmouth, Ocean, and
Atlantic County in NJ outside of the coastal strip through the same
time, with the same being true for mainland Sussex County, DE.

In terms of rainfall, the forecast continues to trend downward as a
more strung out, double barrel low has developed. Main concern with
this system is the tidal flooding and wind, with the remaining a
limited tertiary threat. So far, about an inch of rain has fallen
along the coast. When we`re all said and done, the coast will end up
with about 1.5 to 3 inches, with around a half inch to 1.5 inches
elsewhere. This will fall all over a 36-48 hour period though, with
this looking like a more beneficial rain rather than a significant
freshwater flood event.

In terms of how the timing looks, there will be a push of more
moderate rain overspreading the region this evening into the
overnight hours. That will continue through the morning hours, with
more light and scattered wrap-around showers expected during the
daytime hours tomorrow on the backside of the low as it pulls away.
We finally start to dry out later tomorrow night and transition to a
quieter mid-week period.

Winds will be strongest over the next 12 hours or so before dying
down just before daybreak. Tomorrow still will be breezy though but
nothing like today. Gusts inland could get near 30 MPH at times,
with 40 MPH gusts at the immediate coast.

It will be damp and dreary to start the week, with temperatures
tomorrow in the upper 50s/low 60s. There won`t be much of a drop
overnight with temperatures, as lows will be in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions will improve across the area Tuesday morning as the slow
moving coastal system moves away from our area. Lingering clouds and
a few showers across NJ/DE early will decrease by afternoon.
Increasing amounts of sunshine expected for the afternoon. Dry
weather will be across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure begins to build in. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of normal Tue/Wed with mostly mid/upper 60s most spots and
lows favoring the low/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much happening for the long term. Like last week, a large area
of high pressure builds in during the midweek period and slowly
moves away during the weekend. Models are showing a system following
for late next weekend, but since it`s at the edge of our forecast
time range we`ll just mention the slight chance or chance pops for
Sunday attm. Temperatures will be like last week too. Readings will
be below normal Wed night/Thu  then rise to above normal for next
weekend. Normal highs for the Delaware Valley this time of year are
in the mid 60s with lows in the upper 40s. Further north, highs are
normal close to 60 with lows in the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru evening...Lowering conditions most sites with MVFR to arrive
N/W and approaching IFR S/E. Rains mostly KMIV/KACY with some
perhaps reaching the Delaware Valley sites towards sunset. NE
winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts 30 to 35 kts. Moderate confid
overall.

Tonight...A continuation of lowering CIGS then VSBYS most areas
with IFR N/W late and LIFR for S/E sites. Rains eventually
arriving most sites overnight. Northeast winds around 15 kts with
gusts to 25 kts expected. Low confid.

Monday...Low CIGS/VSBYS expected with the coastal low still
offshore and NE winds continuing. Not a great deal of confidence
for the period however with any significant improvement not
expected. Mostly IFR conditions expected with LIFR for KACY/KMIV.

Outlook...

Monday night...Lower conditions continuing. Improvement N/W
towards morning.

Tuesday...Lower clouds across coastal areas early then VFR
returning. VFR N/W and Delaware Valley areas thru the day.

Tue night thru Friday...VFR expected. Patchy morning fog
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A Storm Warning is in effect for all Atlantic coastal waters and
lower Delaware Bay through Monday. Wind gusts of 50 kt or higher are
expected especially this afternoon and during the overnight hours.
Seas of 11 to 16 feet are expected. Winds are a bit less on the
Upper Delaware Bay, around 30-40 kt out of the northeast.

Once the Storm Warning expires, a Gale Warning likely will be needed
as 34+ kt wind gusts could continue through Monday Night. Seas
Monday Night of 8 to 12 feet expected.

Outlook...

SCA/low-end Gales continue Tue into Wednesday many areas then lowering
winds and seas into the late week period and continuing Sat.
Showers Tuesday then Fair for Wed thru Sat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Moderate to major coastal flooding impacts have begun and will
continue through Monday as a coastal storm impacts the region.
Guidance still varies in potential outcomes of this storm with
regard to severity of coastal flood impacts locally, however we
remain very concerned about the potential for significant impacts
from this storm along our coasts. At this time, the greatest threat
of impacts are anticipated to occur along the Atlantic coasts of New
Jersey and Delaware, and Delaware Bay. While the forecast may change
and waffle between Moderate or Major, the actual flood stage and
tide level will not change much. Regardless of what level the tides
hit, an impactful event is expected and residents should listen to
officials and emergency managers throughout this event. A Coastal
Flood Warning remains in effect for through Monday evening.

Widespread minor tidal flooding is expected on the tidal Delaware
River with tonight and tomorrow night`s high tide, where a Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect.

Severe beach erosion and dune breaching are quite possible along the
entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due to the very
high surf conditions that are expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT Monday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ013-020-022-027.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ014-023>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT Monday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for DEZ002>004.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ003.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430.
     Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...OHara
MARINE...Hoeflich/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich