495
FXUS61 KPHI 031753
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1253 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually builds in from the southwest Wednesday. A
strong cold front crosses our area Thursday, followed by high
pressure later Thursday night into Friday. An area of low pressure
is currently forecast to track just to our south and east later
Friday into Saturday, followed by a cold front later Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An expansive area of high pressure is over the Eastern US, which
will result in tranquil conditions through tonight. Skies will
be mostly clear outside of some thin passing high clouds and
perhaps some stratus over the higher elevations in the Poconos.
Temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s, with the warmer urban
heat island of Philly hovering around 30.

For tomorrow, a cold front will pass through the region,
ushering in an arctic airmass. While the frontal passage will
mainly be dry for most, there may be just enough moisture, lift,
and instability to result in a few snow showers along and north
of I-80 during the day. While this should generally be not
impactful, the snow squall parameter is not zero, so a few
squalls reaching the far northern part of our area cannot be
ruled out. Otherwise for most, the main impact will be
increasing winds as the front passes and in its wake as strong
cold-air advection ramps up. Winds increase with gusts around
25-35 MPH expected out of the northwest. Temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 30s and low 40s tomorrow, but it certainly feel
cooler than that with a brisk northwesterly wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is slated to push through the region during the day
Thursday before cold high pressure builds in Thursday night. While
the cold front will be rather gusty and usher in a much colder
airmass, it will largely be dry, only bringing a risk of snow
showers across the Poconos and high elevations of northwestern NJ.
Cannot fully rule out the possibility these snow showers could be
more of the snow squall variety, but at the moment, snow squall
conditions look to remain better across upstate NY and along the
NY/PA border, diminishing as it reaches the Poconos. W-NW winds will
gust up to 25-35 mph in the afternoon with temperatures only warming
into the mid 30s to low 40s. Behind the front, temperatures will
take quite the tumble Thursday night with lows falling into the
teens and low-20s for much of the region with single digits across
the Poconos and high elevations of northwestern NJ. Thankfully,
winds are expected to diminish after sunset, limiting how low wind
chills will get.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For Friday and Saturday...High pressure is centered over our
area to start within an initial zonal flow aloft. A shortwave
trough however looks to quickly arrive later in the day Friday
and especially Friday night. This feature does not appear to
sharpen much as it arrives given the more zonal flow aloft ahead
of it, although this could change if additional energy can
phase with it. A cold and very dry air mass is forecast to be in
place, and this may hinder the northward placement of a
precipitation shield. Surface low pressure is forecast to
develop and track to our south as a result and tend to be a
quick mover. Given the current synoptic setup, the highest
probability of precipitation is across the southern to eastern
areas (Delmarva to southeastern New Jersey). Some snow or even a
wintry mix is possible across these areas with even some change
to rain, with snow then as the main precipitation type farther
north, including the I-95 corridor. Something to watch however
is whether a zone of frontogenesis or strengthening
frontogenesis occurs resulting in a banding feature north to
northwest of the surface low. This would tend to occur if the
mid level wave sharpens more than currently forecast, which some
ensemble members do suggest remains a possibility. The details
will be determined by the track and strength of the system which
will then determine the precipitation types and amounts. Given
the uncertainty with these (finer) details no major changes were
made to the National Blend of Model (NBM) guidance and at the
moment, the snowfall potential with this system looks to remain
on the lighter side. Rather cold Friday with high ranging from
mid to upper 20s far north to upper 30s far south. It turns
milder then Saturday in the wake of the system, however still
below average.

For Sunday through Tuesday...An upper-level trough across eastern
Canada may undergo amplification south and eastward through about
Monday before weakening occurs. Another piece of energy dropping
down into the Mid-Mississippi Valley may then sharpen the trough
eastward again Tuesday with surface low pressure potentially
approaching our area during Tuesday. Quite a bit of uncertainty with
the evolution of the features within the larger scale trough,
therefore just some slight chance PoPs (20 percent) in the forecast
as of now at times Sunday night through Tuesday. Temperatures
currently are forecast to be on the cold side, especially early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today (through 00z)...VFR. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt
become west/southwesterly around 21z and gradually diminishing. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR. West/southwest winds 5 kt or less.

Thursday...VFR. Winds increasing with a frontal passage between 14z-
16z. West/northwest winds 10-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt.
High confidence in prevailing VFR, moderate confidence in timing of
frontal passage and winds increasing.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...A period of sub-VFR conditions possible along
with some rain/snow (highest probability currently south and east of
KPHL).

Sunday...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through tonight. West winds around 10-
15 kt with seas 2 to 4 feet.

A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for all marine zones
beginning at 14z. West/northwest winds around 15-25 kt with gusts
around 30 kt expected. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Cold temperatures forecasted early Friday morning may challenge
a few records. Record lows at our climate sites for 12/05 are
listed below:

Record Low Temperatures for December 5th...
SITERECORD/YEAR
Allentown (ABE)11/1926
AC Airport (ACY)11/1966
AC Marina (55N)15/1901
Philadelphia (PHL) 13/1886
Wilmington (ILG) 12/1926
Reading (RDG) 12/1926
Trenton (TTN) 10/1926
Mount Pocono (MPO) -2/1971
Georgetown (GED) 14/1966

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for
     ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to midnight EST
     Thursday night for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...Gorse/MJL
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL
CLIMATE...MJL