189
FXUS61 KPHI 011706
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
106 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation, marine, key message 1.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures and increasing chances of showers
for the end of the week.

2. Unsettled conditions are expected for the later part of the
weekend. Chances for rain on Sunday have increased.

3. Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back bays of New
Jersey and Delaware.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures and increasing
chances of showers for the end of the week.

High pressure offshore will continue to pump milder and
increasingly more humid air across the area through Friday. High
temps will be much above normal on Friday. Dry conditions
should prevail through midday Friday.

This will change Friday afternoon as a cold front will pass
across the region late Friday and Friday night and will settle
over Delmarva on Saturday. Scattered showers will develop
Friday afternoon, mainly north and west of the I-95 corridor,
then scattered showers spread east Friday night. The showers
taper off in most areas by Saturday morning, but across southern
Delaware and south NJ, we`ll keep some clouds and scattered
showers for Saturday as the front becomes nearly stationary over
the Mid- Atlantic. Overall, QPF will be less than 1/10 inch but
a few areas closer to 2/10ths of an inch possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions are expected for the later
part of the weekend. Chances for rain on Sunday have increased.

High pressure then builds into the region from the north on
Saturday. Mostly sunny skies for most of the area and partly to
mostly cloudy skies across Delmarva and extreme southern New
Jersey with seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60s
to around 70. These temperatures are near normal for early
October.

After that, low pressure develops on that stalled front and
passes cross the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Sunday and Sunday
night. The overnight models continue the previous trend of
bringing higher POPs further north for Sunday. The present fcst
now has low-end likely POPS for southern Delaware and the 50%
chance line runs along the Delaware valley and up into Monmouth
County. Low chance pops are included now for the southern
Poconos and Lehigh Valley

High pressure then builds into the region for the start of the
new work week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back
bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

Tidal levels continue to decline and recede as offshore flow
continues to allow the back bays to drain. Some of the back bays
of Barnegat Bay, Rehoboth Bay, Jefferson Creek and Little
Assawoman Bay may see some spotty minor tidal flooding continue
today, as winds turn more shore parallel and slow the rate of
drainage. However, the bulk of the threat is over. As a result,
no coastal flooding headlines are currently in effect.

No further tidal flooding is expected elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rest of today... VFR. SCT-BKN high clouds mostly. SW winds 5-10
knots. High confid.

Tonight...VFR continues. Mostly mid/high clouds. Winds SW around
5 kts or less. High confid.

Friday... VFR morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon
with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS possible. Winds SW 10-15 kts with some
gusts up to around 20 kts possible.

Outlook...
Friday night... scattered showers evening with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
possible. Winds shifting to NW following a FROPA.

Saturday... Mostly VFR but some morning MVFR and showers
possible for south NJ and Delaware.

Sunday... Widespread MVFR with IFR possible S/E with frequent
showers Delmarva and south NJ. For N/W areas more VFR CIGS with
some MVFR in scattered showers.

Monday... VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...sub-SCA, though with southwest winds increasing
to 10-15 kts and seas building to 3-4 ft. Spotty showers
possible late Friday.

Friday night... More sub-SCA with scattered showers Friday
evening. Ocean Seas 3-4 ft.

Outlook...
Generally sub-SCA thru the weekend and into next week. Two
periods where conditions may approach SCA are Saturday morning
when some gusts 20 to 25 kts are expected.Also, Monday night may
see increasing seas 4-5 ft as NW winds develop across the
waters.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AKL/RCM/WFO PHI
AVIATION...RCM/WFO PHI
MARINE...AKL/RCM/WFO PHI