761
FXUS61 KPHI 130151
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
951 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will continue to affect the region through
Monday, bringing significant impacts to the coastal areas.
Improving conditions expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens
and moves out to sea. High pressure will begin building back
into the region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 900 PM, the western portion of the rain shield in New
Jersey is slowly expanding westward. Low-level moistening
continues westward as evident by some weak radar returns
(drizzle) as well as significantly lowered cloud bases. A robust
easterly low-level jet at 850 mb continues to lift northward
across our far eastern areas and especially the marine zones.
The KDIX radar velocity data shows an area of 45-55 knots of
wind around 2500 feet AGL just offshore of Monmouth and Ocean
counties. This will enhance some lift tonight into Monday
morning, and as a result areas of rain are anticipated to expand
farther westward into Monday morning. The main impacts will
continue to be felt across our coastal communities due to
strong/damaging onshore winds and significant/severe coastal
flooding. Wind gusts along the coast have been as high as 45-59
mph so far.

Otherwise, no changes were made to the wind headlines, with a
High Wind Warning still in place for the immediate coastlines of
New Jersey and Delaware as well as all of Cape May County
through 6 AM Monday. Wind Advisory remains in place for
Monmouth, Ocean, and Atlantic County in NJ outside of the
coastal strip through the same time, with the same being true
for mainland Sussex County, DE.

In terms of rainfall, the forecast continued to trend downward
as a more strung out, double barrel low has developed. Main
concern with this system is the tidal flooding and wind, with
the remaining a limited tertiary threat. So far, 0.50-1.00
inches of rain has fallen along the coast. When we`re all said
and done, the coast will end up with about 2 inches, with around
a half inch to 1.0 inch elsewhere.

In terms of how the timing looks, areas of rain will shift
westward trough tonight and Monday. We start to dry out later
Monday night and transition to a quieter mid-week period.

Winds will be strongest over the next 12 hours or so before
dying down just before daybreak. Monday still will be breezy
though but nothing like today. Gusts inland could get near 30
MPH at times, with 40 MPH gusts at the immediate coast.

It will be damp and dreary to start the week, with temperatures
Monday in the upper 50s/low 60s. There won`t be much of a drop
overnight with temperatures, as lows will be in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions will improve across the area Tuesday morning as the
slow moving coastal system moves away from our area. Lingering
clouds and a few showers across NJ/DE early will decrease by
afternoon. Increasing amounts of sunshine expected for the
afternoon. Dry weather will be across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday as high pressure begins to build in. Temperatures
will be within a few degrees of normal Tue/Wed with mostly
mid/upper 60s most spots and lows favoring the low/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much happening for the long term. Like last week, a large
area of high pressure builds in during the midweek period and
slowly moves away during the weekend. Models are showing a
system following for late next weekend, but since it`s at the
edge of our forecast time range we`ll just mention the slight
chance or chance pops for Sunday attm. Temperatures will be like
last week too. Readings will be below normal Wed night/Thu then
rise to above normal for next weekend. Normal highs for the
Delaware Valley this time of year are in the mid 60s with lows
in the upper 40s. Further north, highs are normal close to 60
with lows in the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...MVFR ceilings to eventually IFR. Some rounds of
rain/drizzle will result in visibility restrictions at times.
Northeasterly winds 15-25 knots with gusts 25-35 knots (to 40
knots mainly at KACY). Low confidence.

Monday...MVFR/IFR ceilings. Areas of rain will result in
MVFR/IFR visibilities at times. North-northeast winds 15-20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots, which may diminish some in the
afternoon especially south and east of KPHL. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...Lower conditions continuing. Improvement N/W
towards morning.

Tuesday...Lower clouds across coastal areas early then VFR
returning. VFR N/W and Delaware Valley areas thru the day.

Tue night thru Friday...VFR expected. Patchy morning fog
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A Storm Warning is in effect for all Atlantic coastal waters
and lower Delaware Bay through Monday. Wind gusts of 50 kt or
higher are expected especially this afternoon and during the
overnight hours. Seas of 11 to 16 feet are expected. Winds are a
bit less on the Upper Delaware Bay, around 30-40 kt out of the
northeast.

Once the Storm Warning expires, a Gale Warning likely will be
needed as 34+ kt wind gusts could continue through Monday Night.
Seas Monday Night of 8 to 12 feet expected.

Outlook...

SCA/low-end Gales continue Tue into Wednesday many areas then
lowering winds and seas into the late week period and continuing
Sat. Showers Tuesday then Fair for Wed thru Sat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
9:30 PM Update: the Coastal Flood Forecasts were updated for all
gauges. No significant changes were made to the forecast for the
next two upcoming high tide cycles. Some minor changes were made
based on the latest guidance and trend in gauge observations.
The Delaware Bay (including Lewes) and Atlantic/Cape May County
gauges were lowered by a couple tenths of a foot, and the
Raritan Bay and Monmouth County gauges were increased by a
couple tenths of a foot. Our forecast for Perth Amboy is now
just 0.1 of a foot shy of Major flood stage. It`s still possible
that a gauge or two along Raritan Bay reaches Major flood stage,
but this will depend on how the surface low evolves into Monday.
A stronger, more persistent easterly wind would result in more
significant impacts than the current official forecast suggests.

Moderate to major coastal flooding impacts have already occurred
along the Atlantic coasts of NJ and DE, and will continue around
the times of high tide through Monday as a coastal storm
impacts the region. Guidance still varies in the solutions
regarding the severity of coastal flood impacts locally, as this
will ultimately be dependent on the exact track and strength of
the coastal surface low. However, we remain very concerned
about significant impacts from this storm along our coasts, and
continue to monitor the latest trends in observations and
guidance closely.

The greatest threat of impacts are still anticipated to occur
along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, and
Delaware Bay. While the forecast may change and waffle between
Moderate or Major, the actual flood stage and tide level will
not change much. Regardless of what level the tides hit, an
impactful event is expected to continue for multiple high tide
cycles. Residents should heed advice and any evacuation orders
from local officials and emergency managers throughout this
event. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect through Monday
evening.

Widespread minor tidal flooding is expected on the tidal
Delaware River with tonight and Monday night`s high tide, where
a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect.

Severe beach erosion and dune breaching are possible along the
entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due to the very
high/dangerous surf conditions through Monday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT Monday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ013-020-022-027.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ014-023>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT Monday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for DEZ002>004.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ003.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430.
     Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...Gorse/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Gorse/OHara
MARINE...Hoeflich
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich/Staarmann