405
FXUS61 KPHI 150611
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
111 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure near Hudson Bay builds down into the region today,
then departs by tonight as a warm front associated with a clipper
system moving into the Great Lakes lifts into the region. This
clipper system passes north of the region on Sunday. High pressure
then builds down into the Great Plains states on Monday, passing off
the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Weak low pressure may affect the
area Wednesday. High pressure returns to close out the new work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There is a chance for light rain late today and tonight as a
warm front lifts through the region. It is a brief window that
we could see any rain, and there isn`t any strong signals for
heavy rain, so expecting rain amounts to generally be less than
one quarter inch.

At this point, the risk for any other hazards appears very low.
The showers should precede the low level jet progressing over
our region, and thus the risk for any stronger winds mixing down
is low. Additionally, given the timing, instability (even
elevated instability) is going to be very limited. So while I
can`t rule out occasional lightning, even that threat is
limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will pass north of the area Sunday morning, and a
strong cold front follows through. A tight pressure gradient forms
over the area between low pressure over eastern Canada and New
England and high pressure building down into the Northern and
Central Plains states. Cold air advection will not be underway until
late Sunday and Sunday night. As a result, highs on Sunday will
generally be early in the day, and should be in the mid to upper 50s
for most of the region and in the low 60s for extreme southern New
Jersey and Delmarva.

The main story on Sunday and Sunday night will be the strong west to
northwest winds which will be increasing to 15 to 25 mph with 30 to
40 mph gusts. With loss of diurnal heating Sunday night, winds will
diminish to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Gusty conditions
continue into Monday.

This situation tends to result in Lake Effect snow well to the north
and west, and some of those snow showers may encroach the southern
Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, but accumulating snow is not
expected.

Lows Sunday night drop into the low to mid 30s. With cold air
advection underway, highs on Monday will be much colder, generally
in the mid to upper 40s. Cold Monday night with lows ion the upper
20s to low 30s, though generally warmer in the urban environments
and along the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts on
Tuesday, and weak low pressure passes through the region Tuesday
night and departs Wednesday morning. While some wintry precip is
possible for the higher elevations of the southern Poconos and far
northwest New Jersey, rain will be the dominant p-type.

High pressure then builds down into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Thursday and moves offshore Friday. Another storm system may
approach on Friday, but there are timing and placement
inconsistencies. For now, will follow the NBM and carry chance PoPs
(30 to 40 percent). Temperatures will be warm enough to support rain
throughout.

Temperatures will be seasonably chilly for this time of the year,
warming back to above normal levels by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through today...Prevailing VFR. However, occasional drop to MVFR
ceilings possible, especially after 21Z, and especially for KABE and
KRDG. Winds will start light and variable, but eventually settle out
of the S by 18Z. Wind speeds through today should remain light -
generally less than 10 Kt.

Tonight...A brief period of showers moving from W to E before 03Z
could result in MVFR ceilings. In the wake of the showers,
should see some modest improvement to VFR. Also expect surface
winds to shift to SSW and a low level jet is expected overhead
for much of the night resulting in low level wind shear across
the area.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 25 kt with 25 to
35 kt gusts.

Monday through Monday night...VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts
up to 30 kt, diminishing to less than 10 kt Monday night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR Tuesday, then sub-VFR possible
Tuesday night in SHRA.

Wednesday...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
As of 1 AM, winds at buoy 44065 are flirting with 25 kt. However,
winds are expected to decrease shortly.

Across the area, winds and seas should stay below Small Craft
Advisory Criteria through the day time hours today as the direction
gradually shifts from northerly to southerly. By this evening,
southerly winds are expected to increase on all waters. Therefore,
have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the overnight period. We
could see an abrupt shift to southwesterly or even westerly winds
very late tonight into early Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...A Gale Watch is in effect for Delaware Bay
and the Atlantic coastal waters. West to northwest winds will range
from 20 to 30 kt with 35 to 40 kt gusts. Winds begin to diminish
Monday afternoon.

Monday night...Lingering Small Craft Advisory conditions,
diminishing late.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ430-431.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Johnson
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Johnson/MPS
MARINE...Johnson/MPS