295
FXUS61 KPHI 081042
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
642 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide to the south today and tonight. A
cold front may bring a few showers on Sunday. Cooler conditions
prevail with an occasional shower potential Monday and Tuesday
as an upper low lingers nearby. High pressure builds Wednesday
and Thursday. Another front may approach towards week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not much to talk about weather wise to kick off the weekend.
Quasi- zonal flow will persist with little perturbation until a
shortwave trough begins approaching toward daybreak Sunday
morning. At the surface, high pressure will be located well to
our southwest. A westerly pressure gradient residing across the
region today, which will shift more southerly into tonight as a
weak cold front approaches by Sunday morning.

Some scattered diurnal cumulus will develop into this
afternoon. Overall though, a mostly sunny day is expected. Light
west to northwesterly winds this morning will increase and
become noticeably breezy near 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
by around noon or so. The pressure gradient will weaken later
today, so the winds should drop off pretty quickly toward
sunset, unlike Friday. Forecast high temperatures today will
range from the upper 70s to low 80s, including along the
immediate coast thanks to the modest offshore breeze. Dewpoints
will remain quite comfortable near 50 degrees. All in all, a
very pleasant early June day aside from the breeziness of the
wind.

For tonight, the approaching shortwave trough will result in
increasing mid-level clouds overnight. While the low levels will
remain dry, guidance remains persistent with indications of
some showers approaching from the northwest toward daybreak. Any
showers overnight will likely remain mostly northwest of I-78
and are not expected to amount to much QPF wise. A light south
to southwest wind can be expected overnight with temperatures
falling into the low to mid 60s across much of the area. Lows in
the mid to upper 50s are forecast for northwest of I-78.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, weak low pressure will pass just to our north,
sending a cold front southeastward across the region.
Instability is limited and most forcing stays to our north, so
right now just have a chance of showers except in the Poconos
and northernmost corner of NJ. Timing also isn`t too great as
the front appears to pass midday/early afternoon, and the
boundary appears to become less defined as it does so, hurting
convective chances. Clouds will be common, but it shouldn`t be a
totally cloudy day, especially by later in the day after
frontal passage. Highs mostly 80s I-95 south and east, 70s north
and west.

Cooler air pushes southeastward on Sunday night behind the
front, with some clearing, relatively light winds, and some
radiational cooling. Outside of the Delmarva, immediate coast
and urban corridor, 50s should be common.

Upper low and trough axis remaining overhead Monday with passing
weak shortwaves could result in spotty showers, but odds are
pretty low in any one spot, so have mostly slight chance POPs,
and mainly NW of I-95. Highs near 80 SE, 70s much of the rest of
the area, but 60s in the Pocs.

Spotty shower chance dwindles Monday night but reinvigorates
Tuesday with continued passing vort maxes. Lows Monday night
look similar to Sunday night, but highs Tuesday will be the
coolest of the period, with just about the whole CWA no higher
than the 70s, with 60s in the Pocs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge with surface high pressure returns Wednesday and
Thursday, with dry conditions and warming temperatures
enveloping the region. Highs return to the low-mid 80s for most
of the region for Wednesday, with mid-upper 80s on
Thursday...cooler along the shore and in the Poconos. Lows will
return to the 60s for most.

By Friday, the next cold front appears to start bearing down on
us from the northwest. This will increase the risk of showers
and thunderstorms, but will help increase the southwesterly
flow, so Friday looks like the warmest day of the forecast,
with temps possibly touching 90.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with scattered clouds. West to northwest winds
increasing to near 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts at times.
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings after
06Z. Winds becoming southwesterly near 5 kts, increasing toward
12Z. High confidence.

Outlook...

VFR conditions expected to generally prevail Sunday through
Wednesday. There is a slight chance of showers Sunday through
and Tuesday during daylight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. Westerly winds
near 10-15 kts today with gusts near 20 kts at times this
afternoon, especially near the coast. Winds shifting south to
southwest tonight. Seas 3-4 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...
Sunday through Wednesday: Conditions remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels. Wind gusts will be 15 kt or less with wave
heights 4 feet or less. Slight chance showers Sunday and
Tuesday.

Rip Currents...
For today, west to west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined
with wave heights of 1-2 feet and southeasterly swell of 1 foot
with a medium period of 7 seconds will result in a LOW risk of
rip currents.

For Sunday, southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined with wave
heights of 1-2 feet and southeasterly swell of 1 foot with a
medium period of 6-7 seconds will result in a LOW risk of rip
currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...RCM/Staarmann