911
FXUS61 KPHI 011907
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
307 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure initially centered over Quebec in the vicinity of
Hudson Bay will continue shifting southeast into the area,
remaining in control through the weekend and into early next
week. A slightly more unsettled pattern may begin to take shape
entering mid-week, with a cold front approaching from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure continues to build into the region, resulting in
a strong pressure gradient as it pushes Hurricanes Humberto and
Imelda out to sea. The resultant breezy northeast winds will
persist the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening for
inland locations. Communities along the coast will still see
breezy northeast winds with gusts around 20-25 mph overnight and
into early Thursday morning.

Tonight, winds inland will decrease as high pressure shifts
closer from the northwest, keeping skies mostly clear. Areas
along the coast will remain breezy. he incoming high from the
north doesn`t quite get over us tonight, so the bottom won`t
completely fall out with temperatures overnight. There still
will be a crisp chill in the air though with lows in the mid to
upper 40s. In northern NJ and southern Poconos, it will be even
colder, with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s. Temperatures and
winds will both likely be just a touch too high for frost
development.

For Thursday, high pressure will be overspread across the
Northeastern US. Mostly clear skies with cool temperatures once
again with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to around 70.
Northeast winds along the coast will still be gusting to around
20 mph during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level ridging initially centered over portions of the
Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions will shift slowly east into
our area through Saturday. At the surface, high pressure
centered over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England will
gradually shift eastward but remain in control.

Skies Thursday night will be partly cloudy across most of the
area, although with onshore flow persisting, skies may be mostly
cloudy in coastal locations. Any clouds should clear out Friday
and skies should remain partly to mostly clear through
Saturday.

It will be a chilly couple of nights with cool days. Lows
Thursday night will range from the low-mid 40s across much of
eastern PA and inland NJ, to near 50 in coastal areas and the
Delmarva. Highs on Friday look to be in the low 70s areawide.
Lows Friday night will be very similar to Thursday night.
Saturday will see a return to above normal temperatures, with
mid-upper 70s prevalent areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expansive mid-level ridging centered over the area Saturday
night will remain in place through Monday. Monday night and into
Tuesday, the pattern will begin to become more unsettled. A
weak shortwave may pass near or just north of the area on
Tuesday. In addition, a trough centered over portions of Ontario
Tuesday morning will shift eastward through Wednesday. While
the primary trough looks to remain north of the area, height
falls and an enhancement to mid-level flow look likely,
providing at least some synoptic-scale ascent. At the surface,
high pressure initially in control will weaken some and shift
east Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front may approach from the
west on Wednesday.

It currently appears that at least some chance for rain will
exist across parts of the area both Tuesday and Wednesday. While
the pattern does not appear to support widespread rainfall or
heavy amounts, any chance at some beneficial rainfall is welcome
given the relatively dry pattern that has taken shape across
the region as of late. For now, have low-end chance PoPs (around
30%) areawide both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Temperatures look to remain above average Saturday night
through Tuesday, with highs generally in the upper 70s to low
80s and lows generally in the mid-upper 50s. Temperatures may be
closer to seasonal norms on Wednesday depending on the extent
of any precipitation or present cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today...VFR. Northeast winds around 10 kt at KRDG/KABE,
10- 15 kt at the I-95 terminals and KMIV, with 15-20 kt winds
at KACY. Gusts at KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG hover around 20 kt, with
gusts at MIV around 20-25 kt. Gusts expected to be highest along
and near the coast, with a period of 25-30 kt gusts anticipated
at KACY during the day. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Northeast winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Thursday...VFR. East/northeast winds around 10 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
All Gale Warnings along the coastal ocean waters were
downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory. Wind gusts tonight will
remain around 25 kts, falling to around 20 kts Thursday
afternoon. Seas will remain elevated around 7 to 9 feet tonight,
only falling to around 5 to 7 feet Thursday afternoon. For the
lower Delaware Bay, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
Wind gusts around 25 kts will eventually fall below criteria by
Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...While winds are expected to
have diminished below SCA criteria by Thursday night, seas will
remain elevated. Seas on Thursday night look to be 5-7 feet.
Seas should diminish at some point Friday to below 5 feet, but
perhaps not until the afternoon or evening hours. Therefore, the
SCA has been extended into Friday afternoon for all ocean
zones.

Friday night through Monday... Winds below 25 kt and seas below
5 feet. No marine headlines anticipated. Fair weather.

Rip Currents...

A high risk of rip currents is likely to continue through the
end of the week. However, the surf program ended on Tuesday,
September 30. No further surf forecasts or rip current
statements will be issued until May 2026.

Always obey posted Beach Flags. If you enter the surf zone,
always have a floatation device with you and swim near a
lifeguard if possible. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float and do not swim against the current. If able, swim
parallel to the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore
and call or wave for help.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strengthening northeast winds and long period swells arriving
from Humberto will lead to a piling up of water along the
Atlantic coast, back bays, and Delaware Bay. Widespread minor
coastal flooding will develop for these areas with the afternoon
to evening high tide cycle this afternoon and evening. Minor
coastal flooding may linger within the back bays of Ocean and
Sussex Counties into Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is also
expected for the tidal Delaware River.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for minor coastal
flooding from Ocean County and south and Delaware Bay. A Coastal
Flood Advisory is now in effect for the high tide this evening
for the tidal Delaware River.

Spotty minor coastal flooding is forecast to occur with the
tonight and Thursday night high tides along the eastern shore of
Chesapeake Bay, however impacts are expected to be limited
enough to preclude and advisory at this time.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ020>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/MJL
MARINE...Cooper/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...