277
FXUS61 KPHI 270349
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1149 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Storm Warnings for Delaware Bay, the Delaware coastal waters,
and the Delaware offshore waters have been replaced with Gale
Warnings.


The High wind warning for the Delaware Beaches has been replaced
with a Wind Advisory.

Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. The nor`easter will retrograde back towards New Jersey over the
weekend before finally departing on Tuesday. This will bring periods
of additonal rainfall and strong winds to the region.

2. More Moderate to Minor tidal flooding expected for tonight
and Sunday. Highest levels water levels will trend less as the
storm begins to weaken later Sunday.

3. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at the Jersey
Shore and Delaware Beaches through Sunday. Additional beach and dune
erosion can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The nor`easter will retrograde back towards New
Jersey over the weekend before finally departing on Tuesday. This
will bring periods of additonal rainfall and strong winds to the
region.

Broad high pressure remains centered over eastern Canada and extends
back into the Great Lakes. While the high will weaken and lift into
northern portions of the Province of Quebec, it will still be strong
enough to create a tight pressure gradient between it and the low
off the New Jersey coast. While we`ll see a little bit of lull in
the winds overnight, an increase is once again expected tomorrow.

We will keep the High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories in place,
but extend them into Sunday. We have posted new Wind Advisories for
our remaining zones to the north and west. Given that trees still
have their leaves, the combination of these winds and heavy rain
will result in downed trees and also power lines. Property damage
cannot be ruled at the coast where the winds are highest.

With the track closer to the coast, the higher PoPs that were
introduced early this morning will remain in place. PoPs are pretty
much in the 80 to 100 percent range across the whole area tonight
and Sunday. Event rainfall totals will be in the 1 to 2 inch range
along the I-95 corridor and points north and west with as much as 3
inches over much of eastern New Jersey. Locally heavier amounts are
possible. This will be over a 48 to 60 hour timeframe, so widespread
freshwater flooding is not anticipated at this time. That said, the
Millstone River at Griggstown is now expected to crest above flood
stage. This is our only forecast point above flood stage. It goes
without saying that and freshwater runoff will exacerbate the
flooding along the coast. It simply will not be able to drain. We
cannot rule out a few embedded thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...More Moderate to Minor tidal flooding expected
for tonight and Sunday. Highest levels water levels will trend
less as the storm begins to weaken later Sunday.

A slow moving Nor`easter offshore will remain into Sunday and
begin to weaken. Although this current/most recent high tide will
be/has been the most impactful, we`re not out of the woods yet
along the coast and back bays. Additional flooding will occur
over the next several high tides. There are no changes with the
headlines right now. While widespread major flooding is not
expected going forward, widespread moderate is.

For Delaware Bay communities, north/northeast winds will keep
pushing water to the west side of the Bay and onto the Delaware
coast. This will increase the water levels for those communities.
The Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until 2 AM Sunday
for Kent and Sussex, DE. Moderate Flood levels are forecasted for
Cumberland and Salem, NJ as well as New Castle, DE, so the Warning
will remain in place across these areas.

For the tidal Delaware River, we expect the minor tidal flooding
will take place both with the upcoming high tide this afternoon
and again early Sunday morning. The strong North to Northeast
flow is for the most part keeping the water levels in check for
those areas.

As mentioned above,the north to northeast winds will limit the
tidal flooding threat for the Chesapeake Bay. Some spotty minor
tidal flooding is anticipated at Claiborne around dawn Sunday,
but nothing higher than that at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at
the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through Sunday. Additional
beach and dune erosion can be expected.

A nor`easter is bringing strong north to northeast winds and
high seas for our marine zones. Breaking waves within the surf
zone of 6 to 12 feet will occur through Sunday. Dangerous rip
currents will accompany the high surf, making it extremely
dangerous to enter the water at any time through Sunday. The
high surf and strong winds are resulting in areas of beach
erosion across the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Across
some locales, large breaking waves and run- up are also eroding
dunes.

The High Risk for life threatening rip currents remains in
effect through Sunday for all beaches. A High Surf Advisory is
in effect for all beaches through Sunday as well.

The risk for dangerous rip currents will begin to decrease on
Monday as winds shift offshore and wave heights begin to
decrease. For now have opted for a MODERATE risk for all shore
points.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...High probability MVFR conditions with low CIGs, gusty
wind, and periods of rain. Prevailing vis conditions should
remain VFR with periods of MVFR in more moderate showers, so
included a TEMPO group covering that. N winds 15 to 20 kt with
30 to 35 kt gusts inland and gusts as high as 40 kt from time to
time at KACY. Winds will trend towards N/NW by dawn. Medium
confidence.

Sunday...Widespread MVFR cigs in the morning with continued
waves of showers and gusty wind. Periods of reduced vis in
heavier showers is likely. By early afternoon, ensemble
soundings suggest a push of low-level moisture increasing
probability to 50-60% for IFR cigs from northeast to southwest
with most likely arrival to PHL and surrounding terminals around
15z, though the pessimistic end of the goal posts could sit as
early as ~13z. RDG and ABE lag a bit behind farther inland. A
period of low level wind shear is possible in the mid to late
morning hours as a belt of stronger 925 mb flow spreads inland
on the west side of the low, but forecast soundings all suggest
some depth of a mixed layer at the surface and thus gusts
continuing to 25-30 knots. For that reason, held off on the LLWS
mention for now, but if it appears that we won`t mix quite as
efficiently and surface gusts will be less, LLWS mention may be
needed. W to N winds 15 to 20 kt with 30 to 35 kt gusts.
Low/medium confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Continued MVFR/IFR conditions in lingering SHRA.
Diminishing winds.

Monday through Monday night...Conditions improve to MVFR, then
to VFR late Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Widespread storm force winds can be expected across our central and
northern nearshore and offshore waters through midday Sunday. For
our southern waters and Delaware bay, storm force winds will
continue through at least today and be followed up with Gales at
some point.

For our central and northern ocean zones, winds will average 35 to
45 kt with gusts as high as 60 kt through tonight. On the Delaware
Bay for the remainder of the day, winds will average 20 to 30 kt
with gusts as high as 40 kt for the upper bay and up to 50 kt for
the lower bay.

Seas will be very rough, as high as 15 to 20 ft on the ocean
during this time. VSBY restrictions in rain.

Sunday...Widespread Gales are expected with gusts of 35-45 kts,
gradually diminishing below Gale criteria through late afternoon.
Seas 8-12 feet early diminish to 6-8 feet late.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Conditions expected to improve considerably. Small
Craft Advisory conditions likely.

Monday-Monday night...Conditions continue to improve. Seas may
remain above advisory levels while winds continue to diminish
below 25 knots.

Tuesday through Thursday...Conditions expected to be below advisory
levels.

Rip Currents...Please see Key Message 3 above.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-
     015>023-027.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026.
     High Wind Warning until noon EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for DEZ001>004.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for DEZ004.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431-454-455.
     Storm Warning until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ450>453-480>483.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ485.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/Kruzdlo/PO/Robertson
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/PO/Robertson
MARINE...Kruzdlo/PO/Robertson