233
FXUS61 KPHI 040736
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
336 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers are expected to impact portions of the region through
tonight.

2. Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler temperatures and
dry weather through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are expected to impact portions of the
region through tonight.

Low pressure developing along the stalled frontal boundary to
our south early this morning will provide another round of
showers across portions of the region. The timing of the showers
will be focused during the afternoon hours Sunday, but could
begin near/south of Philly in the morning and linger area wide
into the evening or overnight hours. PoPs have retreated
slightly and now range from around 30-50% along and north of
I-80 to around 45-55% within the I-95 corridor and Philly
metro, to 60-70% across Delmarva and far southern New Jersey.
The latest QPF forecast has around 0.10" or less along the I-95
corridor and points north and west with around 0.25-0.75" across
the southern Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. It`s possible
the showers don`t make it much farther northwest than the I-95
corridor. There still remains some spread in the guidance as to
exactly how far north and west the showers will make it.

Given overcast skies, easterly winds, and showers, temperatures
today will be cooler with highs likely only reaching the low to
mid 60s in many areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler
temperatures and dry weather through much of the week.

Canadian high pressure and a much cooler air mass will build into
the region starting Monday. Monday will feature mostly sunny skies
with highs within a few degrees of 70, though a stiff northwest
breeze will make it feel cooler. Sunny skies continue on Tuesday,
though highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid 60s for much
of the region which is upwards of 10 degrees below normal. Lows
will fall mainly into the 40s, with 50s along the coast and the
upper 30s in the Poconos. Some areas of frost will be possible
mainly north of I-78 late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

As cold advection wanes by mid-week, the airmass will begin to
modify and trend warmer as southerly flow returns. Highs remain in
the 60s on Wednesday, before warming back into the 70s again for
Thursday and Friday. With high pressure remaining in control, mostly
clear skies and dry weather is expected through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Widespread MVFR cigs during the morning with IFR or lower
cigs during the afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers move
in through the morning into the early afternoon. Shower coverage
lessens during the evening hours. Winds continue out of the ENE
to east at 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Sub-VFR conditions possible with a slight chance of
showers (early) and patchy fog overnight.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR. Other than some gusty winds possible
on Monday, no significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains for all of the Atlantic coastal
waters for 5 foot seas and wind gusts up to 25 kts. NE winds around
15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. For tonight, there will be lingering
SCA conditions due to seas around 5 feet early, before diminishing
overnight.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...No marine headlines expected, although
a few gusts up to 25 kt possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...No marine headlines anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/MJL/PO/WFO PHI
AVIATION...DeSilva/Guzzo/MJL/PO
MARINE...DeSilva/Guzzo/MJL/PO