752
FXUS61 KPHI 260101
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
901 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAFs. Few changes for the
other sections during the evening update. Strong Noe`easter
continues to deepen and move towards our coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A developing Nor`easter east of the Mid-Atlantic coast lifts
to the north, then retrogrades back towards New Jersey over the
weekend before finally departing on Tuesday. This will bring
periods of rain and strong winds at the coast to the region.

2. Multiple rounds of significant tidal flooding expected into
this weekend. Major Coastal Flood levels expected for New Jersey
Atlantic Coast, Delaware Atlantic Coast, and portions of
southern Delaware Bay. Coastal Flood Warning expanded to
northern portions of Delaware Bay.

3. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at the
Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through Sunday. Beach erosion
is likely and breaching of sand dunes is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A developing Nor`easter east of the Mid-Atlantic
coast lifts to the north, then retrogrades back towards New Jersey
over the weekend before finally departing on Tuesday. This will
bring periods of rain and strong winds at the coast to the region.

Broad high pressure remains centered over eastern Canada and extends
back into the Great Lakes. While the high will weaken and lift into
northern portions of the Province of Quebec, it will still be strong
enough to create a tight pressure gradient between it and low pressure
east of the Mid-Atlantic. The trend with the last run of models has
been to bring the storm closer to the shore, and even have the center
of the Nor`easter move into New Jersey Saturday night.

A tight north to northeast pressure gradient develops tonight and
will persist through the weekend as this Nor`easter retrogrades
back towards New Jersey Saturday through Saturday night. Winds
increase tonight, generally to 25 to 35 mph with 40 to 50 mph
inland, and gusts up to 60 mph at the coast. Will keep High Wind
Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect through Saturday night,
but additional headlines may be needed on Sunday depending on
the strength and position of the low on Sunday. This trend may
result in stronger winds farther west as well. Given that trees
still have their leaves, the combination of these winds and
heavy rain (more on that in a bit) will result in tree damage,
as well as power line and potentially roof damage with highest
impacts at the coast.

The farther inland trend also results in higher PoPs inland as well
as and higher rainfall over the area. Rain spreads into the region
from east to west starting later tonight, and then on Saturday,
PoPs will be 60 to 70 percent across the southern Poconos,
Lehigh Valley, and far northwest New Jersey and 80 to 90 percent
across the rest of New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, and
Delmarva. PoPs will then be 90 to 100 percent across the whole
area Saturday night and Sunday. QPF has also increased, with 1
to 2 inches of QPF north and west of Philadelphia and across
Delmarva, and 2 to 4 inches along the I-95 corridor, and as much
as 3 to 5 inches over much of eastern New Jersey. This will be
over a 48 to 60 hour timeframe, so widespread flooding is nor
anticipated at this time, though there may be some flooding
concerns by late Sunday and Sunday night. In addition, runoff
from this rain may exacerbate coastal flooding, which will be
covered by Coastal Flood Warnings. Cannot rule out a few
embedded thunderstorms, mainly at the coast, during this time.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple rounds of significant tidal flooding
expected into this weekend. Major Coastal Flood levels are now
expected for the New Jersey Atlantic Coast, the Delaware
Atlantic Coast, and portions of central and southern Delaware
Bay. The Coastal Flood Warning has been expanded to northern
portions of Delaware Bay.

With a slow moving nor`easter and multiple days of strong
northeast winds expected, the confidence in the threat for tidal
flooding remains high. In fact, the threat for the New Jersey
Atlantic Coast, Delaware Atlantic Coast, and portions of
southern Delaware Bay to reach Major Flood levels around the
time of high tide Saturday morning has increased, so we have
increased the forecast for these areas to reach Major Flood
levels. Strong onshore flow that has persisted for several days
is resulting in water piling up across tidal tributaries and
within back bays of coastal communities. Tidal levels will also
be enhanced with astronomical tides increasing with the upcoming
Full Moon Saturday.

For Delaware Bay communities, north/northeast winds will keep
pushing water to the west side of the Bay and onto the Delaware
coast. This will increase the forecast for Major Flood levels
around southern and central Delaware. The Coastal Flood Warning
remains 2 AM Sunday for Kent and Sussex, DE. The forecast is now
expected to reach the Moderate Flood level for Cumberland and
Salem, NJ as well as New Castle, DE, so the Warning was expanded
to these area.

For the tidal Delaware River, widespread minor tidal flooding
continues to be forecast, so the Coastal Flood Advisory remains
in effect through Saturday Night for the tidal Delaware River.
While not currently expected, we cannot rule out Moderate tidal
flooding getting to Delaware River communities.

As mentioned above, more north/northeasterly winds will limit
the tidal flooding threat for the Chesapeake Bay. Some spotty
minor tidal flooding is anticipated at Claiborne, but nothing
higher than that at this time.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Dangerous rip currents and high surf are
expected at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through
Sunday. Beach erosion is likely and breaching of sand dunes is
possible.

A nor`easter off our coast will bring strong north to northeast
winds and high seas for our marine zones. Breaking waves within
the surf zone of 6 to 12 feet are expected through Sunday.
Dangerous rip currents will accompany the high surf, making it
extremely dangerous to enter the water at any time through
Sunday. The high surf and strong winds will likely result in
areas of beach erosion across the Jersey Shore and Delaware
Beaches. Large breaking waves in the surf zone and high water
levels may result in breaching of sand dunes.

The High Risk for life threatening rip currents remains in effect
through Sunday for all beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect
for all beaches through Sunday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR many areas overnight with slow increase in clouds
and rains from east to west. KACY will go MVFR around 04Z then
the lower conditions continue slowly west towards other sites
Sat morning. North to Northeast winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts 30
kts. Lighter winds for KABE/KRDG. Medium confid.

Saturday...MVFR, but IFR conditions along the New Jersey coast.
Areas of rain especially east of the Delaware River. Winds
northerly 10 to 20 knots gusts to 30 knots. Coastal locations
gusting to 40 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Widespread MVFR and IFR conds
in rain, fog, and low CIGs. A few TSRA may impact KACY and
possibly KMIV. N to NE winds 15 to 20 kt with 30 to 35 kt gusts
inland and gusts as high as 50 kt from time to time at KACY.

Sunday night...Continued MVFR/IFR conds in lingering SHRA.
Diminishing winds.

Monday through Monday night...Conditions improve to MVFR, then
to VFR late Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Widespread Storm Force winds developing on the nearshore and
offshore waters overnight, and Gale Force winds developing on
Delaware Bay. For now, warnings are in effect through Saturday
night, but additional headlines are likely to be needed Sunday
and possibly Sunday night.

On the ocean, winds will average 35 to 45 kt with gusts as high
as 60 kt, and on Delaware Bay, winds will average 20 to 30 kt
with gusts as high as 45 kt tonight through Saturday night.

Seas will be very rough, as high as 15 to 20 ft on the ocean
during this time. VSBY restrictions in rain.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Conditions expected to improve considerably.
Small Craft Advisory conditions likely.

Monday-Monday night...Conditions continue to improve. Seas may
remain above advisory levels while winds continue to diminish
below 25 knots.

Tuesday...Conditions expected to be below advisory levels.

Rip Currents...Please see Key Message 3 above.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-101>106.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ016.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ008>010-012-013-
     015>023-027.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001>003.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for DEZ004.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431.
     Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>453-480>483.
     Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ454-455.
     Storm Warning until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ485.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPS/Robertson/WFO PHI
AVIATION...MPS/WFO PHI
MARINE...MPS/WFO PHI