568
FXUS61 KPHI 021853
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
153 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Aside from potential for nocturnal fog development tonight
and Tuesday night, generally tranquil weather is expected to
prevail through the middle of the week.

2. The next chance for rain returns late this week and into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Aside from potential for nocturnal fog
development tonight and Tuesday night, generally tranquil
weather is expected to prevail through the middle of the week.

High pressure will remain in place within the vicinity of our
area through the middle of the week. Dry weather is expected to
continue through Wednesday amid warming temperatures each day.

Scattered to broken high cloud cover will persist through the
middle of the week despite surface high pressure. Temperatures
are expected to increase back to above normal values, warming
each day through Wednesday. High temperatures look to be in the
upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday, and in the low to mid 70s
Wednesday. Overnights will becoming increasingly milder (no
frost/freeze potential). Dry weather is expected to persist
through Wednesday.

There is potential for areas of fog development both tonight
and Tuesday night. Dewpoints will also be on the rise each day.
Given mostly clear skies, light winds, and long nights, we
anticipate some fog development across the area during the
overnight periods. The latest hi-res guidance suggests the lower
visibilities (and thus higher dense fog probabilities) will be
along and southeast of the I-95 corridor and across the coastal
plain. Confidence remains low on any dense fog, but trends will
continue to be monitored. Where fog does develop, it will likely
be slow to mix out after sunrise Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings. Light southerly flow will promote dewpoint advection
and the solar insolation is relatively weak until closer to
midday, which will limit mixing earlier in the morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The next chance for rain returns late this week and
into the weekend.

The ridging that has be in place across the area for the past
several days will finally begin to break down by Wednesday night
into Thursday as a potent upper trough over central CONUS cuts off
and lifts northeastward into portions of the Great Lakes and
southern Canada by the end of the week. As this occurs, broad
troughing is expected to take shape across the eastern CONUS as a
few lobes of upper level energy will pivot through the region
Thursday and over the weekend. At the surface, low pressure over the
Midwest is forecast to track northeast into Canada as it weakens
into Thursday with a trailing cold front back to the southwest.
After this time, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how
this system will evolve to impact our local area.

At the very least, broad low pressure looks to lift well to the
north and west of the area Thursday into Friday. This is expected to
bring rain chances back to the region, as a cold front slowly
approaches the area. Latest guidance indicates that the frontal
progression has slowed, meaning precipitation now looks to occur
Thursday afternoon into Friday. PoPs are generally in the 50-70%
range for most of the area with greatest PoPs further north and
west. However, the better upper level support as depicted by the NAM
(in its last days in operation) and other global guidance remains
displaced to the N+W of the area, it should be noted that these PoPs
may in fact be a bit too high.

Heading into this weekend, ensemble guidance indicates negative
anomalies and lowered surface pressure across the region. This
indicates that the pattern may remain a bit unsettled through the
weekend and into early next week. This is supported by NBM PoPs
which as a 20-30% chance for showers on Saturday, less than 10% of
precipitation on Sunday, and 30-40% PoPs returning on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR. South-southwest winds 5-10 kt. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR to start, with fog development likely after about
06Z. Some fog is likely to impact all terminals, but the
greatest potential for IFR restrictions is expected to be at
KILG/KMIV/KACY. Winds becoming light with calm periods
expected. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...Restrictions in fog are expected to continue through
around 14Z, with conditions improving to VFR thereafter. South-
southwest winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Primarily VFR. Patchy to areas of fog possible which
may cause sub-VFR conditions at times.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR. No significant weather
expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions probable. Rain
chances daily with a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards through Tuesday. South-southwest winds
generally 5-10 kt through tonight, becoming more southerly or
south-southeasterly at around 10 kt on Tuesday. Seas 1-3 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...No marine headlines
expected. South winds generally around 5-15 kt with seas around 2-3
feet. Fair weather.

Thursday through Saturday...SCA conditions possible. While winds and
gusts are expected to remain below 25 kt, seas around 3-5 feet are
expected. Daily showers possible.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/DeSilva/Staarmann
AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/Staarmann
MARINE...Cooper/DeSilva/Staarmann