574
FXUS61 KPHI 050600
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday. A cold front comes
through on Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
We stay mostly clear overnight with only some high clouds and light
winds. High pressure is positioned south of the region and dew
points will be in the low to mid 50s tonight which will help prevent
much runaway radiational cooling. Overnight lows will cool off into
the low to mid 50s as well. Due to this, some patchy fog is possible
into Sunday morning.

For Sunday, high pressure shifts slightly offshore, helping keep a
light, but warm S-SW flow across the region. This keeps the tranquil
weather pattern going with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and a
mostly sunny sky.

Overnight Sunday, we see temperatures mainly in the 50s. Dew points
will also be in the 50s, and combined with light winds, will lead to
another round of potential patchy fog. Otherwise, it is a mostly
clear night as we continue to feel the influence from the high
pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes to the forecast. Mainly clear weather with above
normal temperatures expected to kick off the week. High pressure
slides offshore with southerly return flow setting up. This will
result in high temperatures both Monday and Tuesday getting into the
upper 70s/low 80s for most areas (low to mid 70s along the coast and
over the southern Poconos). Overnight lows Monday night look to
mainly range from the mid 50s to around 60. There could also be some
patchy fog around overnight Monday night into early Tuesday.

Some showers are possible late in the day Tuesday as a frontal
system approaches, but the bulk of the rain should hold off until
Tuesday Night and Wednesday (more on that below).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The above normal temperatures come to an end as we get into the
middle and end of the upcoming week. A fast moving shortwave digs
through southern Canada/northern US, moving toward the northeastern
US. At the surface, low pressure slides to the north with a cold
front slowly pushing into our region. This will bring a period of
rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. Still some minor differences in
timing among the different forecast guidance but at this time most
guidance indicating the majority of the rain will be overnight
Tuesday night with the cold front crossing the area around sunrise
Wednesday. So all in all, high confidence of a mid-week rain event
and overall, it should just be a beneficial rain. NBM probability of
> 1 inch still hovers around 30-40% over the area. Some models have
some elevated instability, so cannot rule out a rumble of thunder,
but the severe and flash flooding threat seems very low currently.

Once the front clears the area by Wednesday night, it will be
seasonably cool for the end of the week. Another expansive area of
high pressure builds in, which should result in a dry and tranquil
end to the week. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday look to be in
the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s and some potential upper 30s
in the Poconos and northern NJ.

Beyond Friday, the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain. Some
guidance has high pressure holding firm through the weekend while
some wants to bring a weak system through or to our south. Still
about a week out though so we stayed with the NBM which brings most
areas about a 20 percent chance of showers Friday night into early
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of Tonight...VFR with winds light (2-5 knots) and
generally favoring a southwesterly direction. Patchy fog may
develop late in the overnight hours which may briefly drop
visibility, most likely at KMIV (50-70% chance) and KACY
(30-50%). High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions at most
terminals with low confidence on visibility restrictions from
fog at KMIV/KACY.

Sunday...VFR. South to southwesterly winds around 5 knots or less.
High confidence.

Sunday Night...Primarily VFR though patchy fog is possible
again at KMIV/KACY (50-70%) with lower potential of patchy fog
at other terminals (20-40%). Moderate confidence on prevailing
VFR with lower confidence on any visibility restrictions due to
fog.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Vsby restrictions possible overnight
Monday night into early Tuesday due to patchy fog...best chances for
this at MIV, TTN, RDG, ABE. Otherwise VFR.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected with
periods of rain and low clouds coming through.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through Sunday night. S to SW winds
around 5-10 kts withs seas 2 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday Night...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Wind gusts on the ocean could get near
25 kt at times, resulting in potential SCA conditions.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions expected with
gales possible (20-30%). Northerly wind gusts around 25-30 kt with
seas 5 to 7 feet.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/Hoeflich
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/Hoeflich