320
FXUS61 KPHI 300051
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
851 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Advisories for Ocean County (NJ) and Sussex County
(DE) will be allowed to expire at 9 PM this evening.

Updated Rip Current Section for Wednesday and Thursday.

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure over the Gulf of Maine departs as high pressure
builds over the area.

2. Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back bays of New
Jersey and Delaware.

3. Unsettled weather possible Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure over the Gulf of Maine departs as high
pressure builds over the area.

The former nor`easter, now weak low pressure, over the Gulf of Maine
continues to depart late tonight. High pressure centered near West
Virginia will build east late tonight and into Wednesday.

Clouds over the area will gradually scatter out late tonight. With
abundant low level moisture over the area and winds becoming nearly
calm, patchy fog will develop during the early morning hours. Fog
will lift and dissipate Wednesday morning, giving way to mostly
sunny skies. Mild with slightly above normal temperatures on
Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back bays
of New Jersey and Delaware.

Tidal levels continue to decline and recede as offshore flow
continues to allow the back bays to drain. While some of the
back bays of Barnegat Bay, Rehoboth Bay, Jefferson Creek and
Little Assawoman Bay may see some spotty minor tidal flooding
continue through Wednesday, the bulk of the threat has now
ended. As a result, the Coastal Flood Advisories for Ocean
County, NJ and Sussex County, DE will allow to expire at 9 PM
tonight.

Outside of these areas, a few locales may touch spotty minor
with tonight`s high tide cycle, otherwise, no further tidal
flooding is expected elsewhere.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather possible Friday through
Sunday.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area late Friday into
Friday night. As it moves into the area, there will be a chance of
showers. However, as the vorticity impulse aloft weakens, the
showers may dissipate for many areas as the move eastward. However,
additional rain fall is expected to move back into the area Saturday
night into Sunday. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop
along the front as it stalls to our south Saturday, then move
northward across the area through Sunday. Showers will increase
Saturday night into Sunday as a couple of short wave/vorticity
impulses move into the area, along with the surface low
pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Predominantly VFR with a low chance ~30% for MVFR vis
restrictions in fog after 08z. Light to calm wind. Moderate
confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. W-SW winds less than 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Occasional MVFR conditions with a
chance of showers.

Saturday night through Sunday...MVFR conditions increase, possible
IFR, with increasing rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight through Wednesday.
Overall, a westerly flow around 10 kt, becoming south to southwest
Wednesday afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday night...Conditions expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Sunday...SCA conditions possible.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday...Northwest winds in the morning around 5 to 10
mph will become south in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of
1 to 2 feet are expected with a lingering 1 to 2 foot easterly
swell around 8 to 10 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted
to maintain a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for both the
Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For Thursday...South-southwest winds increase to around 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave
heights of 1 to 3 feet are expected with a 2 foot easterly swell
around 8 to 10 seconds. Given the increasing parallel flow along
the New Jersey Coast, have opted to go with a MODERATE risk for
rip currents; with a LOW risk for rip currents for the Delaware
Beaches.

The surf season will conclude for the year on September 30th. No
further rip current forecasts will be issued beyond September
30th until 2027.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020-
     026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003-
     004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/MJL/MPS/RCM
AVIATION...MPS/RCM/MLB
MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM