777
FXUS61 KPHI 111117
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
617 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A much colder airmass will be in place over the region today
with high pressure centered near the South Central US. A cold
front with cross our area later Wednesday with high pressure
building towards the end of the week through the the weekend.
The next low pressure system potentially arrives late Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Wake-up temperatures this morning will be in the mid-20s to around
30, with wind chill values as low as the teens.

A strong cyclone will lift into southeastern Canada on Tuesday as
strong high pressure remains centered near the Gulf coast. This will
result in a strong westerly pressure gradient across our region on
Tuesday. A surface ridge will pass across the area Tuesday night,
which will help relax the gradient and shift winds southwesterly.

During the daytime period Tuesday, the westerly gradient winds will
increase substantially. Forecast soundings support sustained winds
around 20-25 mph by late morning and into the afternoon with most
areas with gusts near 35-40 mph. Along the immediate Atlantic coast
could see winds sustained near 30 mph at times with gusts 40-45 mph
possible. The winds will be close to advisory criteria, but most
guidance suggests we should remain safely shy of warranting an
advisory.

Cold advection will begin to wane into the afternoon, but 850 mb
temperatures around -10C to -12C will only support high temperatures
in the low to mid 40s for most areas. Factoring in the breezy
conditions as well, wind chills will make it feel like the 30s in
the afternoon. We should also see widespread stratocumulus
development, especially across our NJ and PA counties, so it should
be a partly to mostly cloudy and raw day in most areas.

High res guidance suggests there will be enough mid level moisture
and steep lapse rates to produce some flurries or light snow showers
near and north of I-78, and perhaps as far south as central NJ and
the northern Philly suburbs (much less likely for the latter). In
any case, we`ve added a mentionable slight chance of snow showers
for some of these areas. The southern Poconos have a better chance
at experiencing their first flakes of the season. A light dusting
less than a half inch cannot be ruled out if a lake effect streamer
can stall over the area for long enough.

The strong daytime winds will gradually lessen into Tuesday night,
but will remain around 10-15 mph overnight. With the cessation of
cold advection and winds shifting southwesterly, temperatures won`t
be as cold as the previous night. Lows will range from the upper 20s
to mid 30s, producing wind chills in the 20s for most areas by dawn
Wednesday morning. Skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Blustery winds continue Wednesday as a tight pressure gradient
lingers over the region. Deep mixing will promote wind gusts in
the range of 25-30mph through the afternoon with highs remain
seasonably chilly in the 40s to low 50s.

A weak front should slide through late however there`s not much
in the way of moisture so it shouldn`t amount to much impact
for the region. The upper level trough should be exiting the
region Wednesday evening with high pressure building in its
wake. This should relax the pressure gradient enough on Thursday
to see the wind gusts come down as well. At few gusts up to 25
mph could mix down as soundings suggest we could mix up to about
850mb where winds are 30-35kts. Forecast guidance doesn`t show
much in the way of temperature advection behind the front
Wednesday as temperatures dont look to change much with highs
again in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Thursday night look to
be cooler though, mainly in the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The high pressure system continues to build towards the weekend
and as a result, mainly dry conditions are expected.
Temperatures on Friday and Saturday look to be near or just
below climo, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Temperatures look to warm up to a few degrees above climo on
Sunday as southwest flow returns ahead of the next approaching
system. However with the return of southerly return flow, so do
the chances for rain, peaking around 30-40% Sunday night. Coming
out of the weekend, an upper level trough looks to sweep another
front through the region with cooler air returning for early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tuesday...VFR ceilings. Slight chance of a brief snow shower or
flurries mainly at ABE, possibly as far south as RDG/TTN. Some
visibility restrictions possible with a passing snow shower, but
confidence remains too low at this time to include in the TAFs.
WNW winds near 20-25 kts with persistent gusts around 30-35 kts
much of the day. Some peak gusts near 40 kts possible. Low
confidence in any impacts from snow showers; high confidence
otherwise.

Tuesday night...VFR ceilings. Westerly winds 15-20 kts with gusts up
to 30 kts early, diminishing to around 10 kts and shifting toward
the southwest between 03Z-06Z. High confidence.


Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 knots,
particularly during the daytime hours.

Friday and Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings in effect across all marine zones. Westerly winds
will increase around daybreak to 25-35 kts with gusts up to 40
kts at times. Seas 4-7 feet.

Winds will diminish some into Tuesday night to around 20-30 kts and
shift toward the southwest after midnight. Seas 3-6 feet. Another
Small Craft Advisory will be needed for all coastal waters once the
Gale Warning has expired.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...SCA conditions likely (70% chance).
West winds gusting around 25-30 kts. Seas 4 to 7 feet Wednesday
diminish to 3 to 5 feet Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...SCA conditions possible (10-20% chance).
WNW winds gusting to around 20 kts.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Deal/MJL
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...AKL/Deal
LONG TERM...AKL/Deal
AVIATION...Deal/MJL
MARINE...Deal