012
FXUS61 KPHI 162245
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
645 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Midwest and Great Lakes today will
gradually shift eastward, then settle over our area Friday night as
it weakens. As the high quickly shifts offshore into the weekend, a
strong cold front crosses our area Sunday night into Monday. High
pressure builds in for Tuesday, then another cold front may arrive
on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight, skies remain clear as high pressure continues to build
in. NNW winds diminish with loss of mixing post-sunset but
remain elevated, around 10 mph, thanks to the tight gradient
remaining across the region. This breeze is expected to prevent
strong radiational cooling across the area tonight, though some
sheltered locations may radiate better locally. Overnight lows
are expected in the mid 30s to low 40s. The growing season has
ended for the Pocono Plateau, Lehigh Valley, and northwestern
NJ. Outside of those locations, temperatures and winds are
currently expected to remain higher than preferred for frost
development, thus no advisory has been issued at this time.

For Friday, the center of high pressure builds into the Ohio
River valley and Appalachian Mountains, just to the west of our
region. The day will be less breezy as a result, with winds
remaining around 10 mph, with a few gusts up to 20 mph possible.
Conditions will remain dry with highs reaching into the low-mid
60s for most locations. With dew points remaining in the low
30s, minimum RHs will be in the low-mid 30% range. However,
given the lighter breeze, fire weather concerns should remain
low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the east coast Friday night into
Saturday, providing fair conditions. Skies will be mostly clear
Friday night and winds will become light overnight. If temperatures
end up a couple of degrees cooler than forecast, then there would be
a chance of some frost for some areas. However, dewpoints slightly
may begin to rise during the evening and overnight, and some clouds
may begin to filer in late, which may slow down significant
radiational cooling. This will be something worth keeping and eye
on. By Saturday and Saturday night, clouds will begin to move into
the area, but a precipitation free forecast remains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong return flow develops across the area Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front, which will allow temperatures to warm well
above normal, and moisture will increase across the area as well.
Sunday will be quite gusty, with gusts well into the 20-30 mph
range. The cold front will move across the area during the evening
hours of Sunday into the early overnight hours. This will lead to an
increase in shower chances. There is very little to no instability,
so we do not expect widespread thunderstorms. However, there is
instability to our west, so it would not be surprising if a few
rumbles of thunder continue into our area. Even without
thunderstorms, there is a chance for gusty winds with any showers.
This could be one of the low CAPE/high shear situations where we
have a narrow squall line showing up on radar with no lightning or
thunder associated with it, but strong winds still occur.

The front moves offshore early Monday, before high pressure briefly
noses its way from the south into the Mid Atlantic Monday night.
There could be some wrap around showers Monday across the area
depending on how close to the area an area of low pressure develops
on the front to our north. Any shower activity will move out of the
area by Monday night.

On Tuesday, another strong return flow set up is expected with winds
gusting in the 20-30 mph range again, before a cold front moves
across the area Tuesday evening and overnight. There is a chance of
showers with this front, although they will be more likely to our
north as an area of low pressure develops along the front to our
north.

As the low strengthens to our north Wednesday, strong northwest
winds will develop across the area, with gusts reaching 20-35 mph.
There may also be some showers within the northwest flow develop
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. Gusts diminish between 02z-05z to a more
sustained northwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Friday...VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt
possible through the early afternoon, diminishing after 19z-20z.
High confidence.

Friday Night...VFR. Northwest winds around 5 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night...VFR conditions expected.

Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Gusty southerly winds 20-25 knots.

Sunday night...Showers likely, which may temporally lead to sub-
advisory conditions.

Monday-Monday night...Generally VFR; chance of showers early Monday.
Gusty west winds 15-25 knots.

Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Gusty southwest winds 15-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect for all marine zones through tonight.
North-northwest winds 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts and
seas 5-7 feet. Fair weather outside of SCA conditions.

SCA conditions gradually subside on Friday as winds and seas
begin to decrease. Conditions subside first on the Delaware Bay
and the Atlantic Ocean waters north of Manasquan Inlet,
lingering longest for the coastal waters south of Manasquan
Inlet. Fair weather outside of SCA conditions.

Outlook...

Friday night-Saturday night...Winds and waves expected to remain
below advisory levels.

Sunday-Monday...Winds and waves expected to reach and exceed Small
Craft Advisory levels.

Monday night-Tuesday...Winds and waves will be near advisory levels,
but may remain just below.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...Robertson
LONG TERM...Robertson
AVIATION...AKL/Hoeflich/Robertson
MARINE...AKL/Robertson