878
FXUS61 KPHI 010637
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
137 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Some areas of frost this morning and again tonight.
Otherwise, generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail
through the middle portion of next week.

2. Rain is expected to return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some areas of frost this morning again tonight.
Otherwise, generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail
through the middle portion of next week.

High pressure will remain in place within the vicinity of our area
through the middle of next week with continuing mild and dry
conditions.

A Frost Advisory remains in effect for portions of SE PA
(excluding Philly and Delco) into southern NJ where the growing
season remains active through 8 AM. Lows in these areas will be
generally in the mid 30s. North of these areas generally expect
lows getting down into the low 30s while Delmarva and the urban
corridor from around Wilmington through Philly will generally
see lows in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

For the remainder of today, we`ll have a bit more in the way of
some high cloudiness around, but the winds will remain light
and temperatures will moderate a few degrees compared to
Saturday. Afternoon highs are forecast to be mostly in the low
to mid 60s.

For tonight, low temperatures will be similar to this morning`s
lows, except a few degrees higher along and north of I-78. The
current forecast is for low to mid 30s across interior PA and NJ
areas, and upper 30s to mid 40s for the urban corridor,
Delmarva, and coastal areas. So we anticipate some areas of
frost developing again tonight, mainly for our PA and NJ areas
outside of the urban corridor and immediate coast. Another Frost
Advisory will be considered once the current one expires.

Scattered to broken high cloud cover will persist into next week
despite surface high pressure. Temperatures are expected to increase
back to above normal values early next week, with highs in the mid
60s to low 70s and milder overnights (no frost/freeze potential).
Dry weather is expected to persist through the day Wednesday,
when highs will reach well above normal into the low to mid
70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain is expected to return late next week.

The stretch of dry weather is expected to come to an end late next
week. It appears increasingly likely that a period or periods of
rainfall will move into the area as a storm system affects the
region Thursday through at least Friday. Early in the week, a cold
front will be moving across the central part of the country. The
parent low moves across the Great Lakes and into Canada later in the
week, while a secondary low develops and moves into the southern
states by mid week. This low is expected to strengthen as it moves
into the Mid Atlantic and northeast states later in the week,
bringing our area a likely window to end our dry streak.

Forecast details remain uncertain since this is still several
days away, but at this point the best chances for rain appear
to be late day Thursday into the day Friday. At this time, this
appears it will be a beneficial rainfall event with no
significant weather hazards anticipated, but it will have to be
watched closely as there is potential for amounts to be on the
heavier side depending on how much Atlantic moisture is pulled
into the system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR. North winds less than 5 kts to calm. High
confidence.

Today...VFR. North to northeast winds 5 kts or less early from
I-95 southeast. Winds will become light and variable to calm
midday, then settle out of the southeast 5 kts or less after 18Z
along and northwest of I-95 (variable near the coast). High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds less than 5 kts favoring a southwest
direction. Winds may become calm at times. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Thursday...Next chance for rain arrives with the potential for
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards through tonight. Northerly winds 5-10 kts this
morning diminishing to 5 kts or less into tonight. Seas 1-3
feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...No marine hazards expected. Fair
weather.

Thursday...Winds and seas may build close to advisory levels,
along with a chance of rain.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for PAZ102-104-106.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NJZ016>018-021-
     023.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann
AVIATION...Staarmann
MARINE...Staarmann