443
FXUS61 KPHI 290823
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
423 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch has been cancelled for all areas.

Risk for flash flooding today across the northern part of the
area has decreased and concerns are minimal as guidance has
trended drier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Unsettled today and tomorrow, mainly for the northern half
of the region, but severe weather and flash flooding is not
expected.

2. Brief period of quiet weather to end the week and for the
first half of the weekend before another system comes in on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled today and tomorrow, mainly for the
northern half of the region, but severe weather and flash
flooding is not expected.

A surface low is currently off the New Jersey coast and lifting
toward Long Island. The surface low will slowly move northward
as the day goes on, with our region on the backside of the low.
An upper level low will be positioned over New England, with our
area being under cyclonic flow aloft. As a shortwave rotates
through and with some wrap-around moisture in place, some
showers and thunderstorms could develop this afternoon, mainly
north of I-78. Not much instability or shear to work with, and
guidance has really cut back in coverage of
showers/thunderstorms compared to a day ago, so not much is
expected in terms of impacts. In fact, the Flood Watch
originally posted through most of the day was cancelled early.

A few showers could linger into the night, with another round
potentially developing on Thursday, again mainly for the Poconos
and North Jersey. This should be the final round before the
upper level low and associated surface low move out.

Areas from Philadelphia on south should actually stay dry but
cannot rule out an isolated shower over SE PA or South Jersey
today.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Brief period of quiet weather to end the week
and for the first half of the weekend before another system
comes in on Sunday.

High pressure begins to take over on Thursday Night and will
remain in place through Saturday Night. Seasonable temperatures
are expected and it should be an overall nice stretch of days.

A frontal system will move in on Sunday and Monday, as we
transition back to an unsettled pattern to start August. Still
too early to discern what specific impacts will be but this
period bears some watching. Details will be ironed out in
subsequent forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight (through 12z)...Conditions have dropped to
MVFR/IFR/LIFR across the region with low stratus developing.
Some fog has also developed at the Lehigh Valley terminals, but
fog should mainly stay over that area. Lower CIGs will continue
through the rest of the night. Winds out of the west/northwest
around 5 kt. Moderate confidence.

Today...IFR CIGs should lift not long after daybreak but MVFR
CIGs linger through the morning before lifting to VFR between
15z-17z. Model guidance has lowered the chance for
precipitation and restrictions as well, so removed VCSH from the
TAFs with the exception of KABE. Winds out of the northwest
around 10 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt for the afternoon and early
evening. Moderate confidence.

Tonight....VFR. Northwest winds around 5 to 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...Primarily VFR, though cannot rule out some showers
and isolated thunderstorms around KABE/KTTN.

Thursday Night through Saturday Night...VFR. No significant
weather.

Sunday...Primarily VFR though afternoon showers and
thunderstorms could result in some restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all ocean zones through
6 AM as winds have declined but seas remain near 5 feet. No
headlines on Delaware Bay.

For today and tonight, sub-SCA conditions are expected with
northwest winds around 10 to 20 kt and seas of 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

For today and Thursday, winds turn more offshore around 10 to 15 MPH.
Breaking waves will also decrease to around 2 feet or less.
While the Full Moon is today, decreasing wave heights, more
offshore flow, and no wave period longer than 8 seconds should
limit the rip current threat. As a result, elected for a LOW
risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich
MARINE...Hoeflich