390
FXUS61 KPHI 052310
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
710 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for 00Z TAF issuance.

A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Atlantic, Cape May, and
Cumberland County in New Jersey and for Kent and Sussex County
in Delaware. Minor tidal flooding is expected with tomorrow
afternoon`s high tide.

Updated rip current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected for the rest
of the weekend. A few showers possible tonight however.

2. Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with Sunday afternoon`s high
tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches,
and Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in
effect from 3 PM to 9 PM Sunday.

3. A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing the potential
for another round of showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry and comfortable weather is expected
for the rest of the weekend. A few showers possible tonight however.

A drier and cooler airmass has arrived across the northern
Middle Atlantic region as high pressure to the northwest begins
influencing our weather to a greater degree. Low pressure aloft
across the the Northern Atlantic continues to bring Northwest
flow aloft over our area. A couple embedded short waves in this
flow will pass across New England and our coastal waters later
today and tonight. The activity will drift further south across
Delmarva Sunday morning. We could see some scattered showers as
a result. Pops are generally in the 20% to 35% range, so no
significant impacts are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding is anticipated with Sunday
afternoon`s high tide, mainly for the southern Jersey Shore,
Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities. A Coastal Flood
Advisory is now in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM Sunday.

Flow will turn more onshore through Monday. This will result in
water piling up over consecutive tide cycles, leading to minor
tidal flooding across portions of our area on Sunday afternoon.
The current forecast has minor tidal flooding from Atlantic City on
south along the Atlantic Ocean coastline and for areas within
Delaware Bay. With increasing confidence in minor tidal flooding
occurring, a new Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for tomorrow
afternoon for Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland County in NJ
and Kent and Sussex County in Delaware.

Within the tidal Delaware River, northern NJ coast, and Chesapeake
Bay, tidal flooding will be limited to spotty minor or no flooding
at all. Tide levels should decrease getting into next week as flow
turns more offshore.


KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will pass through on Thursday bringing
the potential for another round of showers and storms.

By Tuesday, high pressure will begin to shift offshore welcoming the
return of southerly flow, resulting in a period of above-normal
temperatures and an increase in humidity levels through mid-week.
High pressure looks like it will largely remain in control
through Wednesday, before giving way to a cold front that will
approach the area on Thursday. This front will be the next
opportunity for any showers or thunderstorms around the area.
However, moisture with the front could end up being limited so
at this point POPs are only around 20-30% or less.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. North to northeast winds generally 5 kts or
less. High confidence.

Sunday...Primarily VFR. SCT clouds around 4 kft AGL could
become BKN at times. Northeast winds 5-10 kts, trending towards
southeast beginning late afternoon. A few light showers can`t be
ruled out, primarily at MIV and ACY. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory
conditions through Sunday. Fair then scattered showers tonight
and Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected.
Northeast winds may briefly get gusty later on Sunday, but should
remain below SCA criteria. Seas will generally range around 2-4
feet.

Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions probable due to
wind gusts around 25-30 kt with seas around 4-6 feet. Conditions
will peak late Wednesday into Wednesday night, before gradually
diminishing on Thursday.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday, while winds will be onshore with a northeast wind,
breaking waves should remain low (2 feet or less) and winds 10
to 15 MPH or lower. An 8 second wave period will also limit the
rip current risk. As a result, elected for a LOW Risk at all
beaches.

For Labor Day, winds will generally be out of the east, but
rather light - around 10 MPH or less. Breaking waves remain
around 2 feet or lower with an 8 second period. This will
result in another LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for
     NJZ021>025.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for
     DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AKL/DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara
AVIATION...AKL/Cooper/DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Hoeflich/OHara