745
FXUS61 KPHI 032210
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
610 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure initially centered over the Mid-Atlantic will
remain in place through the weekend, gradually shifting east
into early next week. A strong cold front will move through the
region on Wednesday. High pressure will return Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad area of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic continues
to dominate the near-term forecast, bringing mostly clear skies
and dry conditions.

Tonight, high pressure gradually slips south of the region,
bringing a light southwesterly flow across the region. Winds
will not be terribly significant, but temperatures tonight won`t
be as cool as the previous nights thanks to dew points creeping
up. Lows tonight only expected to cool into the upper 40s to
low 50s.

For Saturday, warmer weather as high pressure slips further
south, bringing a warmer and slightly more humid airmass.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s in the
afternoon (around 5-10 degrees above climo for early October)
under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the eastern tier
of the US. At the surface, high pressure will initially be
centered just off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts, and
will gradually shift eastward with time, though it will remain
the primary driver of our weather through the weekend.

Mostly clear skies are expected Saturday night through Sunday
night with above average temperatures. Lows Saturday night and
Sunday night look to be in the low-mid 50s areawide, with high
temperatures on Sunday in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Initially, a mid-level ridge will still be located over the
eastern US. This ridge will begin to break down on Monday night
with gradual height falls and mid-level flow enhancement across
the area. This trend will continue into Tuesday. Tuesday night
into Wednesday, a shortwave tracking out of the Northern Plains
and Midwest will gradually phase with the primary trough as it
shifts southeastward into our area. As the trough shifts east of
our area Wednesday night through Friday, ridging will build
back in from the west. At the surface, high pressure located off
of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast will continue to shift
gradually eastward. A cold front will pass through the region on
Wednesday. Strong high pressure is expected to once again build
into the region from the northwest Thursday into Friday.

Monday and Tuesday look to feature partly to mostly clear skies
and above normal temperatures. Clouds will begin to increase
from west to east Tuesday afternoon as the system to the west
begins to approach. Should the system trend faster, some rain
could occur across primarily our far western zones of eastern
PA, but for now the expectation is that the daylight hours on
Tuesday should be dry.

Tuesday night, rain chances will increase from west to east.
The highest chances right now appear to be for the northern half
or so of the area, with likely (60% or greater) PoPs near and
north of I- 78. PoPs will generally range from 30-50% elsewhere.
The greatest chance for rain will exist on Wednesday as the
cold front approaches, with chance to likely PoPs areawide. As
of right now it does not appear that severe weather will be a
concern, but some modest elevated instability is indicated in
model guidance so thunder is possible. Guidance has been
relatively inconsistent with QPF output, which isn`t atypical at
this range, but the progressive nature of the system combined
with the lack of a strong signal for deep convection suggest
this should mainly provide rainfall of the beneficial variety.
Rain will end with the passage of the cold front.

Temperatures Wednesday will likely be close to normal ahead of
the cold front, and below normal behind it. Below normal
temperatures are expected areawide Thursday and Friday, with
temperatures mainly in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR winds winds generally
becoming SW around 5 mph (except S/SE at KACY). High confidence.

Tonight through Saturday...Continuing VFR with SW winds around
5 mph. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Period of sub-VFR conditions
are possible in scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expired at 6 PM, as
seas continue to fall below 5 feet. No marine hazards are
expected through Saturday. S to SW winds around 10 kts withs
seas 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday night...No marine headlines are
anticipated. Winds look to remain below 25 kt with seas
remaining below 5 feet.

Tuesday through Wednesday...A period of SCA conditions is
possible with strengthening southerly wind ahead of an
approaching cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night. SCA
conditions are also possible on Wednesday behind the cold front.
Winds may approach 25 kt. Seas 3-5 feet.

Rip Currents...

A high risk of rip currents is likely to continue through the
end of the week. However, the surf program ended on Tuesday,
September 30. No further surf forecasts or rip current
statements will be issued until May 2026.

Always obey posted Beach Flags. If you enter the surf zone,
always have a floatation device with you and swim near a
lifeguard if possible. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float and do not swim against the current. If able, swim
parallel to the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore
and call or wave for help.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/MJL
MARINE...Cooper/MJL/Staarmann