745
FXUS61 KPHI 030735
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Key Messages with only minor adjustments for Messages 2
and 3. Slightly less QPF for Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Fair most areas today with more seasonable conditions.

2. Showers are expected to impact portions of the region Sunday
and Sunday night, followed by much cooler temperatures during
the first half of next week.

3. Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler temperatures
during the first half of next week, including some potential for
frost near and north of I-78 Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Fair most areas today with more seasonable conditions.

Now that the cold front has crossed the region, cooler and drier
air is arriving from the North/Northwest. There are still some
pre-dawn showers across the Delaware Valley and Delmarva. These
will linger into the morning, especially the Delmarva activity,
then diminish towards the late afternoon. There is some
uncertainty with regards to if/when the showers will end across
southern/eastern Delaware today.

High pressure will build into the region from the north during Saturday.
Mainly cloudy skies along and southeast of I-95 early will given
way to clearing skies by afternoon for most of the area. Mostly
cloudy skies will likely remain the theme all day across Delmarva
and extreme southern New Jersey though, where the showers may linger
into the early afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers are expected to impact portions of the
region Sunday and Sunday night.

Low pressure developing along the stalled frontal boundary to
our south Sunday and Sunday night will provide another round of
showers across portions of the region. The timing of the showers
will be focused during the afternoon hours Sunday, but could
begin near/south of Philly in the morning and linger area wide
into the evening or overnight hours. PoPs have increased some,
and now range from around 40-50% along and north of I-80 to
around 60-80% within the I-95 corridor and Philly metro, to
70-90% across Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. The latest
QPF forecast ranges from around 0.10" in the far north, to about
0.25" within the I-95 corridor and Philly metro, to 0.50-1"
across Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. It`s possible the
showers don`t make it much farther northwest than the I-95
corridor. There still remains spread in the guidance as to
exactly how far inland the showers will make it.

Given overcast skies, easterly winds, and showers, temperatures
Sunday will be cooler with highs likely only reaching the low to
mid 60s in many areas.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler
temperatures during the first half of next week, including some
potential for frost near and north of I-78 Tuesday night.

Canadian high pressure and a much cooler air mass will then
build into the region starting Monday into Tuesday. Monday will
remain mild with highs within a few degrees of 70, though a
northwest breeze will make it feel cooler. Some lingering clouds
early should give way to mostly sunny skies later in the day.
Lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s Monday night.

High temperatures Tuesday are only in the low 60s for much of
the region, which is upwards of 10 degrees below normal. Tuesday
will feature clear and sunny skies though. Some areas of frost
are possible by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially
north of I-78. Forecast lows are in the mid 30s north of I-78,
and in the low to mid 40s elsewhere.

As cold advection wanes by midweek, the air mass will begin to
modify and trend notably warmer by Thursday and into Friday.
Highs will trend closer to normal near 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions expected. Showers lingering at KMIV/KACY
through early afternoon, otherwise dry. Cannot completely rule
out some brief MVFR conditions with this activity early. North
winds early shifting northeast and then more east in the afternoon
around 10 kt some gusts 15-20 kts at times. Moderate- high confidence
overall.

Tonight...VFR but patchy rural fog possible.

Outlook...

Sunday...Widespread MVFR with IFR possible for Delaware Valley
and S/E. Frequent showers Delmarva and south NJ. For N/W areas
more VFR CIGS with some MVFR in scattered showers.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR. Gusty winds possible Monday.
Fair weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through tonight. High pressure builds
in with North to Northeast winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts around
20-22 kts at times. Winds turn East tonight at 10 to 15 knots
with 20 knots gusts. Some showers for south NJ/Delaware waters
early today then diminishing by late afternoon. Fair other
areas.

Outlook...

Sunday...SCA conditions possible from dawn into the early afternoon.
Low pressure will move along a stalled front and bring showers
across the waters at times. Easterly winds increasing to near
15-20 kts by dawn Sunday, with some gusts up to 25 kts possible.
No SCA attm, but possible issuance later today.

Sunday night into next week. High pressure builds across the
waters with Fair weather expected. While winds and seas remain
below advisory levels much of the time, some 4 ft seas and
Gusts around 25 kts are possible late Monday and into Tuesday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI