505
FXUS61 KPHI 122329
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
729 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A round of showers and thunderstorms overnight then
improving conditions for Thursday.

2. Mostly quiet with seasonable temperatures in the extended
though with some rain chances, mainly on Friday and late Sunday
into Monday.

3. There is the potential for minor tidal flooding during the
evening high tides this week along the Atlantic coast, Delaware
Bay, and tidal Delaware River, especially with this evening`s
high tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A round of showers and thunderstorms overnight
then improving conditions for Thursday.

Weak high pressure is across the area as of the early afternoon
today, but this will weaken this evening. Shortwave energy
across the Great Lakes aided by an upper jet stream will cause a
disturbance to arrive from the northwest overnight. You can
already see the beginnings of this presently as showers/tstms
are developing across western NY. We have likely and categorical
POPS for showers and tstms overnight. While severe weather is
not expected, gusty winds and downpours will occur. The activity
will diminish from NW to SE around dawn. Rainfall will generally
be around one-quarter to one-half of an inch in many areas but
a few spots may end up with totals closer to an inch. On
Thursday, drier air will arrive and sunny skies are expected
much of Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mostly quiet with seasonable temperatures in the
extended though with some rain chances, mainly on Friday and late
Sunday into Monday.

An upper level ridge will anchor itself over the southeast US
through the weekend. Our area will be on the northern periphery of
the ridge, with a modest west/northwest flow. This will result in
seasonable temperatures through the weekend and into next week with
highs generally in the 80s.

A few shortwaves will impinge on the ridge, driving multiple rounds
of low pressure through our area. This will result in a few chances
for showers and thunderstorms, first on Friday, mainly for the
southern half of the area. More widespread rain looks to come Sunday
Night into Monday, which could also include a few thunderstorms.
However, the risk for impactful and significant weather
(severe/flash flooding) appears low at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is the potential for minor tidal flooding
during the evening high tides this week along the Atlantic coast,
Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River, especially with this
evening`s high tide.

The New Moon is today and as a result astronomical tides for this
evening`s high tide cycle will be near or over minor flooding
thresholds for many places along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey
and Delware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. A Coastal
Flood Advisory for this evening remains in effect for all areas
along the Delaware Bay as well as along the Atlantic coast from Cape
May County Southward. The highest astronomical tides will occur this
evening but the threat of minor tidal flooding may linger through
Thursday or Friday as well.

Tidal flooding is not currently forecast for the Eastern Shore of
the Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR initially. There is the potential for SHRA/TSRA
through the night, but confidence is low on whether SHRA/TSRA
will develop and if they will pass over a given terminal. MVFR
or lower conds would be possible in convection. Kept PROB30
groups for convection potential. CIGs will otherwise lower to
MVFR late. W-SW winds around 5 kt, becoming LGT/VRB late.

Thursday...Any MVFR CIGs will lift to VFR by 15Z, then VFR. W-NW
winds increasing to around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Friday...Primarily VFR though restrictions
possible (30-40%) with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
moving through

Friday Night through Sunday Morning...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%)
at times with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
No prevailing marine hazards expected tonight or Thursday.
Showers and TSTMs are expected later tonight and into Thursday
morning. Higher winds and seas in TSTMs.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday Night through Monday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as
seas near 5 feet and southerly wind gusts near 25 kt.

Rip Currents...

Rest of today...Southeasterly winds 10 to 15 mph by the late
afternoon. Breaking wave heights will remain around 2 feet or
less with a southerly 1 foot swell around 5 to 7 seconds. With
little changes in overall conditions, will continue with a LOW
risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For Thursday...A southwesterly wind around 5 to 10 mph.
Breaking wave heights will remain around 2 feet or less with a
southeasterly 1 foot swell around 6 to 8 seconds. Due to these
conditions there is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at
all beaches.

For Friday...the winds will shift to onshore but generally
remain around 10 mph or less with breaking wave heights 2 feet
or less. So we will continue with a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at
all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ021-023-
     024.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hoeflich/MJL/OHara
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL/MPS/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/MJL/OHara