406
FXUS61 KPHI 040042
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
842 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to now include all of
the Atlantic coastal waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers are expected to impact portions of the region Sunday
and Sunday night.

2. Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler temperatures and
dry weather through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are expected to impact portions of the
region Sunday and Sunday night.

Low pressure developing along the stalled frontal boundary to
our south Sunday and Sunday night will provide another round of
showers across portions of the region. The timing of the showers
will be focused during the afternoon hours Sunday, but could
begin near/south of Philly in the morning and linger area wide
into the evening or overnight hours. PoPs have retreated
slightly and now range from around 40-50% along and north of
I-80 to around 50-60% within the I-95 corridor and Philly metro,
to 60-70% across Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. The
latest QPF forecast has around 0.10" or less along the I-95
corridor and points north and west with around 0.25-0.75"
across the southern Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. It`s
possible the showers don`t make it much farther northwest than
the I-95 corridor. There still remains spread in the guidance as
to exactly how far north and west the showers will make it.

Given overcast skies, easterly winds, and showers, temperatures
Sunday will be cooler with highs likely only reaching the low to
mid 60s in many areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Canadian high pressure will bring much cooler
temperatures and dry weather through much of the week.

Canadian high pressure and a much cooler air mass will build into
the region starting on Monday. Monday will feature mostly sunny
skies with highs within a few degrees of 70, though a stiff
northwest breeze will make it feel cooler. Sunny skies continue on
Tuesday, though highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid 60s for
much of the region which is upwards of 10 degrees below normal. Lows
will fall mainly into the 40s, with 50s along the coast and the
upper 30s in the Poconos. Some areas of frost will be possible
mainly north of I-78 late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

As cold advection wanes by mid-week, the airmass will begin to
modify and trend warmer as southerly flow returns. Highs remain in
the 60s on Wednesday, before warming back into the 70s again for
Thursday and Friday. With high pressure remaining in control, mostly
clear skies and dry weather is expected through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mainly VFR but patchy rural fog possible. MVFR
ceilings may arrive prior to daybreak across ILG/MIV/ACY. Winds
remain out of the ENE to east at 5-10 knots. Moderate
confidence.

Sunday...Widespread MVFR cigs during the morning with IFR or
lower cigs during the afternoon into the evening. Scattered
showers move in through the morning into the early afternoon.
Shower coverage lessens during the evening hours. Winds continue
out of the ENE to east at 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible with a slight chance of
showers and patchy fog overnight.

Monday through Thursday...VFR. Other than some gusty winds possible
on Monday, no significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to now include all of
the Atlantic coastal waters for 5 foot seas and wind gusts up to
25 kts. NE winds around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Lingering SCA conditions due to seas around 5
feet early, before abating overnight.

Monday through Monday night...No marine headlines expected, although
a few gusts up to 25 kt possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...No marine headlines anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/MJL/WFO PHI
AVIATION...DeSilva/Guzzo/MJL
MARINE...DeSilva/Guzzo/MJL