648
FXUS61 KPHI 010738
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
338 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing chances for rains on Sunday. All Key Points and
Aviation/Marine sections refreshed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures and increasing chances of showers
for the end of the week.

2. Unsettled conditions are expected for the later part of the
weekend. Chances for rain on Sunday have increased.

3. Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back bays of New
Jersey and Delaware.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures and increasing chances
of showers for the end of the week.

High pressure offshore will continue to pump milder and increasingly
more humid air across the area today and Friday. High temps will
be above normal both days with much above normal on Friday. Except
for a few morning sprinkles across the far N/W this morning, rains
are not expected today or tonight.

This will change for Friday as a cold front will pass across the
region late Friday and Friday night and will settle over Delmarva
on Saturday. Scattered showers will develop Friday afternoon,
mainly north and west of the I-95 corridor, then scattered showers
spread east Friday night. The showers taper off in most areas by
Saturday morning, but across southern Delaware and south NJ, we`ll
keep some clouds and scattered showers for Saturday as the front
becomes nearly stationary over the Mid- Atlantic. Overall, QPF
will be less than 1/10 inch but a few areas closer to 2/10ths of
an inch possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions are expected for the later
part of the weekend. Chances for rain on Sunday have increased.

High pressure then builds into the region from the north on Saturday.
Mostly sunny skies for most of the area and partly to mostly cloudy
skies across Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey with seasonable
temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. These temperatures
are near normal for early October.

After that, low pressure develops on that stalled front and
passes cross the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Sunday and Sunday
night. The overnight models continue the previous trend of
bringing higher POPs further north for Sunday. The present fcst
now has low-end likely POPS for southern Delaware and the 50%
chance line runs along the Delaware valley and up into Monmouth
County. Low chance pops are included now for the southern
Poconos and Lehigh Valley

High pressure then builds into the region for the start of the
new work week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Tidal flooding continues to recede in the back bays of New
Jersey and Delaware.

Tidal levels continue to decline and recede as offshore flow continues
to allow the back bays to drain. Some of the back bays of Barnegat
Bay, Rehoboth Bay, Jefferson Creek and Little Assawoman Bay may
see some spotty minor tidal flooding continue today, as winds turn
more shore parallel and slow the rate of drainage. However, the
bulk of the threat is over. As a result, no coastal flooding headlines
are currently in effect.

No further tidal flooding is expected elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
thru 12Z... VFR predominately. Can`t rule out as ST layer developing
with high-edn IFR or low-end MVFR CIGS, but confid in this is low,
so just included SCT group in many TAFS for now. Light variable
winds. Medium confid.

today... VFR expected. SCT-BKN high clouds mostly. SW winds 5-10
knots. Medium/high confid.

tonight... VFR continues. Mostly mid/high clouds. LLWS possible
by dawn, this will be included in the 12Z TAFS.

Outlook...
Friday... VFR early the scattered showers afternoon and evening
with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS possible. Winds shifting from SW to NW
following a FROPA during the afternoon/evening.

Saturday... Mostly VFR but some morning MVFR and showers
possible for south NJ and Delaware.

Sunday... Widespread MVFR with IFR possible S/E with frequent
showers Delmarva and south NJ. For N/W areas more VFR CIGS with
some MVFR in scattered showers.

Monday... VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...

Today/tonight... sub-SCA expected. Fair weather. Ocean seas
around 3 ft.

Friday and Friday night... More sub-SCA with scattered showers
Friday afternoon and evening. Ocean Seas 3-4 ft.

Outlook...
Generally sub-SCA thru the weekend and into next week. Two
periods where conditions may approach SCA are Saturday morning
when some gusts 20 to 25 kts are expected.Also, Monday night may
see increasing seas 4-5 ft as NW winds develop across the
waters.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...WFO PHI