092
FXUS61 KPHI 272315
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
715 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) The nor`easter will continue to spin over the forecast area
  before slowly departing on Monday.

- 2) Coastal flooding threat lowered in many areas but still a
  concern along the back bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

- 3) Dangerous rip currents and surf threats have diminished.

- 4) A cold front is likely to cross through the region Friday
  into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The nor`easter will continue to spin over the
forecast area before slowly departing on Monday.

The nor`easter is now centered just offshore the NJ and DE
coasts, with high pressure centered to the north. The low is
now undergoing cyclolysis as it begins to track slowly
northeastward.

As we move through the overnight, PoPs will be highest across
New Jersey and east-central Pennsylvania. Another round of rain
is developing offshore and will rotate in later this afternoon
and tonight. As a result, I have categorical PoPs across this
area. I have a range of PoPs elsewhere ranging from slight
chance across our southern Delmarva zones to likely across the
southern Poconos.

As both the surface high to our north and the low itself
weakens, there will be a noticeable drop off in winds overnight.
Rain chances will come to an end from southwest to northeast
during the day on Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Coastal flooding threat lowered in many areas but
still a concern along the back bays of New Jersey and Delaware.

The Nor`easter has moved onshore across New Jersey as of Sunday
afternoon. This has caused winds to remain onshore across the
northern NJ coastal areas (Monmouth and Middlesex counties) while
winds across southern NJ and Delaware have turned offshore and will
remain that way tonight and Monday. The effects of the weakening
storm and changing winds will allowed tidal departures to lower
across Cape May and Atlantic counties, so we have dropped the
Coastal Flood Warning in these areas. it appears right now that no
additional coastal flooding will occur in these areas.

Further north,the onshore flow and continued effects of the
Nor`easter will keep high tides tonight and Monday morning at Minor
flooding levels. For those areas, we have dropped the Coastal Flood
Warning and replaced it with an Advisory into Monday morning. One
exception, is Ocean County NJ, where we have kept the Coastal Flood
Warning with the effects of high water in the back bays continuing.
The warning presently goes until Monday 2 PM, but may need to be
extended. High water for back Bays across Southern Delaware are a
concern too, so a Coastal Flood Warnings for Sussex County Delaware
is in effect until Monday 2 PM.

For Delaware Bay communities, a strengthening Northwest wind will
remain across Delaware Bay into tonight. This will promote lowering
tidal departures as the waters is pushed down/out Delaware Bay. As a
result, additional flooding (at high tides) will be spotty Minor or
less. No additional flags for tidal flooding are expected.

For the tidal Delaware River, the North to Northeast flow has kept
water levels (at high tide) at the lower part of Minor flooding
range. No flags for tidal flooding are expected.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Dangerous rip currents and surf threats have
diminished.

The Nor`easter came onshore across NJ earlier today. Behind it
the winds and seas have continued to diminish. The seas have
dropped to mostly 5 to 6 ft at the buoys as of 5PM. These
conditions indicate that High Surf is no longer a threat to the
shore areas. While Rip Currents are still present, the strength
of these has diminished somewhat too. We are calling for a
MODERATE risk for Rip Currents on Monday. Continue to exercise
caution if you will be near the ocean tonight and Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 4...A cold front is likely to cross through the region
Friday into Saturday.

The surface high that will be over the region for much of the week
will start to build southeast and off shore by Thursday. This will
open the door for a cold front to sweep through the region Friday or
Saturday. Models for the most part, aren`t depicting a widespread
rain event with this front. However, southwesterly flow on Wednesday
and Thursday, should set the stage with ample moisture in place. The
biggest question is forcing with this front. The best synoptic scale
lift will likely be well removed from the mesoscale forcing
associated with the front. For now the 20 to 30 percent PoPs through
this period seem appropriate this far out. Preliminary guidance
indicates that temperatures behind the front could be 5 to 10
degrees colder than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Continued MVFR/IFR conditions in lingering SHRA and
BR. North to northeast winds slowly trending towards northwest
at around 10 kts, with a few higher gusts remaining possible.
Moderate confidence.

Monday...Lingering IFR conditions in the morning should give
way to MVFR by the afternoon, with improvement to VFR not out of
the question by late afternoon. Northwest winds around 10 kts,
decreasing to 5-10 kt during the afternoon. Moderate confidence.


Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...prevailing VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
All Gale Warnings have been allowed to expire and replaced with
a Small Craft Advisory. The advisory goes through 10 PM tonight
for the Upper Delaware Bay, 2 AM Monday for the Lower Delaware
Bay, and 8 AM Monday for all Atlantic coastal waters.

Wind gusts of 25-30 kts will remain possible, and seas are
expected to continue to exceed 5 feet. Winds and seas are
expected to slowly diminish tonight and more rapidly during the
day on Monday.

Visibility restrictions in rain and some spray will remain
possible into Monday morning.


Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria.

Rip Currents...Please see Key Message 3 above.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Monday for NJZ020-026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for NJZ012>014.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Monday for DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/Kruzdlo/SJ/PO
AVIATION...Cooper/Kruzdlo/SJ
MARINE...Cooper/Kruzdlo/SJ