921
FXUS61 KPHI 232022
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
422 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated rip current section of marine discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A much drier air mass will be in place through the end of the
week and to start the weekend.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances increase early next week with the
potential for areas of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A much drier air mass will be in place through the
end of the week and to start the weekend.

Much drier air has filtered in from the northwest today in wake
of a cold front. An upper-level trough will gradually weaken
across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon,
tonight and Friday. At the same time, surface high pressure will
build across the Northeast and down into the Mid-Atlantic
through Friday before shifting offshore of New England on
Saturday. A northerly flow will keep a much drier air mass
across our area along with cooler temperatures. The lighter low-
level flow due to high pressure in place will result in some
enhancement to the sea/bay breezes later today and again on
Friday. High temperatures will generally range in the upper 70s
to mid 80s with lows ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances increase early next
week with the potential for areas of heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms.

As a strong upper-level ridge expands into the Plains early next
week, northwesterly flow aloft will occur across much of the East.
This ridge looks to get pushed back some as a potentially strong
upper-level trough in eastern Canada sends spokes of energy
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Some guidance
has stronger shortwave energy which results in the trough closing
off across the Northeast with time during the first half of next
week. This will also drive surface low pressure and a cold front our
way around the Tuesday time frame. Some convection from upstream may
try and get into parts of our area later Sunday, however this is
less certain.

It looks like we may turn convectively active early next week,
especially Tuesday into Wednesday. While there are differences among
the model guidance on the timing and strength of the features diving
southeastward early next week, the setup would tend to favor
upstream convective development given northwesterly flow aloft. This
would be enhanced if the trough aloft closes off. Deeper moisture
advecting northward ahead of this feature with eventually colder air
aloft arriving may result in widespread showers and some
thunderstorms. While the specifics are uncertain at this time range,
some areas of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms are possible
given the overall synoptic setup that is forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. Northwest to northeast winds this afternoon
around 5-10 kt, will settle out of the east-southeast late in
the afternoon, primarily after 21Z. Moderate-high confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds may occasionally favor a southerly
direction around 5 kt early in the evening, but will generally
become light and variable overnight. High confidence.

Friday...VFR with increasing clouds. East-northeast winds around
7-12 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Times of sub-VFR conditions along with some showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Friday. East winds
this afternoon will become more northeasterly around 5-10 kt
tonight. East-northeast winds will then increase on Friday
around 10-15 kt. Seas range from 2-4 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, winds will be northeast around 15 to 20 mph with waves
in the surf zone around 2 to 3 feet. There will be multiple swell
groups including a longer period swell from the southeast at 9
seconds. Due to the onshore flow and multiple swell groups we`ll
continue with a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at all NJ and DE beaches.

For Saturday, the conditions will not be too different than Friday.
Winds should back just slightly but remain out of northeast around
15 to 20  mph. Breaking waves will be once again around 2 to 3 feet
with multiple swell groups. For these reasons, we`ll continue with a
MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at
all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Gorse
AVIATION...DeSilva/Gorse
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Gorse