022
FXUS61 KPHI 130915
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
515 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will continue to affect the region through
today, bringing significant impacts to the coastal areas.
Improving conditions expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens
and moves out to sea. High pressure will begin building back
into the region during the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The more expansive rain shield has continued to move westward
across our area. There continues to be low-level moistening for
areas west of I-95 with showers and drizzle for these areas. A
robust easterly low-level jet at 850 mb has continued to lift
northward across our far eastern areas and especially the marine
zones. The KDIX radar velocity data shows an area of 55-60
knots of wind around 3500 feet AGL just offshore of Monmouth
county. This will enhance some lift through this morning, and as
a result areas of rain are anticipated to continue to expand
farther west through this morning. The main impacts will
continue to be felt across our coastal communities due to
onshore winds and significant/severe coastal flooding. Wind
gusts along the coast have been as high as 50-60 mph with a few
over 60 mph so far.

Our wind headlines have changed with the most recent update. A
High Wind Warning is still in place for the immediate coastline
of Monmouth and Ocean Counties through 8 AM today. For the rest
of the coastline, the High Wind Warning has been allowed to be
cancelled. There is still a Wind Advisory for Monmouth, Ocean,
and southeastern Burlington County through the same time. The
rest of the Wind Advisory was allowed to be cancelled.

For the rainfall associated with this system, we have already
seen amounts of 0.50-1.50 inches with localized higher amounts
along the coast. Outside of the coastal areas, totals drop off
quickly, especially closer to I-95 and west of I-95. Additional
rainfall looks to be around 0.25-0.50 outside of the coastal
areas with this falling mainly through today. Our coastal areas
from Atlantic County northward to Monmouth County could pick up
an additional 1-2 inches, especially with the enhancement from
the robust low-level jet located in this area currently. By
tonight, we trend drier with some showers lingering.

The main concern with this system continues to be the coastal
flooding (see coastal flooding section below). The winds will
continue to be on the stronger side through daybreak which is
why some of the headlines were briefly extended. During the day
today, it will still be breezy with gusts inland near 30 MPH at
times and near 40 MPH at the immediate coast.

Our temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
There won`t be much of a drop overnight with temperatures mainly
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal low will slowly move east into the ocean and weaken
Tuesday, with chance of rain gradually ending and potentially
some breaks of sun returning, but gusty winds will linger much
of the day, especially near the coast. Highs rebound well into
the 60s for most.

Clouds gradually continue diminishing on Tuesday night as the
low continues heading out to sea. Wind should stay elevated so
not much risk of fog. Lows mostly in the low to mid 50s.

Wednesday looks relatively sunny even as a cold front pushes
southward across the region, resulting in an increase in the
northwesterly winds. Highs should also be elevated, well into
the 60s with some spots cracking 70.

Cold advection takes strong hold behind the front Wednesday
night under mostly clear skies. Lows mostly in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian high pressure dominates Thursday and Friday, with
sunny to partly cloudy skies. This may be the coldest air mass
of the season thus far, with many locales struggling to reach 60
during Thursday, and only a little milder on Friday. With much
of our northern zones now out of the growing season due to last
week`s freeze, the question of frost/freeze headlines is murky,
as areas which haven`t frozen yet may still have enough of a
breeze Thursday night to keep them from freezing, despite the
chilly air mass in place. Lows Thursday night will be in the 30s
for much of the region, except 40s in the warmest spots, while
staying a few degrees warmer Friday night.

Warm front slips across the region as high pressure presses
east of the region Saturday, with temps warming back closer to
70 during the day despite a bit of an increase in mainly high
cloud cover. Next frontal system then approaches Saturday night
and Sunday, with more clouds and an increasing risk of showers.
Enough warm advection should occur to hold many areas at 50 or
higher Saturday night, and push temps into the low-mid 70s for
most on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight...MVFR ceilings to eventually IFR. Some rounds
of rain/drizzle will result in visibility restrictions at times.
Northeasterly winds 15-25 knots with gusts around 25-30 knots
(to occasionally 40 knots mainly at KACY). Low confidence.

Monday...MVFR/IFR ceilings. Areas of rain will result in
MVFR/IFR visibilities at times. North-northeast winds 15-20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots, which may diminish some in the
afternoon especially south and east of KPHL. Low confidence.

Monday night...IFR or even potentially lower ceilings.
Visibility restrictions still possible with mist/drizzle at the
terminals. Lingering showers still remain for KACY. A NE wind
persists at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Low
confidence.

Outlook... Slow improvement towards VFR Tuesday, then remaining
VFR rest of this week.

&&

.MARINE...
A Storm Warning is in effect for the northern two Atlantic
coastal water zones until noon today. The remainder of the Storm
Warning has been cancelled and a Gale Warning is now in place
through 6PM Tuesday. There looks to be a break in the gale force
winds later today but they are forecast to return late tonight
into Tuesday. Our Gale Warning for the upper Delaware Bay has
remained in effect through 8PM today. Seas are 12-16 feet today
and 10 to 12 feet overnight.

Outlook... Gale conditions will continue on the ocean waters
Tuesday as the low pulls out to sea and away from the region,
with SCA on Delaware Bay. Should drop back mostly to Small Craft
Advisory conditions by Tuesday night for the ocean waters and
potentially sub-SCA on the bay, but then probably level off at
this condition (at least SCA on the ocean waters) through
Thursday. Should mostly drop below SCA conditions on the ocean
waters Friday wind- wise, but seas may yet remain elevated to
SCA levels.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
5 AM Update: The Coastal Flood Forecasts were updated for all
gauges. No significant changes were made to the forecast for the
next and final significantly impacted high tide cycle. Some
minor changes were made based on the latest guidance and trend
in gauge observations. Perhaps most notably was to lower Cape
May, Lewes, and Bowers Beach to high end Moderate flood stage.
This was done since winds have shifted north to north-
northwesterly near lower Delaware Bay and the Delaware Bay
mouth. This will be less supportive of Major flood impacts being
reached in this area, however cannot rule out a couple gauges
flirting with Major flood stage near high tide.

Reedy Point was lowered to just touch Moderate flood stage. The
much more northerly component of the wind will result in a lower
likelihood of Moderate flood stage being reached there.

The back bays of Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May Counties are most
likely to experience Major flood impacts, as the N-NNW winds
will not allow surge to drain quickly out of the bays as is the
case with Delaware Bay.

Our forecast for Perth Amboy remains just 0.1 of a foot shy of
Major flood stage. It`s still possible that a gauge or two along
Raritan Bay reaches Major flood stage, but this will depend on
how the surface low evolves into Monday. A stronger, more
persistent easterly wind would result in more significant
impacts than the current official forecast suggests.


Moderate to major coastal flooding impacts have already
occurred along the Atlantic coasts of NJ and DE, and will
continue around the times of high tide through today as a
coastal storm impacts the region. Guidance still varies in the
solutions regarding the severity of coastal flood impacts
locally, as this will ultimately be dependent on the exact track
and strength of the coastal surface low. However, we remain
very concerned about significant impacts from this storm along
our coasts, and continue to monitor the latest trends in
observations and guidance closely.

The greatest threat of impacts are still anticipated to occur
along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, and
Delaware Bay. While the forecast may change and waffle between
Moderate or Major, the actual flood stage and tide level will
not change much. Regardless of what level the tides hit, an
impactful event is expected to continue for multiple high tide
cycles. Residents should heed advice and any evacuation orders
from local officials and emergency managers throughout this
event. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect through this
evening for the entire Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay.

Widespread minor tidal flooding is expected on the tidal
Delaware River with this evening`s high tide, where a Coastal
Flood Advisory remains in effect.

Severe beach erosion and dune breaching are possible along the
entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due to the very
high/dangerous surf conditions through today.

No tidal flooding is expected for our eastern shore counties
along Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-
     071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ013-020-027.
     High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ014-026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ431-452>455.
     Storm Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich/Staarmann