698
FXUS61 KPHI 051817
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
217 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday. A cold front comes
through on Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control and continues to gradually
drift offshore.

Tonight, a clear night with calm winds, but dew points will be
largely in the low to mid 50s again, keeping overnight lows around
the same range and resulting in a cool, but slightly humid night.
Some patchy fog is possible yet again, especially across sheltered
areas in the Pine Barrens and valleys.

For Monday, not much of a change from Sunday with mostly sunny skies
and warm afternoon temperatures. Highs are expected to be in the low
80s once again with dew points creeping up into the mid/upper 50s.
Winds will be light, around 5-10 mph out of the SSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure slides offshore on Monday Night, with light
southerly return flow remaining. This will keep temperatures on
the more mild side with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Cannot
rule out some fog here and there, but incoming cloud cover and a
light southerly wind should prevent widespread fog from
developing.

Cloud cover increases Tuesday ahead of a cold front that is expected
to bring rain Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Warm-air advection
strengthens as the front approaches, allowing temperatures to get
into the upper 70s/low 80s. Guidance continues to have the bulk of
the precipitation coming in later, so nearly everyone should have a
dry Tuesday.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday will feature a cold front approaching
and moving through, bringing some much needed rain to the area. Most
of the rain will fall during the Wednesday morning hours, with just
some lingering showers near the coast in the afternoon. Cannot rule
out a rumble of thunder as model soundings show some elevated
instability, but the severe and flash flooding threat remains very
low. Current forecast has a widespread rain nearing an inch for
nearly the entire area. Some areas likely will fall short, while
some overperform. As this event gets closer, those details will
become more ironed out. Temperatures on Wednesday hover around
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Canadian high pressure moves in on Wednesday night, remaining in
control through the end of the week. Cold-air advection sets up in
the wake of the departing front, resulting in seasonably cool
temperatures both Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the
low to mid 60s. Overnight lows dip down into the upper 30s/low to
mid 50s Wednesday Night and Thursday Night. With clear skies and
light winds expected on Thursday Night, some areas, mainly from I-78
on north, could drop into the mid 30s. Would not be surprised to see
the first Frost headlines of the season for northern New Jersey and
southern Poconos by the end of the week.

The weekend forecast looks more uncertain. Some guidance continues
to develop a system to our south, with high pressure to the north
and east. These two features will determine what happens this week.
If the high ends up closer, this would suppress any system to the
south, keeping us dry and warmer. If the high ends up further north,
this would allow for any system off to the south to get closer to
our area. Stuck with the NBM which has around a 20% chance of
showers both days, which shows the potential for showers, but not a
high degree of confidence or certainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR with a south to southwesterly wind
around 5 knots or less. High confidence.

Sunday Night...Primarily VFR though patchy fog is possible again at
mainly KMIV/KACY with lower potential of patchy fog at other
terminals. Moderate confidence on prevailing VFR with lower
confidence on any visibility restrictions due to fog.

Monday...VFR with a south to southwesterly wind around 5 knots or
less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with
periods of rain and low clouds coming through.

Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through Monday. S to SW winds around 5-10
kts withs seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Monday Night...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Wind gusts on the ocean could get near
25 kt at times, resulting in potential SCA conditions

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions expected with a
low chance of gales (15-20%). North/northwest wind gusts nearing 30
kt with seas 5 to 7 feet.

Thursday Night...SCA conditions diminishing as winds and seas
decline but some lingering 5 foot seas cannot be ruled out.

Friday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL