220
FXUS61 KPHI 031112
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
612 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak coastal low will slide to the south and east today with
a cold front affecting the area late this evening. High pressure
returns through the middle of the week as the next cold front
moves through Wednesday evening. High pressure returns for a
short stint through the end of the week with a stronger system
anticipated to impact the region over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Seasonably cool and insignificant weather is expected through
Tuesday. Some light rain will impact areas mainly southeast of
I-95 through midday, then a cold front will sweep through this
evening with dry and breezy conditions expected tonight through
Tuesday.

A trough axis will approach and pass across the region during
the day, then move out to sea into tonight with subsidence and
strong quasi zonal flow remaining in place through Tuesday in
its wake. At the surface, a developing coastal low to our south
early today will push out to sea through tonight. High pressure
will build to our southwest tonight into Tuesday, resulting in a
WNW gradient locally.

Clouds will continue increasing in coverage and lowering
through this morning across the area, and a mostly cloudy day is
forecast. Some light rain associated with the developing
coastal low to our south will continue pushing slowly northward
along the coastal plain through the morning before diminishing
in intensity and shifting offshore into the afternoon. Guidance
continues to indicate a low chance of some additional showers
developing a bit farther inland near the I-95 corridor around
midday. This activity, if it develops, would be associated more
with the northern stream trough rather than the coastal low to
our south. Moisture will be quite limited in this region, so any
showers that do develop would probably just be sprinkles to
perhaps a couple hundredths of an inch of rainfall at most.
Closer to the southern NJ and Delmarva coast, rainfall amounts
could reach into the 0.10-0.20" range.

Highs today will be mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds
mainly south to southwesterly around 5-10 mph (more variable in
direction for Delmarva).

A cold front will sweep through the region and offshore this
evening between about 5-8 PM. Winds will shift abruptly to the
WNW and increase to around 10-20 mph during FROPA and in the
wake of the front. Some brief gusts near 30-35 mph cannot be
ruled out with FROPA, but the cold advection isn`t overly
impressive. So boundary layer mixing of wind gusts should not be
too efficient. The post frontal airmass isn`t particularly
cold, but will be a bit drier with dewpoints falling quickly
into the 30s in its wake. Temperatures will gradually fall into
the low to mid 40s across the area by Tuesday morning.

We`ll remain in a post frontal regime on Tuesday under sunny
skies. Low level wind fields will be diminishing some, but WNW
winds should remain around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
possible at times. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet sensible weather will be the theme through the Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Largely southerly flow will lead to light
warm air advection and temps warming warming into the mid 60s.
High pressure at the surface will weaken as the flow aloft
remains fairly zonal persists through the day.

Heading into Wednesday evening, a mid level trough develops
over the Great Lakes and starts to take on a sort of clipper
track quickly pushing through the north east dragging a cold
front towards the Mid Atlantic. This could bring some light rain
towards the Poconos Wednesday evening. No wintry precip is
expected.

Weak ridging builds in on Thursday representing the calm before
the pattern starts becoming more active towards the end of the
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Friday the general pattern will be that there`s a mid level
trough over the central CONUS. This sets up a more active
pattern with several waves moving through the region. Ensemble
cluster analysis points to several different potential timelines
and or intensities of these low pressure systems so any
specific details at this time are a bit unclear. However the
general idea is that we`ll likely be impacted by several systems
in succession with showers. For the time being, the forecast
remains consistent with the NBM`s blend of guidance resulting in
the highest chances of showers Friday night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly prevailing VFR conditions expected. Some light
rain will impact KACY and KMIV through 16Z or so, though
visibility should remain largely VFR, then MVFR ceilings
anticipated due to low stratus between 16-21Z. A few brief
showers and brief MVFR ceilings possible for the I-95 terminals
between roughly 15-19Z, though probability of this is low. Will
maintain PROB30 group to highlight this threat. Light and
variable winds becoming S to SW around 5-10 kts. A cold front
will cross the region by around 00Z, with winds abruptly
shifting WNW and increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts near 20-25
kts possible. High confidence in overall prevailing conditions,
but low confidence on timing of any restrictions and rain.

Tonight...VFR. WNW winds will remain around 10-15 kts much of
the night, with gusts near 20-25 kts at times. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. WNW winds around 10-15 kts with gusts near 20-25
kts much of the day. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday night...VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Thursday through Friday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards expected through today. ESE winds 10-15 kts
and seas 2-3 feet. Light rain is likely for much of the coastal
waters.

A cold front will sweep quickly offshore between 7-9 PM this
evening. Winds will shift abruptly to the WNW and increase to
20-30 kts behind the front with some brief gale force wind gusts
up to 40 kts possible this evening. The winds will gradually
lessen into the daytime Tuesday. Seas building 3-6 feet tonight,
then gradually subsiding through Tuesday.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters
beginning at 7 PM this evening through Tuesday. Special Marine
Warnings could be issued to highlight the threat of a brief
period of gale force gusts this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday...SCA remains in effect for wind gusts of 25-30 kt and
seas up to 5 feet.

Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected.

Wednesday through Thursday...SCA conditions likely with wind
gusts up to 30 kt and seas building up to 6 feet.

Thursday night through Friday...SCA conditions possible late
Friday, but largely no marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Deal/Staarmann
MARINE...Deal/Staarmann