708
FXUS61 KPHI 021708
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1208 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks northeast towards our area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, bringing widespread precipitation. High pressure
and below normal temperatures return for the middle of the
week. Another cold front will track through the region Thursday
night, with high pressure building back in thereafter. Another
system may impact the region Friday night into the weekend,
before high pressure builds back in for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 12:15PM, the rain/snow line is continuing the NW
progression and is now approaching I-78. Due to current trends,
the Winter Weather Advisory running from western Montgomery
county in PA to Somerset county in NJ was allowed to expire as
a transition to rain has occurred. All other Winter Weather
Advisories remain unchanged as these areas continue to see
winter precipitation.

The previous discussion below remains on track:

The low pressure system remains the main story for the near term
period as it continues to approach the area this morning and
then off the coast by this afternoon, which will continue to bring
widespread precipitation to the region. This low will make its
closest approach to the area as it passes offshore this
afternoon, and begins departing to the northeast tonight.

In terms of the details with this system, the forecast largely
remains on track. The precipitation remains widespread across
the area with the highest PoPs (90-100%) remaining during the
daytime hours today.

Observations indicate that temperatures continue to increase
with subtle warm air advection as the system approaches.
Continuing through the day today, the onshore flow and warm
marine influence with the surface low drawing near will impact
the temperature profiles. For perspective on this, high
temperatures today will be near or a couple degrees above
freezing in the Poconos, mid 30s to near 40 degrees northwest of
the fall line, low 40s along the I-95 corridor, and in the mid
40s to low 50s in Delmarva and along the coastal areas.

Through the morning hours, the rain/snow line has inched closer
to I-78. During the afternoon, the rain/snow line has the
potential to reach into the Poconos and parts of northwest NJ.
With the aforementioned highs being near/just above freezing in
the Poconos, there is even the potential for mixing in the
higher elevations of these areas above 1,500 feet.

Regarding more details about the precipitation accumulation, QPF has
remained about the same with the latest updates. Totals continue to
range from 0.50-1.00" with localized amounts to 1.25" with the
greatest across the coastal plain and least farther inland north of
I-78.

Outside of potentially the Poconos and perhaps the higher elevations
in NW NJ, the snow that has fallen will be melting through the
day with the change to all rain and warm air moving further
inland. During the transition period from snow to rain, some
sleet is possible briefly. Due to the stronger signal of warmer
air advecting in, the transition zone from snow to rain may not
be as clean. There remains the potential for a light
accumulation of ice from freezing rain in the transition zone
near I-78. The ice accumulation looks to be a light glaze.

The Winter Weather Advisory for the southern Poconos and Sussex
County NJ is unchanged, remaining in place through the day today, as
snow and/or mixed precipitation will continue in this area until the
system departs this evening.

The Winter Weather Advisory for the next tier of counties
southeastward in northern NJ and the I-78 corridor continues.

For the remainder of the region that will see all rain or a change
to rain early on will have a good soaking all-day type of rain. A
few precipitation and/or snowfall records could be challenged. See
the Climate section below for more details on the records.

Once the low departs late this evening, a high pressure system will
build in from the southwest. This will lead to drier conditions
through tonight. Lows tonight are in the 20s for most, which may
lead to some black ice issues where any slushy snow melt refreezes
on roadways (especially north of I-78).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
By Wednesday morning, the axis of the H5 trough that will lead to
Tuesday`s widespread precipitation will be in the Gulf of Maine
vicinity, rapidly lifting northeast away from the area. A subtle
upper-level ridge axis will shift eastward across the area through
the day Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday, enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the area as a
trough digs southeastward over portions of Ontario and eventually
Quebec. The trough axis will pass to the north/glance the region
Thursday. Subtle height rises will follow with flow aloft becoming
zonal Thursday night. At the surface, high pressure will build in
from the west on Wednesday. A surface low will pass well to the
north of the area on Thursday with a strong trailing cold front
moving through by Thursday evening.

Wednesday should be a partly to mostly clear day. Highs will range
from the mid 30s across eastern PA and northern NJ to the low 40s
across southern NJ and the Delmarva. Wednesday night will feature
increasing clouds from northwest to southeast as the cold front
begins to approach the region. Lows will be in the low-mid 20s
across most of eastern PA and NJ, with upper 20s to near 30 for the
coastal plain, urban corridor, and Delmarva.

Thursday will be partly to mostly cloudy ahead of the front. While
not explicitly mentioned in the forecast at this time, a couple of
snow showers could occur with the frontal passage across the
Poconos. If this were to occur, accumulation amounts would be
light. Otherwise, it looks to remain dry. Will defer to future
shifts on potential inclusion of PoPs for this region. Highs
will generally be in the 30s northwest of I-95 and 40s
southeast. Skies should clear behind the front, but breezy
northwest winds will ensue, so it will be quite chilly.

With the cold post-frontal airmass in place, decreasing winds, and
partly to mostly clear skies, the stage will be set for a very cold
Thursday night. Lows are expected to be in the single digits across
the Poconos and into far northwestern NJ, the teens across the
remainder of eastern PA and NJ, and the low 20s across the
Delmarva.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday looks to start with high pressure centered over our area
under zonal flow aloft. Deterministic guidance still shows the
potential for a weak impulse aloft to track through the region
Friday night into Saturday. The surface high will shift
eastward and off the coast Friday night into Saturday. Ensemble
guidance still suggests the possibility of surface cyclone
formation across the Carolinas, though consensus remains that it
will be a weaker storm that will stay south of us, with only a
glancing blow. We continue to have a chance (30-50%) PoPs
across most of the area for Friday night, with the greatest
chances across southern DE and far southeastern NJ. These
ultimately may continue to come down, but trends will be
monitored in the coming days as this potential storm system gets
closer in time. The airmass in place will be cold enough that
any precipitation that does fall across the area with this
system would have the potential to be of the wintry variety.

Regardless of precipitation chances for Friday night into Saturday,
the pattern favors well below average temperatures. In fact,
temperatures may remain below freezing on Friday for most of eastern
PA and northern NJ, and only reach the mid 30s across the Delmarva
and into southern NJ. Saturday and Sunday look to remain below
average, though slightly warmer than Friday. Another cold front
could bring at least low precipitation chances and a renewed shot of
cold air Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Conditions will continue to lower to IFR for all sites
by early afternoon and rain continues for the majority of TAF
sites, with the exception of ABE and RDG where the precipitation
remains snow. However, even here the precipitation is expected
to begin mixing rain/snow, then change over to all rain. Winds
vary from site to site, with some sites northeast, others
northwest, and even southeast. Speeds are generally light 5-10
knots or less. Wind direction will settle into a northwest
direction later this afternoon for all locations. Moderate to
high confidence.

Tonight...Conditions gradually improving with rain coming to and
end though MVFR/IFR expected to start, with VFR anticipated to
return between 03-06Z. Northwest winds around 10 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots possible. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Thursday...VFR. Gusts near 20 kt expected out of the
west/northwest

Thursday Night through Friday...VFR. No significant weather.

Friday Night through Saturday...Restrictions possible (40-60%)
with rain and snow showers moving through.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are anticipated through early this morning with
seas 2-3 feet and winds out of the east to then southeast gusting to
10-20 knots.

Winds and seas will then increase later this morning. Winds will
gust to 25-30 knots and flip to be out of the north to northwest by
this evening. Occasional gusts to 35 knots are possible on the ocean
zones tonight. Seas will reach 5-7 feet tonight as well. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect beginning at 10 AM today
for the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters and at 3 PM for the Delaware
Bay. The SCA will continue through tonight for all coastal
waters.


Outlook...

Wednesday...SCA conditions linger into the first part of the
day. While winds are expected to have subsided, seas of 4-6 feet
are expected in the morning, decreasing to 2-4 feet through the
day.

Wednesday night...No marine headlines are anticipated with winds
below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

Thursday through Thursday night...SCA conditions are possible with
northwest winds 15-25 kt and seas 3-5 feet.

Friday through Saturday...No marine headlines are anticipated with
winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Widespread moderate to heavy precipitation is expected on
Tuesday, December 2nd. A few daily precipitation and/or snowfall
records could be challenged. Records for our climate sites are
listed below:

Record Precipitation (Rainfall)
                       December 2
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)        0.86"/1934
AC Airport (ACY)       1.03"/1996
AC Marina (55N)        1.18"/1929
Georgetown (GED)       1.11"/1974
Mount Pocono (MPO)     3.56"/1996
Philadelphia (PHL)     1.48"/1986
Reading (RDG)          1.29"/1981
Trenton (TTN)          2.13"/1986
Wilmington (ILG)       1.27"/1991

Record Snowfall
                       December 2
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)         3.6"/1952
AC Airport (ACY)           T/2019*
Philadelphia (PHL)      2.0"/1903
Reading (RDG)           6.0"/1929
Trenton (TTN)           3.0"/1903
Wilmington (ILG)        1.0"/1952

*Multiple years with a Trace.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ060>062.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NJZ001.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NJZ007-008.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...AKL/Guzzo
SHORT TERM...Cooper/MJL
LONG TERM...Cooper/MJL
AVIATION...AKL/MJL/Robertson
MARINE...AKL/MJL
CLIMATE...