241
FXUS61 KPHI 152310
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
710 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks on a stationary boundary over the Mid-
Atlantic late tonight through Monday morning. That front lifts
north as a warm front Tuesday through Tuesday night. Bermuda
high pressure sets up offshore Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front passes through the region Thursday afternoon and night.
High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday, possibly followed
by a cold front on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail through tonight aided
by mid-level diffluence. At the surface, stalled frontal
boundary remains situated over Virginia where a weak area of low
pressure is riding along it. This low will move offshore on
Monday as a weak area of high pressure settles south of Nova
Scotia.

For tonight and into Monday, rinse and repeat. Dreary
conditions and showery weather with periods of mist/drizzle will
continue. Cannot pick out one certain time and location where
precipitation will occur since there are a lot of mesoscale
factors in play. Long story short is there will be at least a
chance for showers across the entire forecast area tonight
(30-60%), with mainly a slight chance of showers across the area
on Monday (20-30%). PWATs are forecast to remain in the
1.25-1.75" range, so rainfall may be heavy at times. However,
flood threat is low as any heavy rain that does occur will be
brief. Total QPF through Monday will be rather light, with most
locales remaining under a tenth of an inch, however locally
higher amounts are possible.

Lows tonight will range in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on
Monday topping out in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues through much of the Short Term.
Weak low pressure approaches from the west Monday night, and
this will pull the stationary boundary south of the area north
as a warm front starting late Monday night. However, the front
will likely not lift north through the region until Tuesday
night. Cloudy skies with occasional showers from time to time,
with one shot coming late Monday night through Tuesday morning,
and then another shot Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Highs on Tuesday will be a bit warmer, generally in the low to
mid 70s north of the Fall Line and in the upper 70s south of the
Fall Line.

With the warm front north of the area on Wednesday, warm air
advection will be underway, and highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s throughout. Several shortwaves will pass through the
region, keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern finally looks to change for the end of this week
and into the weekend. Bermuda high pressure sets up offshore and
will result in a hot and increasingly humid airmass into the
region on Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s throughout, and
surface dew points will be in the low 70s. Max Heat Index
values will be in the upper 90s throughout, and Heat Advisories
may be needed.

A strong cold front will approach and pass through the region
late Thursday and Thursday night. This will spark off afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be
strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a 15% risk for
severe weather across portions of the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic on Thursday.

From there, conditions become settled into the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the north and west. An upper trough
passing through the region on Friday may touch off some showers
across northern zones, but the majority of the area should stay
dry with highs in the low to mid 80s and lower dew points. Sunny
and warm conditions continue into Saturday.

Another cold front may result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Any MVFR conditions will revert back to IFR
conditions for all terminals, with LIFR possible overnight,
mainly for KACY/KMIV. Cannot rule out some patchy fog and lower
visibility, but guidance has lower chances of reduced visibility
compared to the previous few nights. East- northeast winds
around 3-8 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Monday...IFR conditions to continue for most of Monday with
little improvements. Some showers may be around, but confidence
is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. East-
northeast winds around 10 kt. MVFR VSBYs expected in any
drizzle. Low-moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR CIGs/VSBYs in fog,
stratus, and scattered SHRA.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR. Scattered TSRA
possible with brief sub-VFR conditions, mainly in the afternoon
and evening.

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR. Scattered afternoon and
evening SHRA/TSRA with brief sub-VFR conditions.

Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Monday. East-
northeast winds around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to
18-20 kt. Seas of 3-4 feet. Periods of showers, drizzle, and
mist expected to continue through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected
through the week with max wind gusts below 20 kt and seas in the
2 to 4 ft range. VSBY restrictions in showers and fog through
Tuesday night. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
possible on Wednesday and Thursday with locally stronger winds
and higher waves.

Rip Currents...

For Monday, winds will be out of the northeast and nearly
perpendicular to shore around 10-20 MPH, with 2 to 4 foot waves
within the surf zone. Multiple swell groups are expected as
well, with the longest period being around 8 to 9 seconds. This
will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of rip
currents for all beaches.

For Tuesday, winds turn to be a bit more east-southeasterly and
decrease to around 10 MPH. Swell remains onshore but the number
of swell groups look to consolidate with the period decreasing
to 6-7 seconds. Breaking waves in the surf zone look to decrease
to 2-3 feet as a result. The combination of these factors look
to lead to a decreasing risk for the development of rip
currents, so at this time a LOW risk is forecast for all
beaches.


For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With onshore flow continuing over multiple tide cycles, water
will pile up within back bays and inlets. This will result in
some spotty minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coastline
for areas in Atlantic and Cape May County, New Jersey and Sussex
County in Delaware. Cannot rule out some spotty minor tidal
flooding within the Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River. The
overnight high tide cycle tonight looks to bring the highest
tides, with slowing declining water levels getting into this
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Georgetown and Wilmington set record low maximum temperatures
today. Please see the Record Event Reports for more information.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...DeSilva
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS
MARINE...AKL/DeSilva/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL/Hoeflich
CLIMATE...Hoeflich