749
FXUS61 KPHI 081459
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
959 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front shifts offshore early this morning, then weak
high pressure is nearby through later today. Low pressure and
its associated strong cold front moves through later Sunday.
The center of strong high pressure slides well to our south
early next week, then a cold front may cross our area later
Wednesday. High pressure then gradually approaches from the west
later Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak frontal system (hard pressed to call it a "cold" front)
moving through early this morning with showers, but the system
is weakening and showers will struggle to make it through the
entire region before dissipating. However, some may linger past
dawn, so kept some low POPs til mid morning. A bit of patchy fog
has developed mainly northwest of I-95 early this morning as
well, but it should not become widespread or particularly dense
before quickly dissipating after sunrise. Clouds should break
for sun and a pleasantly mild afternoon. After lows in the 40s
and 50s, highs should reach well into the 60s this afternoon.

Tonight, clouds return as low pressure starts to develop to our
west and south. Have some low end POPs across our northwestern
and southern zones, especially towards morning, but overall
expect it to remain dry overnight. Lows mainly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A highly amplified upper-level trough will be shifting into the East
during Sunday and Monday. This will support surface low pressure in
the Ohio Valley and toward the eastern Great Lakes. Some guidance
has this low farther east more into our area, or a secondary low
that develops along the occluded front/triple point. A mild
southwesterly flow ahead of this system and its associated strong
cold front will result in high temperatures in the 60s for most of
our area Sunday. If thicker cloud cover is delayed it could be a few
degrees warmer than currently forecast, however this probably will
not occur as most of the guidance has quite a bit of cloud cover all
day Sunday. In addition, an area of stronger forcing arrives from
the west and southwest and with moisture advection also occurring,
showers are expected to develop from southwest to northeast. Some
weak instability may develop especially in the coastal plain,
therefore an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. The
strong cold front moves through Sunday night with some increase in
wind and a quick change to cold air advection and showers coming to
an end. The coldest air however is forecast to lag behind the front.

As the cold air advection increases during Monday, high temperatures
may occur during the morning to midday hours before temperatures
start to fall during the afternoon. The strong upper-level trough
continues to arrive during Monday with shortwave energy, however
much drier air is also forecast to be advecting in. The bulk of the
day should be dry, however an extensive stratocumulus cloud deck may
persist through the day. Some sprinkles (flurries in the Poconos)
are possible, with perhaps even a few rain or snow showers at night
as the colder air depends and shortwave energy still moves through.
A notable northwesterly breeze Monday will also add a wind chill
factor. The cold air will become firmly in place Monday night with
low temperatures below freezing across pretty much the entire
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary...Modified arctic air Tuesday gives way to some warming.

Synoptic Overview...A potent upper-level trough across the area
Tuesday is forecast to lift out by the end of the day. Additional
shortwave energy however should maintain a trough from the Great
Lakes and the Northeast Wednesday and Thursday. The trough may start
to shift farther to our east during Friday. At the surface, the
center of high pressure slides well to our south Tuesday. A cold
front may cross our area later Wednesday, then high pressure
gradually approaches from the west later Thursday and Friday.

For Tuesday...A potent upper-level trough is forecast to swing
across the East with modified arctic air in place. Much of the model
guidance has a strong surface low inland of the Canadian Maritimes
during Tuesday with strong high pressure sliding across the Gulf
Coast states. This places our area in a very tight pressure
gradient. The axis of the trough should be crossing our area during
the day with the strong shortwave energy shifting to our east. Some
guidance hints at some snow showers especially during the first half
of the day, especially north of I-78. This could be mostly tied to
an upstream connection to lake effect, which sometimes is carried
this far east given strong enough flow and a strong trough axis
present (some mid level instability). The main theme of this day
however will be the cold air with high temperatures only in the low
to mid 40s (30s in the higher terrain of the Poconos to far
northwest New Jersey). A gusty west-northwest wind will also drive
wind chills down into teens and 20s to start the day, then rising
into the 30s to near 40 degrees in the afternoon. Peak wind gusts
look to be in the 30-35 mph range during the day, then diminishing
some at night. The air mass starts to moderate aloft already by
Tuesday night, therefore while it will still be cold Tuesday night
it should not be quite as cold as Monday night.

For Wednesday and Thursday...While the main upper-level trough has
already departed well to our northeast Wednesday, additional
shortwave energy diving southeastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes should maintain a trough into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
regions. As this occurs, surface high pressure centered across the
Southeast U.S. will track eastward. A notable breeze looks to be
present both Wednesday and Thursday given a tight pressure gradient
in place and the amplified synoptic pattern. A cold front may cross
our area later Wednesday, however this timing will depend on the
amplification of this trough once again southeastward. This front
looks to be weak and moisture-starved, therefore any chance for some
showers look rather low as of now. Temperatures warm some both of
these days, however highs look to be near or a little below average.

For Friday...The Mid-Atlantic region may become more situated on the
backside of the aformentioned upper-level trough as it gradually
moves away. This will determine our temperatures as a colder air
mass may be in place ahead of surface high pressure that starts to
approach from the west. Low pressure near the vicinity of the
Canadian Maritimes and incoming high pressure would keep a notable
breeze going. As of now, this time frame looks to be precipitation-
free.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Patchy sub-VFR, perhaps even IFR early, becoming VFR
by 15Z or sooner with relatively light northwest winds
generally 10 kts or less. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR likely prevails, though showers may encroach on
the region towards dawn. Winds light and variable. Moderate
confidence.

Sunday...A period of IFR conditions with showers. A
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Winds shifts occurring ahead
of with the passage of a strong cold front.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR ceilings. A snow or rain shower possible at
night (20 percent). West-northwest wind gusts to about 20
knots.

Tuesday...A snow/rain shower possible mostly early, otherwise VFR.
Westerly wind gusts to around 30 knots.

Wednesday...VFR. West-southwest wind gusts up to 30 knots possible
during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory for the ocean zones was extended until 1 PM
due to seas still around 5 feet. The remainder of the day should
be sub-SCA.

Outlook...

Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions developing, especially at
night.

Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Gale force wind gusts probable.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/RCM
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/RCM