654
FXUS61 KPHI 161128
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
628 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure moves across northern New England today before
moving into the Canadian Maritimes tonight into Monday. High
pressure slides by to our south later Tuesday, then weak low
pressure tracks eastward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic
Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front lifts north across our region
Thursday night and Friday, followed by a weak cold front Friday
night. A secondary cold front may move through Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure over northern New York state will track east and
move into the Canadian Maritimes later this morning. As it does,
it will drag a cold front through the region late this morning
and through this afternoon. An upper trough will lie over the
Northeast through Monday, and strong shortwave energy will dive
into the base of the trough and through the region during this
time. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Northern and Central
Plains will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
tonight, and into the Southeast on Monday.

The cold front is moving through the southern Poconos and Lehigh
Valley. Winds at Mount Pocono have already started gusting to 46
mph, but that seems to be highly localized to those higher
elevations. There will be a quick surge in wind gusts right
behind the immediate passage of the cold front, but the stronger
winds will probably not settle in until later this morning.

Strong northwest winds will develop. Winds at 925 mb to 850 mb
will range from 35 to 40 kt, and with clearing skies, there
should be enough mixing to result in widespread 35 to 45 mph
wind gusts. There will also be a brief window of gusts as high
as 50 mph. Wind Advisory remains in effect for southeast
Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey, the eastern shores of
Maryland, and Delaware.

Strong cold air advection over Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will
result in Lake Effect snow showers developing over western New
York and western Pennsylvania, as well as central New York. Some
of those snow showers may move into the southern Poconos and
far northwest New Jersey this afternoon. Will carry slight
chance PoPs for snow showers for those areas. Some brief snow
squalls are possible.

Winds diminish after sunset with loss of diurnal heating, but
it will remain fairly breezy through the overnight. Skies clear
out.

Winds pick up again on Monday, but will not nearly be as strong
as they will be today, generally 15 to 20 mph with 30 to 35 mph
gusts.

High temperatures in the low to mid 50s north and west of the
I-95 corridor and in the upper 50s to around 60 in southern New
Jersey and Delmarva will occur this morning, then will tumble in
the afternoon behind the cold front. Lows tonight will be in
the low to mid 30s. Highs will be well below normal values for
this time of the year on Monday, topping off in the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A chilly to cold air mass is forecast to be in place through Tuesday
night. Cyclonic flow aloft remains in place through Tuesday before
starting to ease some Tuesday night. Low pressure is forecast to be
near the Canadian Maritimes with the center of surface high pressure
sliding by to our south. This will maintain a tight pressure
gradient into Tuesday before it relaxes through Tuesday night.

The net result will be for a brisk wind to occur, however it should
diminish a decent amount Monday night as the vertical mixing weakens
quite a bit. The breeze then increases again during the day Tuesday,
however not as strong as on Monday, then it should diminish quickly
later Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. A rather dry
air mass is anticipated to be in place with surface dew points in
the 20s. This will add to the chill. The clouds should increase
during Tuesday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west, with
a front well to our south becoming more of a warm front with time.
An overrunning pattern looks to evolve, however this will battle
quite a bit of dry air initially north and eastward. This
overrunning however should strengthen some more Tuesday night with
the air mass gradually moistening and therefore some rain should
develop, with this mostly concentrated across our Delmarva zones to
perhaps far southern New Jersey (highest PoPs). If some
precipitation is able to make it as far north as the I-80 corridor
and reach the ground, it may start off as some light snow then to a
snow/rain mix. As of now, this looks like a rather low chance of
occurrence this far north and PoPs are only at about 20 percent that
far north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Summary...Turning milder to end the week and to start the weekend.
Precipitation chances mainly on the low side.

Synoptic Overview...A shortwave trough quickly exits to start
Wednesday with the flow more zonal into Thursday, then some ridging
starts to build across much of the East Thursday and into Friday. An
upper-level trough may then pivot across the Northeast Friday night
and Saturday. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic shifts eastward through Thursday. A front well to our
south Wednesday and Thursday may have a couple ripples of energy
along it. The front lifts northward as a warm front Thursday night
and Friday, then a weak cold front may cross our area Friday night
followed by a secondary cold front Saturday night.

For Wednesday and Thursday...A shortwave trough should quickly exit
to start Wednesday, taking a weak area of low pressure with it. This
would take any lingering overrunning quickly offshore. Another
impulse sliding by in the more zonal flow aloft Wednesday night
could touch off a little bit of rain, which could linger into
Thursday. As a trough amplifies across the Plains, ridging develops
downstream into our area by later Thursday. A strengthening warm
front looks to lift north as a result Thursday night and this could
result in some rain or a few showers. The signal for decent
precipitation with this warm front however is not all that high.
Temperatures will start to moderate as a result of the developing
ridging aloft and also the incoming warm front.

For Friday and Saturday...A milder air mass is forecast to be in
place ahead of an upper-level trough and associated cold fronts. An
initial cold front may come through Friday night with a secondary
one Saturday night. The timing details still need to be worked out
however, which will depend on the strength and timing of the upper-
level trough as well as the track of a surface low. More cloud cover
especially on Saturday along with a chance of some rain may hold the
temperatures down a little compared to Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Some brief SHSN may affect KRDG/KABE with sub-VFR
conditions this afternoon, but chances are too low to warrant
inclusion in the TAF. W-NW winds 20 to 25 kt with 35 to 40 kt
gusts. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts.
High confidence.

Monday...VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 30 to 35 kt gusts.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. Gusty winds diminishing.

Tuesday...Areas of sub-VFR conditions possible at night due to some
rain, especially south of KPHL.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across the waters this morning. Strong west
to northwest winds will develop by this afternoon. A Gale Warning is
in effect for all waters today for west to northwest winds 20 to 30
kt with with 35 to 40 kt gusts. Winds will diminish a bit tonight,
and there may even be a lull where winds are below gales in early
Monday morning before ramping up after sunrise. Winds may
diminish to below gales late Monday afternoon. Seas 4-7 feet.

Outlook...

Monday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions, especially during
the evening.

Tuesday through Thursday...The conditions are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong west to northwest winds will develop later this morning,
generally at 20 to 30 mph with 35 to 45 mph gusts. Min RH Values
will be 35 to 40 percent, but may be as low as 30 to 35 percent
across Delmarva. Given conditions on the ground, will go ahead and
issue a Special Weather Statement for the eastern shores of
Maryland.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>022-027.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for NJZ014-023>026.
DE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for DEZ001>003.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for DEZ004.
MD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS
MARINE...Gorse/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...