498
FXUS65 KPIH 011058
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
458 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prolonged Quiet Weather Period: High pressure and dry air will
  keep eastern Idaho completely dry with minimal cloud cover
  through the workweek, upcoming weekend, and into early
  October.

- Unseasonable Late-Week Warmth: An amplifying Great Basin ridge
  will boost lower-elevation temperatures into the upper 70s and
  lower 80s starting today and continuing through the weekend.

- No Fall-Like Weather in Sight: High confidence exists for
  above-normal temperatures and suppressed precipitation
  extending through the first full week of October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern well
into next week, resulting in a prolonged period of warm and dry
conditions. Ensembles indicate a weak shortwave passing to our north
may flatten the ridge a bit early next week, but impacts look to be
minimal with little to no precipitation and only a minor cooldown.
Temperatures will run above climatological norms through at least
late next week and likely beyond. At peak warmth, daytime
temperatures will run up to around 10 degrees above normal this
weekend with valley locations warming into the low to mid-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 454 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions forecast under high pressure and clear skies.
Afternoon winds will continue to be slightly breezy before
becoming light again overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern well
into next week, resulting in a prolonged period of warm and dry
conditions. Ensembles indicate a weak shortwave passing to our north
may flatten the ridge a bit early next week, but impacts look to be
minimal with little to no precipitation and only a minor cooldown.
Temperatures will run above climatological norms through at least
late next week and likely beyond. At peak warmth, daytime
temperatures will run up to around 10 degrees above normal this
weekend with valley locations warming into the low to mid-80s.
Minimum humidity is forecast to drop below 15 percent in localized
areas beginning Friday with more widespread humidities below 15
percent on Sunday. Winds will generally remain light outside of
occasional breezy afternoon wind gusts.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp