814
FXUS65 KPIH 161726
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1126 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy Conditions: Wind Advisory today for the Snake River
  Plain, eastern Magic Valley, Arco Desert, and Shoshone area
  for sustained winds 25 to 35 mph and gusts to 50 mph.

- Another Drastic Temperature Swing Coming: Temperatures
  tomorrow will struggle to reach the mid-40s to mid-50s.

- Frost and Freeze Risk: Freeze Watch in effect for our growing
  zones tomorrow, with hard freeze likely in areas. Similar
  temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Increased cloud cover today will inhibit daytime heating, meaning
highs will top out in the low 60s for our valleys and run about 5
degrees cooler than yesterday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
eastern Magic Valley, Shoshone area, Arco/Mud Lake Desert, and the
Snake River Plain from Noon through 10 PM tonight for sustained
winds as high as 35 mph and gusts up to around 50 mph. A Freeze
Watch is also in effect for the same aforementioned areas late
tonight into early tomorrow morning for overnight lows ranging 27 to
32 degrees with a hard freeze likely for portions of the Watch area.
We will observe a more drastic temperature change between today and
tomorrow when temperatures drop another 5 to 10 degrees as the
approaching trough digs through the region. Highs tomorrow will span
the 50s in the lower elevations and 30s and 40s in the mountainous
terrain.

Models continue to delay precipitation onset, with showers finally
shifting into the southeast highlands by late tomorrow night as the
center of low pressure rotates southeastward. Temperatures will
support snow with several inches forecast late Sunday and throughout
Monday across the Bear River Range and highlands further east while
only less than one inch is forecast across the highlands south of
the Snake River Plain. A dusting could even sneak into the Snake
Plain Monday morning, but temperatures will warm up during the day
making it fairly inconsequential if it does happen.

Low temperatures on Monday and Tuesday mornings will run very
similar to tomorrow morning, although temperature will begin to warm
slightly further west by Tuesday morning as the system continues
shifting eastward. By Wednesday night/Thursday morning, temperatures
begin to remain above freezing as we warm back into above-normal
territory for our daytime temperatures during the second half of
next week. In fact, the National Blend features highs warming into
the low 80s across the eastern Magic Valley and portions of the
Snake River Plain by next weekend. However, 500mb clusters indicate
that models are still sorting out the upper-level pattern, which
could mean temperatures cooler than currently forecast this far
out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Wind continues to be the biggest impact at our sites today with
afternoon gusts to 20-25 kts at SUN and DIJ and 25-35 kts at
BYI, PIH, and IDA. This comes as a trough is moving into the
area today and passing directly through on Sunday and Monday.
Cloud cover has been on the increase as a result, and while
there is a very small (10-15%) chance of a few sprinkles at DIJ
this afternoon, the probability is not high enough to put into
the TAF at this time. Precipitation chances will increase for
SUN and DIJ on Sunday as the trough really begins drop southward
into eastern Idaho as we remain breezy.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...AMM